10 Ways the O’s can surprise in 2009

In the 2008 season, the Baltimore Orioles won 68 games.

Based on the on-field additions and the improvement I expect in certain returning players… I am currently calling for this team to win 77 games in 2009.

A 9 game improvement would be a tremendous season for the O’s, considering the 3 best teams in baseball probably reside in the American League East.

This is in line with other projections, such as Baseball Prospectus which is projecting a 74 win season for the Orioles.

In these two linked posts below, I projected the 25 man roster, and their 2009 stats.

http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2009/02/baltimore-sports-and-life-projects.html

http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2009/02/baltimore-sports-and-life-projects-os.html

Using these as reference, I am now offering 10 ways the O’s could exceed projections and finish at-least 500 (81 wins) for the first-time since the 1997 season.

1) I project Huff to regress from his 2008 season, and finish 2009 with numbers that look like:
290 batting avg, 23 homers, 90 rbi, 850 OPS, 40 doubles

If Huff is closer to his 2008 numbers than I anticipate, that is one way the O’s can exceed current projections.

2) I project Mora to regress from his 2008 season, and finish 2009 with numbers that look like:
275 batting avg, 15 homers, 75 rbi, 745 OPS, 23 doubles

If Mora is closer to his 2008 numbers than I anticipate, that is another way the O’s can exceed current projections.

3) I believe Wieters will be the Orioles everyday catcher by the 3rd week of April… which will help the O’s reach current projections… (of course the flip-side is if he comes up later, that will regress current projections)… It would be short-sighted, but if the O’s elected not to worry about the extra-year of service time that would be gained by keeping Wieters in the minors for a few weeks…. and started him on Opening Day… expectations might be raised by a game or two.

Additionally, the quicker he ascends to the Majors.. the quicker the overall quality of the bench improves.

4) The national expectations on the O’s young OF’s Jones, and Pie are fairly minimal. Most of the projections seem to anticipate minimal 2009 growth for Jones, and indicate they believe Pie will closely resemble the player he has been in a little over 200 Major League at-bats with the Cubs.

Pie just turned 24 on February 8th… Jones turns 24 in August… I do not anticipate either coming close to reaching their ultimate ceiling this year… I do believe both will exceed the expectations of most prognosticators.

I am projecting:

Jones – 285 batting avg, 20 homers, 80 rbi, 800 OPS, 45 walks, 15 steals
Pie – 270 batting avg, 12 homers, 60 rbi, 738 OPS, 320 on-base, 418 slugging, 35 walks, 140 k’s, 20 doubles, 7 triples, 15 steals, 7 caught stealing

If they project as I forecast, the O’s can exceed current projections.

5) I believe Uehara, and Hill will combine for about 320 innings this year.. if that number is reached, and Guthrie gives the 190 innings plus he provided in 2008… the O’s will exceed current projections.

6) IfAlbers, Liz, Penn, and Pauley live up to their minor league resumes, and provide some production… the O’s can exceed expectations.

I am projecting their 2009 seasons as follows:

Albers – 18 starts, 6-9, 4.65 ERA, 120 innings, 130 hits, 85 k’s, 50 walks
Liz – 22 starts, 8-12, 5.25 ERA, 130 innings, 140 hits, 100 k’s, 80 walks
Penn – 12 starts, 4-6, 4.50 ERA, 100 IP, 100 hits, 80 k’s, 44 walks
Pauley – 7 starts, 3-3, 4.85 ERA, 85 IP, 105 hits, 55 k’s, 25 walks

I believe when the 2009 season starts, two of them will be in the rotation… and the other two will be the long-men in the pen… each of the four is going to have the opportunity to get some starts this year.

Each of them has some pedigree…. Albers was the Texas League (AA) Pitcher of the Year… and a Baseball America Top 100 prospect… Liz was a BA Top 100 prospect… Penn reached the Majors at age 20, and had major AA, and AAA success… Pauley won 14 games in AAA in 2008.

The numbers I show above are not outstanding, but are reachable… and would go a long way to the O’s surprising in 2009.

7) In the MLB Network’s preview of the O’s last night, Joe Magrane said he expected the O’s pen to be horrible… John Hart said the wildcard was Chris Ray. I agree with Hart, though I consider Ray’s 2009 production more likely to occur than he does. Ray is healthy, and is going to perform. Sherrill, Ray, and Johnson give the O’s an ability to limit games, and exceed expectations.

8) Troy Patton missed all of 2008 with a torn-labrum. To me, having him pitch most of 2009 in AAA and regaining his form should be the expectation. MacPhail has raised the bar a bit with his hot-stove comments that Patton is one to watch. If Patton proves this Spring, that he will be ready to go at the ML level, quicker than anticipated… this is another way the O’s can exceed current expectations.

9) In 2008, Bergesen, Hernandez, and Tillman had the following seasons at AA Bowie:

Bergesen – 3.22 ERA 148 IP 143 Hits 53 Earned Runs 11 Homers 27 Walks 72 K’s
Hernandez – 10-4 2.68 ERA 141IP 112 hits 166 k’s 71 walks 10 homers
Tillman – 11-4, 3.18 ERA, 135.2 IP, 115 hits, 154 k’s, 64 walks

To use a poker-term, the O’s figure to slow-play the soon to be 21 year-old Chris Tillman, and Bergesen, and Hernandez figure to be first call-ups to the Majors if a starter is needed.

The O’s could exceed current expectations, if these three provide Major League innings this year.

Let me clarify this statement… Bergesen might never be more than a fringe-starter…. but as a 5th, or a long-man in the pen… if he can give you some regular innings and throw strikes…. that can help…

Hernandez might project better in the back of a bullpen… but if the O’s have a tired staff in July… and Hernandez can come up, and give some K’s in either the back of the rotation, or as a long-man in the pen… that can help…

This team wants to logically protect the young arm of Tillman… but he produced in 130+ AA innings last year… if you get through June, and he has improved his fast-ball command… he can give the rotation a shot in the arm.

He would not have to be the guy you ultimately project him to be in 2011, and 2012… to help you as a 5th starter in 2009.

10) Markakis has improved every year… most of the National projections are calling for a regression in his 2009 stats. I believe he has not reached his peak, and that we could see another level of production out of him in 2009. If that occurs, the O’s can exceed current expectations.