End of Year Review – Running Backs and Full Backs

This off-season I have reviewed the Ravens front seven, the secondary, the offensive line, the quarterback, and the pass catchers. Our positional unit reviews will now conclude with a look at the Ravens backfield.

The Ravens running game in 2013 was an aesthetic and logistical disaster. A lingering Ray Rice hip injury and a sophomore slump by Bernard Pierce combined to make the Ravens running game 32^nd in the NFL by DVOA. The team was so bad that Advanced Football Stats guru and Ravens fan Brian Burke suggested the Ravens should abandon the run game altogether.

(Discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

So when Ray Rice was rightfully cut from Ravens after assaulting his wife, Ravens fans braced for the worst. However, somewhat shockingly, the Ravens were much better in the run game compared to 2013. While it was still below average, ranking 18^th by DVOA, it improved enough that opposing defenses had to respect it, allowing the team to excel in the passing game. And that improvement was mainly the result of veteran journeyman Justin Forsett.

Justin Forsett:

The pairing of the Ravens and Forsett was a match made in heaven. Forsett was the underutilized and underappreciated journeyman veteran from the Jacksonville Jaguars looking for a team where he could prove himself worthy of a long-term contract. The Ravens were looking for a running back that was a good fit for the team’s new zone blocking scheme. The resulting union was fantastic: Forsett finished eighth among halfbacks according Pro Football Focus and had the highest rushing yards per attempt of any running back in the entire league.

There were a lot reasons why Forsett and the Ravens were such a good match. The Ravens offensive line was one of the best in the entire league last year. I talked about how and why the Ravens offensive line was so good in the end of year review of the unit, and their influence obviously was felt in the run game. Forsett was 12^th among running backs in elusiveness rating, which is a statistic calculated by Pro Football Focus to see exactly how effective a runner outside their blocking. And while 12^th in the league is not bad, that ranking makes it clear that Forsett didn’t get the highest rushing yards per attempt on his own.

But any rating that tries to calculate a runner outside their blocking doesn’t tell the whole story, because any given runner can’t just be plugged into a blocking scheme and succeed. That’s true even if the blocking scheme is as good as the Ravens. And Forsett was an excellent match for the Ravens zone blocking scheme Shawn Brubaker discusses some of the reasons Forsett is such a good fit for the zone blocking scheme here. But I’ll go into some of them now.

Unlike power running backs, zone blocking scheme running backs need lateral quickness and an ability to make reads on the fly. Forsett has an ability to do both in spades. Look at how he avoids a Patriot linebacker with lateral quickness.

Forsett was also great at reading the defense and finding where holes were opened on the offensive line. This is a good example of how he was able to see an opening and cut back for a big gain.

The combination of these two skills made Forsett the best running back in the entire league at breaking off huge runs. Forsett led the NFL in breakaway percentage, which is the percentage of yardage that came from runs 15 yards or more, indicating Forsett’s propensity to break off big plays. Once in the open field, his lateral quickness and field vision made his all the more effective, allowing him to identify defenders tackling angles and make the necessary adjustments, as shown below.

Unfortunately, Forsett was not very effective in the passing game, gaining only 0.87 yards per passing route, which ranked 39^th in the NFL among running backs. With Torrey Smith gone, it would be helpful if Forsett could pick up the slack in the passing game the way Ray Rice could, but that seems very unlikely. These low numbers were still one of Forsett’s best years as a receiver, which means we probably shouldn’t expect much out of him in the future.

Still, considering what Forsett brings to the table, these limitations are not a big deal. Forsett just signed a three-year, $9 million dollar contract with the Ravens, which I think is great deal given the value he provides. The only reason to be hesitant about this deal is if his play this year was impossible to replicate lightning in a bottle, but given his performance in years past in similar roles, I think this contract is a huge bargain. Noted smarter-than-me-at-football-stuff person Bill Barnwell agrees, with Forsett’s contract headlining his article about the best ten deals of free agency. After a year of turmoil, the Ravens should be set at running back for the near future.

Kyle Juszczyk

Kyle Juszczyk didn’t have the kind of numbers that blew you away last year. Juszczyk had 18 receptions for 182 yards, which usually would be the type of stat line that makes you nothing more than a footnote in an article I’m writing. But watching Juszczyk, it’s hard not to get carried away imagining how he could be a matchup nightmare.

Juszczyk is a good blocker, and was ranked 9^th in blocking by Pro Football Focus. Usually, that’s where a fullback’s role would begin and end, and that would be the end of this discussion. But Juszczyk’s ability to act as a pass catcher after making the original block is a game changer. Check out how he gets in position for a pass after making an original block.

I say that he “leaks out” after making that block, but really he’s blasting a hole in the defense to get to a spot where there are no defenders in position to make a play. If Forsett and the offensive line represent patience and constant shifting while waiting for an opening, Juszczyk represents how it’s possible to so completely destroy your defender that you can make your own opening to where the defense doesn’t expect you.

But the Ravens also shift Juszczyk around in interesting ways to get him and others open. They’ll often have Juszczyk line up wide and then shift into the backfield before the ball is snapped. While Revis switches onto the receiver that is left, the other Patriots defender is confused, and no longer knows his responsibilities for the play.

Juszczyk than goes out for a route on the other side of the field. Not only did Juszczyk’s shift to the backfield create an 11 on 10 situation for the Ravens, it also created open space on the other side of the field for an 11 yard gain.

The Ravens have also shifted Juszczyk from the backfield to the wideout. This forces the opposing cornerback to shift onto the Juszczyk and a linebacker to shift onto the reciever, creating two advantageous matchups. 

Of course, Juszczyk still has a LOOOONG way to go before fulfilling his promise of a game changing matchup nightmare of a fullback that can lineup anywhere on the field and go straight through blitzing defenders before getting to his spot for the open pass. Pro Football Focus graded his contributions in the passing game as -0.6, and 18 receptions for 182 yards isn’t exactly superstar material. Still, if he even lives up to 50 percent of his potential, he will be an offensive weapon that opposing teams have to plan for. And even if he doesn’t, the way the Ravens shift his across the line of scrimmage is already paying dividends by creating mismatches and making defenders out of position.

Concluding thoughts:

Like the Ravens offensive line, the Ravens backfield looks to have completely reversed its fortunes from last season. The team has a combination of guaranteed production from Justin Forsett and high upside from Kyle Juszczyk. Taliaferro also seems to be a very serviceable backup running back, average 4.29 yards per carry last year. I have seen some mock drafts that have the Ravens taking a running back in the first round. I would be strongly opposed to spending any significant assets on a running back. The Ravens should be in a very good place in the backfield for the future.