For a very long time, there was no confusion around the Orioles’ plans at the trade deadline. For the better part of two decades they were unequivocally sellers, with the ability to move major league assets for minor league ones. They didn’t necessarily sell, but they didn’t have playoff aspirations, and generally couldn’t be confused for the alternative–buying–since there was precious little to buy for. The playoffs were a pipe dream, and the idea of bringing in pricey veterans was best left to the offseason.
Over the last three years the Orioles were unequivocally buyers. They made a surprising run to the playoffs, and have followed that with subsequent surprising runs towards surprising results. This Orioles team made it the ALCS last year, something that a generation of Orioles fans didn’t realize was actually allowed. They bought because they had a shot, they had a chance to make the playoffs and possibly win a World Series. The playoffs are basically a crap-shoot, and so you take your chances at getting there and then cross your fingers.
This season though. This season is different. The Orioles aren’t unequivocally anything. They’ve been hovering around .500 for the last month or so, just a handful of games out of a wild card appearance–a sort of pseudo-playoff purgatory that offers little solace to fans who clamor for celebrations on cool October nights. They’re also stacked in a painfully competitive division with very streaky division-mates, and are waist deep in a mediocre AL where any team could jump into the forefront of the playoff picture at any moment. Their playoff odds aren’t great, but they haven’t been in any of their recent playoff seasons. They need help on offense, but also in the rotation. They have a strong core of solid talent, but also have many key departures coming via free agency.
This team is stuck in exactly that: a pseudo-playoff purgatory. The front office claims that the team will be buyers, that they have playoff aspirations and the core talent to get there. They’re right of course. Many fans are clamoring for the club to sell some of its expiring assets, especially players like Chris Davis or Matt Wieters–guys whose replacements are ready and willing to step in at a moment’s notice. They’re right of course. Everyone is right about the direction of the franchise which has, in turn, left everyone in an anxious lurch, vacillating between whether they think the team should buy or sell.
Look no further than MLB Trade Rumors for signs of confusion:
The Orioles are speaking with other clubs to get a feel for what kind of return they could get if they market Matt Wieters, Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, Tommy Hunter and Bud Norris, Stark hears. However, rival clubs feel the O’s will only sell if they slide to six or more games back in the Wild Card race — and they’re 3.5 games out with four to play before the deadline at this time. If they make up a bit of ground, they could add a bat, but [Jason] Stark says it’d likely be a bench piece as opposed to a bigger name. Baltimore GM Dan Duquette said last week he would be a buyer regardless of the team’s play, though others have suggested that the Orioles could still end up selling if they struggle enough. – MLBTR
The Orioles are reportedly asking around to see what people think about some of their trade-able assets, and yet they might actually not trade any of them because instead they’ll be acquiring bench help. It’s so clear now.
The reality is that the O’s position is fraught with challenges. Sure, they could move some pieces now with the hopes of making yet another run deep into the playoffs. The problem there is that you’d essentially be blowing up one of the worst farm systems in the game if you truly want to acquire an impact talent. What does the 2016 roster look like then? The 2017 team?
Or you could sell. Play for another day. Then again, the Nationals played it safe a few years back by shutting down Stephen Strasburg when they had a chance to make a deep playoff run and yet a World Series birth has proven elusive. There’s something to be said for taking your shot when you have it, the near term future be damned.
The reality is that the Orioles need to make a decision about when their best chance to win a World Series actually is. Is it now? With guys like Wieters or Davis on the roster? Or is it in 2-3 years with a team lead by names like Bundy, Gausman, and Machado? Nobody truly knows the answer, but everyone has an opinion. BSL’s own Rob Shields eloquently concluded, in the face of the same evidence that we all can clearly see, that the club should sell. Rob makes a compelling argument.
That said, I can see the other side. Why they should buy. Playoff births don’t happen often, and they’re only a handful of games out of the playoff race. It’s a deficit this team has overcome several times in the past few years, so it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility.
The only thing that can be said for certain is that this is uncharted territory for the club. Dan Duquette’s front office has some big decisions ahead of him that will inevitably chart the direction for this franchise over the next 2-3 years. And while your opinion on what the club should do is as good as mine, neither of them matter as much as Dan Duquette’s.
Jeff was the owner of the Orioles blog Warehouse Worthy, which focused on making advanced statistics a part of the conversation for the average fan. Outside of baseball, Jeff is a graduate of Loyola University where he received his Bachelor’s and Master’s in Business Administration. The Maryland native currently works for an Advertising Agency in downtown Baltimore. Previously a contributor to Beyond the Boxscore, he joined Baseball Prospectus in September 2014. You can reach him at jeff.long@baltimoresportsandlife.com.