30% Of The O’s Season Remains

Entering play Friday night, the Baltimore Orioles are 57-56. This has the O’s 5.5 games back in the AL East, in 4th place within the Division. Baltimore is 2.5 games out of the 2nd Wild Card, with the Tampa Bay Rays in-between them and the LA Angels.

With 49 games remaining, the O’s are:
32-20 at home
25-36 on the road
+50 Run Differential
9th overall in Runs Scored
7th overall in Slugging %
23rd overall in On-Base %
13th overall in ERA
1st overall in fewest Errors and Fielding %
12th overall in Defensive Efficiency

There is certainly a feeling in Birdland that the 2015 O’s have proven they are not good enough. That this O’s season is similar to 2013 where the Birds exist in that vague space between true-contender and complete also-ran.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Those feelings are certainly heightened coming of that disappointing road trip which culminated in Iwakuma’s no-hitter Wednesday. Throw in the Ravens kicking off their Pre-Season opener last night, and you can understand those Orioles fans who are ready for an official end to the 2015 O’s consistently inconsistent ways.

That said, those aforementioned 49 remaining games will still be played. Or to word things another way, with 30% of the season remaining, the O’s are still within realistic striking distance of making the post-season for the 3rd time in 4 years.

Some quick hits on things that need to happen for Baltimore to surprise down the stretch:

1) The on-base % is not going to improve with this group. The offense remains power dependent. If Baltimore wants to get back to the playoffs, the offense will have to bash their way there.

2) In-general, the offense is power reliant. More specifically, the offense depends on the production of Machado, Davis, and Jones. By OPS Machado and Davis have been consistently productive this year by Month. Jones has had deeper valleys (.556 OPS in May, .561 OPS so far here in August). All three of this trio need to be on, and stay on the rest of the year.

3) Others need to join them. Wieters, Parra, Schoop can all help and they need to.  Will Hardy’s back allow him to contribute? He took some swings in Seattle which indicated he had very limited ability to turn on anything. Through 301 ab’s on the season, his OPS is under .600. It was understandable that he struggled mightily in May – as that was basically his Spring Training. But after producing at a fine rate in June (.742 OPS), he has been brutal in his subsequent 129 ab’s. Hardy is still helping the team with his glove (UZR/150 is an extremely strong 18.7), but he can’t be a black hole in the lineup the rest of the way.

4) BSL O’s Analyst Dan Moroz wrote about Paredes’ struggles here. Some patience, and a return to life from him would obviously help, even if it can not be expected. I continue to think Reimold should play more, O’s Manager Buck Showalter obviously disagrees (49 total ab’s for Reimold since July 1st). I do think Nolan’s numbers would improve with regular time, and historically he’s been someone capable of becoming scorching. He doesn’t need to hit for an entire season. Six weeks of plus play would make a difference. Pearce took place in baseball activities on August 10th. Showalter has stated Pearce could return to the team September 1st. Right now the understandable expectation is to get nothing from this group the rest of the way. At-least one of them has to give the O’s something, if the O’s are going to surprise.

5) Tillman was on fire before the ankle injury. It was not shocking to see him struggle August 11th as he made his first start since July 29th. That was Tillman’s mulligan. He has to be on the rest of the way.

6) On June 9th, Gonzalez’s era was 3.33. After his August 9th start, his era has jumped to 4.45. If he stays in the rotation (and he should given the lack of options), he has 9 starts or so remaining on the year. He has to be better than he has been the last two months.

7) Jimenez and Gausman remain x-factors. Jimenez goes into tonight having alternated between horrific, and excellent over his last 4 starts. One only has to look back to the 2nd half of his 2013 season, to hope he can get on an extended run. Gausman took some light ribbing from Baltimore fans for wearing a Saints jersey to the Ravens / NO exhibition last night. He’s taken much harder criticism for not being a fully-baked version of the pitcher he could be. He can’t help that. The arm talent is evident for all to see. What he needs is additional experience. He’s 24 years old, and has started 33 games in the Majors. You can not teach his talent. You can keep handing him the ball. It should be noted that over his last 4 starts, he’s gone at-least 7 innings 3 times, allowing 3 er or less in the extended starts (5.2 ip, and 6 er in the poor outing). The light could go fully on for him at any time. It’s hard for me to envision the O’s reaching the post-season, unless Jimenez or Gausman reach another gear.

8) I think the O’s bullpen will improve in September when the rosters expand. The issue is that there are 18 games remaining this Month. It would be hard to find a better 8th, and 9th than O’Day and Britton. Matusz remains an excellent LOOGY. Brach has been excellent overall. Givens has to help, and has the ability to do so. I’d like to see Steve Johnson up, and think he could give the O’s more today than Garcia. I don’t think the O’s are prepared to make that roster decision, so Garcia better prove to be useable. He can’t be taking up a roster spot, if you are not prepared to see him in crucial spots. If you do use him, he has to perform.

What awaits the O’s over this remaining 30% of the season? I don’t know. By what we’ve seen so far this year, the logical answer is additional frustration for O’s fans.

I started this article intending to put a bow on ’15, and look ahead to the questions of the off-season. Mainly because after 113 games, it becomes harder to imagine play being elevated. At some point you become what your record is. A game over .500 at this point of the year does say more about who you are, than being within a couple of games of a post-season birth. I decided against that though, because despite the palatable disappointment which exists; it’s hard to completely mentally move on to the questions of the Winter when it is still to-be-determined how ’15 ends.

I think Toronto has proven to be a better team, and they are clearly buoyed by their non-waiver deadline acquisitions. I think a Wild Card birth remains possible for the O’s though. New York has begun to fade as I’ve envisioned they would. The Angels and Rays have their own positives and negatives. New York, LA, Tampa Bay. None of those teams really matter when talking about the O’s. The O’s can only concern themselves with controlling their own play. It’s been a season of mediocrity to date, but remarkably the O’s could still play games that matter this October.  If the O’s play is going to improve, it better start tonight with the beginning of a 10 game home-stand (Oakland, NY Mets, Minnesota) prior to heading out to Kansas City for a rematch of the 2014 ALCS.