Talking Ravens As The 2015 Season Nears

The horrible preseason performance last night from the Baltimore Ravens means nothing to me. With respect to the annual importance of the third preseason game; neither does Saturday’s forthcoming game vs. Washington. When you get to the fourth preseason game, my hope (with only slight hyperbole) will be that the starters don’t make the trip South to Atlanta.

Let’s countdown these final days until the regular season opener (September 13th in Denver) and get on with things.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

As a fan of any team, the primary thing you want from the team you follow is to believe your team has a chance when their season begins. After making the Playoffs six times in seven seasons, the Ravens have established themselves as an example of a consistent threat.

At this point in the calendar, there are numerous Power Rankings and prognostications to be found.
Among them:

Sports Illustrated / MMQB (1st)
CBS Sports (5th)
FOX Sports (5th)
ESPN (7th)
Vegas (12th)
NFL Network (13th)

These rankings illustrate the point Brian Billick made as a guest speaker to the Ravens after practice a few weeks ago. “For the most part, there are going to be a half dozen teams that can realistically sit down and say, ‘We can win a Super Bowl,'” Billick told the players. “You don’t need to hear it from me. You know you’re one of those teams. Your pedigree allows you the knowledge to know you’re one of those teams. That’s a hell of an advantage.”  

Conceptually, I agree with the point that winning breeds winning. You can argue if it is the chicken or the egg though. Is it the processes which are in-place that foster a winning environment, or does actual winning make future wins more likely? (i.e. The idea that teams used to winning, who expect to win, will find ways to win.)

Either way, the more pertinent point is that as this ’15 season nears, Baltimore has the look of a team that again has a chance to factor in January. If you want to play Devil’s Advocate, it’s fair to say though that each season is it’s own. Once the season kicks off, it’s up to the guys on this roster to prove worthy of the existing expectations.

Some general thoughts:

1) With the hopes that recent nicks that Rick Wagner, Kelechi Osemele, and Eugene Monroe have experienced are minor; the offensive line talent is one of the primary strengths. Not just the starters, but the depth behind them.

2) Like the rest of Baltimore, I’m excited about the defensive line as well. Timmy Jernigan showed well filling in for Ngata last year. He also looked like he has the potential to collapse the pocket from the interior more often. Brandon Williams emerged last year as a beast. Carl Davis has shown signs this Summer that he’s going to be a force. Beyond that group? I like DeAngelo Tyson. Chris Canty I’ve found to be underwhelming, but obviously he has loads of experience. Kapron Lewis-Moore has missed a lot of time. What he currently is remains to be seen. Lawrence Guy is just a guy. Disappointed for Brent Urban that he is going to miss another season. If you can get positive play out of Tyson, Canty, and KLM – this group could be excellent.

3) Breshad Perriman figured to go through rookie year stuff no matter what (though maybe the rookie WR’s last year are not just exceptions, but the new reality for the position), This missed time obviously doesn’t help with the transition. At the least, have to think he won’t be a huge factor early. Hopefully he is really ready to take off after the Week 9 Bye.

4) Overall offensively, I see a lot of players who are capable of contributing. What I don’t see is elite play-making talent. Do you have a great feel for what Justin Forsett is going to provide this year? I don’t. With the line being strong, and his legs being fresh (8th year in the league, but less than 600 total carries); I think he will remain productive. I’m not sure I see him averaging 5.4 ypc again though. One thing I do believe will happen is that Forsett will continue to factor as a receiver (44 receptions last year) as he transitions into Coach Trestman’s offense.

Forsett earned his trip to the Pro Bowl last year, he really was excellent. I don’t believe I’m disparaging him though to say he has to prove himself again. Prove that last year was the new normal, and that he should not have been a 7th round pick that bounced around the league as a journeyman for years.

Lorenzo Taliaferro impressed at times in his Rookie season as a 1 cut downhill runner. He looks to be in better shape this year. Buck Allen looks interesting.

I don’t think I’m disparaging either of them to say they were both 4th round selections the last two years for a reason. That cuts both ways. 4th round picks because they showed promise. 4th round picks because questions existed with each.

This is Steve Smith Sr.’s last year, but as we enter ’15, he’s obviously the WR you feel best about. I like Mike Campanaro’s ability, he has to show he can stay on the field. I like Marlon Brown. I like Kamar Aiken. Darren Waller seems promising.

Without a stud like a  Dez Bryant, a Antonio Brown, a Demaryius Thomas, a Julio Jones, a AJ Green; it’s imperative that the Ravens get something from each of the guys they have. Not just the aforementioned RBs, and WRs; but FB Kyle Juszczyk, and the TE’s Maxx Williams, and Crockett Gillmore. (Would be interesting if Dennis Pitta shocked the world, and was ready to contribute sometime between Week 7 and after the Bye.)

Like I said initially, I see a lot of guys that can help. Distribute the ball, get lots of guys involved. That is going to often work. It just shouldn’t surprise anyone if the offense does occasionally stall, when you consider the fact that the Ravens lack guys you definitely know will win 1×1 match-ups vs. anyone.

5) One reason not to worry about lacking elite play-makers is that #5 remains under Center for the Ravens. It doesn’t matter that Coordinators come and go. It doesn’t matter if the Ravens are on the road. Joe Flacco gives the Ravens a chance to win each week. His durability is something that really should be appreciated more. Obviously if he was lost for any length of time, that would be crippling. If he was out for a part of a game, or a week or two; I have some optimism that Matt Schaub’s experience would prove useful. He doesn’t have much arm strength, and he was having a poor camp early – but he has had success in the league. In a short-term situation, I’ll be pleased to have a guy with 24k career yards available.

6) Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs combined for 29 sacks last year. They don’t need to be coddled. That said,  they are in their 10th and 13th season in the league. If you can find situations where their snaps can be reduced a bit, that would be ideal.

6a) Really like the athleticism that Za’Darius Smith has shown this Summer. He needs to factor this Fall on 3rd downs.

7) Play from the Safeties figures to be better this year. I’m very pleased by the addition of Kyle Arrington as the 3rd DB. I thought Corey Graham was missed last year, Arrington is a nice replacement. Lardarius Webb’s play improved in the 2nd half last year as he got his legs back under him. Was hoping to hear he was closer to his former self this Summer. Maybe he is saving himself for when the lights go on. Jimmy Smith was playing at a very high level when he was hurt last year. I think we can expect it might take sometime before he is completely back. The Ravens have done a good job accumulating depth in the Secondary.

8) C.J. Mosley had a ridiculously impressive rookie season. Can he reach an even higher level in Year 2?

9) Final Predictions.

9/13 @ Denver
9/20 @ Oakland
9/27 vs. Cincinnati
10/1 @ Pittsburgh
10/11 vs. Cleveland
10/18 @ San Francisco
10/26 @ Arizona
11/1 vs. San Diego
Bye Week
11/15: vs. Jacksonville
11/22: vs. St. Louis
11/30: @ Cleveland
12/6: @ Miami
12/13: vs. Seattle
12/20: vs. Kansas City
12/27: vs. Pittsburgh
1/3: @ Cincinnati

An odd schedule with five road games in the first seven weeks, and a three game home-stand in December.

You know what to expect with the AFC North games. If you can defend the home-field, and grab one on the road; you are in good shape there.

The NFC West is formidable. San Francisco looks to have slipped, but that is not a completely depleted roster. Arizona and St. Louis both have aspirations of unseating Seattle. The Seahawks have aspirations of a third consecutive Super Bowl appearance.

Denver, San Diego, Miami, and Kansas City are probably more important being Conference games, with post-season jockeying at play.

Oakland and Jacksonville are slowly improving, but a loss to either would be disappointing.

Put me down for 11-5, and a trip to the Playoffs for the seventh time in eight years.