Hardy Still A Big Asset To O’s

It’s a typical reaction to look around and see something that looks better than what you have. We all want the latest and greatest technology. We want the nice, new model as new always appeals to us. That thought process always crosses over in sports. And, you can’t really blame a fan base when it looked out at the opponents and saw young shortstops like Carlos Correa and Fransisco Lindor take over and immediately become one of the best in the game. Orioles fans got a close up look at the maturity of the Red Sox’s young shortstop Xander Bogaerts. And, with the Cubs making the playoffs with their own young shortstop in Addison Russell, it is easy for the Orioles and their fans to say, “Hey, we need one of those.”

{Discuss JJ Hardy on the BSL Boards}

There’s no way to sugarcoat the offensive season of JJ Hardy. It was, in a word, awful. The normally reliable–since he’s been in Baltimore–shortstop struggled to worst offensive season of his 11 year career. As much as one can take numbers and try to extract some positive, nothing in Hardy’s 2015 was positive. He hit just .219/.253/.311 in 114 games, adding just 14 doubles and 8 home runs. Each number, aside from the home run total, represents a career worst. To make matters worse, Hardy has another number attached to his name that will make Orioles’ fans cringe.

$29.5 million.

That’s what is owed to Hardy over the next two seasons, leading into a 2018 salary of $14 million or a $2 million buyout. The Orioles are paying top dollar for a shortstop who ranked 32nd among MLB shortstops in on base percentage and slugging percentage. He also posted the eighth worst strikeout rate and had the third worst walk rate among shortstops.

But, wait, there’s more.

Hardy is entering his age 33 season and will turn 34 in August. One could argue that Hardy is already past his prime; one would be correct. But, one could also argue that Hardy is in the “free fall” stage of his career, a point in which middle infielders tend to simply lose all offensive value. The narrative goes something like shortstop being a physically demanding position and that the years of wear and tear strip the athlete far sooner than a player who is a first baseman or an outfielder. And, by quick glance, it certainly looks as if JJ Hardy is in a free fall. 2015 was the second consecutive season in which Hardy’s slugging percentage dropped. It was the third consecutive season in which his walk total decreased, hardly a great sign for a player who seems to be slowing down. And, his strikeout rate has nearly doubled since the 2013 season.

So, it appears that the Orioles need a new shortstop. The problem is that they are paying an awful lot of money for the one who appears “done”. A trade is unlikely for two reasons. It never makes sense to trade a player when his value is at its lowest. And, a trade will never happen unless the Orioles eat a lot of money. The Orioles don’t seem like they have it in them. So, a trade is out of the question. And, given the Orioles other needs, adding a shortstop and making Hardy an expensive backup isn’t a possibility. 

It seems that JJ Hardy’s contract is the albatross of the Dan Duquette Orioles. It seems like the Orioles invested far too much on a mid-30’s shortstop. And, with a history of “just coming up short” in the free agent market, Hardy’s contract can be viewed as a reason why the Orioles enter an important hot stove season with such negativity surrounding them. Hardy’s $12.5 million salary for the 2016 season will make him the fourth highest paid shortstop in the Major Leagues. It certainly looks like sunk cost.

There is, however, a slightly optimistic view to take. That “slightly optimistic view” also happens to look much more like reality than wishful thinking.

Much of Hardy’s offensive struggles can be attributed to injuries. He opened the season on the disabled list with a left shoulder strain. He returned to the big club on May 7th. He struggled mightily in May, batting just .190/.209/.274. He rebounded in June, hitting .307/.344/.398. While the on base percentage was tied to his ability to hit for average–as it has been for his entire career–June was much more palatable. He was productive, even without the power. He began to slow, once again, in July and then tried to play through a groin injury, which eventually landed him on the disabled list again. He came back on September 8th and struggled through the rest of the season. Once the season was complete, Hardy revealed that he played the entire season with a torn labrum in his left (non-throwing) shoulder. Certainly, that could explain the power outage. It also helps give some explanation for his career worst hard hit rate of 23.7 percent, almost six percent lower than his career mark.

Ok, so where’s the optimism?

The optimism is derived from the fact that Hardy’s season was sabotaged by a torn labrum and then a couple of other minor injuries. In his healthiest stretch of the season–June and July–Hardy compiled a .265/.296/.375 batting line. While still disappointing, that line isn’t all that far behind his career line of .257/.307/.413. With an offseason to heal–surgery isn’t necessary–the labrum should heal and Hardy should enter the season much healthier than he did a year ago. With better health, Hardy’s offense should be closer to the player he’s been since coming to the Orioles in 2011. Since that 2011 season, only six Major League shortstops have provided more value, by WAR standards, than the Orioles’ shortstop. One injury riddled season should not make one want to discard a player who has been a valuable commodity.

One last word on the offense: Hardy’s process didn’t seem to change all that much. In fact, his contact percentage of 84.2 percent is right in line with his 85 percent career rate. His swing rate was identical to his career mark. Even his contact on pitches outside of the strike zone rate was the same as his career mark. While his .257 BABIP was low, it couldn’t be considered a sign of poor luck as Hardy has never been a high BABIP player, illustrated by his career BABIP of .276. All of this points to a player who suffered through injuries, not someone in a free fall. While it may be unrealistic to expect 20 to 30 home runs again, it isn’t unrealistic to expect a return to his career norms. And, as shown, those career norms rate him as one of the better shortstops in the game.

And, that’s where the real optimism can be had as the best part of Hardy’s skill set hasn’t even been addressed. Despite all of the injuries, JJ Hardy was still one of the best defensive shortstops in the sport. In just 114 games, Hardy posted a defensive runs saved mark of 4. In fact, since 2011, only Andreton Simmons has posted a better DRS than Hardy at shortstop. In 2015, Hardy’s DRS ranked 7th amongst all Major League shortstops. Despite all of the injuries and time missed, Hardy was still one of the best defensive shortstops in the sport.

More importantly to Baltimore, he was the only shortstop on the Orioles who posted a positive DRS. As Orioles fans know, that includes Manny Machado (53 innings, minus-1 DRS), Paul Janish (83.2 innings, 0 DRS), Everth Cabrera (224.1 innings, minus-4 DRS), and Ryan Flaherty (79 innings, minus-1 DRS). Each of those replacements compiled a negative UZR and were outperformed by Hardy in every defensive metric at shortstop. For a team that lacks an overpowering pitching staff, elite defense is a requirement for success. The Orioles have an elite defensive third baseman in Machado and have that same elite advantage at shortstop in Hardy. As shown in 2015, the replacements were not even close to par with Hardy.  That’s a value to the club that starts to justify the salary.

For perspective, consider that Hardy’s offensive season was truly one of the worst in the league. Yet, he still ranked as a replacement level player according to WAR. Obviously, that is all about his defensive ability making up for a truly terrible offensive season. Hardy is still one of the elite defenders at his position. Of all the full time shortstops to take the field in 2015, only nine posted a positive DRS. In a season in which he battled shoulder problems, back problems, oblique problems, and a groin problem, Hardy still played elite level defense.

It doesn’t make headlines to pay for defense or placate a disappointed fan base, but it is an area that the Orioles can control and exploit. With a dearth of quality defenders, the Orioles have a player who also has shown the ability to contribute at the plate. At this point, it is impossible to say that JJ Hardy is regressing or going into a free fall. The numbers simply don’t support that. And, most importantly, his defense hasn’t eroded at all. Right now, he looks like a player who had a terrible season with injuries. Is there a chance that the injuries don’t allow for a rebound? Of course. But, until that is demonstrated, it is reasonable to assume that JJ Hardy will hit better in 2016. With the defense remaining a constant, that gives the Orioles an upgrade without having to make a move.

In a winter in which many moves and decisions have to be made, shortstop is not one of them. The Orioles have an elite defender who should contribute much more at the plate. Should he be a cornerstone for the offense? No. But, he is a player whose defensive skills make the Orioles better. If the Orioles do have a need with an aging shortstop, it is to find a good defensive utility infielder who can give Hardy a day off once per week. 

It’s a normal reaction to look at an older player and say he’s done. It’s even more normal to want the latest and greatest new guy. With the influx of young, talented shortstops in 2015, the Orioles look to have an outdated player at shortstop. Simply, that isn’t the case. JJ Hardy still has more than enough ability to not only justify his salary, but to help the Orioles win. 

One injury-riddled season doesn’t take that away.