Baltimore Orioles Minor League Update

Faleris: At this point I’d expect to see maybe 15 to 30 innings of MLB relief work and an extended period on the DL with a minor league rehab stint. There’s just no reason to believe he is going to hold up until we see him able to string together three or four months of regular action.  Honestly, I’m not sure why there is even discussion about him as a rotation piece. If he comes out the other end of this mess as a #3/4 come 2017/2018 that’s great. Personally, I’d be thrilled if you get two years of late-inning work; bonus if you can then flip him for an everyday cost-controlled piece.

Mayo: With everything Bundy has gone through health-wise, it’s easy to forget he just turned 23 years old. I say that to emphasize the “erring on the side of caution” idea, which I agree with. He has missed a tremendous amount of time, which obviously has hurt his development. It’s hard to know for sure who he is at this point. With that said, I’m not sure I’d put him in a bullpen unless you’re ready to move him there long-term. I understand the desire to get him through a healthy season, but I would rather see him start every fifth day somewhere and limit his innings/pitch count. I think if he could get to 100 IP, pitching in the Minors on that rehab assignment and then in the O’s rotation, that would be ideal. If not, having him start on rehab and then making sure he has a regular routine in the bullpen is the next best idea.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Hunter Harvey hasn’t pitched since July 2014 because of a strained flexor mass, and fractured shin. He was shut down in the Arizona Fall League with elbow soreness. Most recently, he has been cleared to do some light throwing. Had things worked out for Harvey last year, one could have envisioned him beginning the year at Frederick, and finishing at AA Bowie. That would have had him positioned to possibly be in play with the O’s at some point during ’16. As is, he threw 87.2 innings in ’14, and missed last year. The O’s will clearly – understandably – be patient with him this year. The only real goal with him for the season has to be keeping him on a mound, right? Your general thoughts on Harvey at this point?

Faleris: I’ve learned to be conservative when it comes to high school arms that miss significant time due to injury.  Staying healthy throughout the season would be a huge win. I’d settle for no extended time on the DL, even if it means some time off due to fatigue or “scrapes and cuts here” and there. Harvey was already starting to concern some pro scouts in 2014 with respect to his arm action and the inconsistent quality of his stuff.  Baltimore needs to get him healthy and keep him on the bump so he can continue his development.

Mayo: Same kind of deal in a lot of ways as it was with Bundy, but perhaps even more so because Harvey is still so far away. Again, I agree, getting through a healthy season is objective No. 1. Anything else is gravy. It seems these days that guys come off of injuries and are effective immediately, but to expect that probably isn’t fair. I’d start him in Frederick (maybe even keep him in Extended Spring Training to monitor his workload) and then have him in the Keys’ rotation. He’ll be 21 for all of the 2016 season so there’s no harm in keeping him at that level all year if need be. Then hopefully the gloves can come off a bit more in 2017.

Baltimore Sports and Life: The O’s first selection in the draft last year was DJ Stewart. The lefty-swinging OF struggled in his first 238 professional ab’s with Aberdeen. Clearly more was expected from an advanced college bat. That said, one doesn’t want to read too much into that. Had he performed at Aberdeen, I think he likely would have begun ’16 at Frederick. Since he didn’t, I’m thinking that the O’s will have him at Delmarva to start. For me, he’s pretty easily one of the O’s Top 5 prospects. How do you view Stewart, and what will you be looking from him this year?

Faleris: We haven’t gotten to deep into our rankings at 2080, but I’d be surprised if he found his way into the top five with Givens still eligible and the enticing upside of Bundy and Harvey still hanging on by the fingernails.  His value is limited to his hit tool, and potentially a little bit of pop if he’s making enough hard contact.  Don’t forget he played in a left-handed hitters dream at (Mike Martin Field at) Dick Howser Stadium, and also had the benefit of being an advanced contact bat in a collegiate lineup (which is always going to inflate the OBP stats some). He’s a good bat. I don’t know that he’s a potentially great bat, and there’s little else in the profile that’s particularly exciting.

Mayo: Yes, Stewart is top five for sure. We have him at No. 3 currently, though we’ll re-rank the O’s Top 30 early in 2016. But just because he struggled during his summer debut, I wouldn’t rule out him making that jump to Frederick. That decision isn’t made solely on what happened in Aberdeen. If Stewart had a good instructs – the first time the team really will work on/tweak his swing, etc. – and it carries over to Spring Training, I could see him starting in the Carolina League. Stewart does have an advanced bat, though scouts were never thrilled with that deep crouch. If he can change that and still be comfortable, he might start tapping into his raw power more. Even if he starts in Delmarva, he won’t stay there long. But if he can start in Frederick and end the season in Bowie, he’d be ahead of the curve.

Baltimore Sports and Life: In a system devoid of much upside, Jomar Reyes intrigues. Projectable power. Good plate discipline. Turning 19 in February, and already has had 500 Minor League ab’s. Is he a Top 100 overall MiL prospect for you? Do you see him eventually being moved to 1st?

Faleris: My 2080 colleague Tucker Blair is the better man to weigh in heavily on Reyes (pun intended).  Look, he’s a big boy with a big boy bat.  But his feel for contact isn’t special, so he’s going to really need to fine-tune his pitch selection and make sure the empty swings don’t eat too much into the raw power. In his favor is the early signs we see of his comfort working that raw power pole-to-pole, which gives him a legit impact tool. Don’t stop believing in the upside, but keep in mind we’re in an era that boasts an expanded strike zone and accordingly an increased incidence of strikeouts. That is going to be a complicating factor for Reyes playing-up to the heights we envisioned when he stood out as a 17-year old at the complexes.  If that zone shrinks back down some I get a little more excited. First baseman long term, for me.  Probably not a Top 100 guy, even with the pop.

Mayo: You’re right that he has as much upside as anyone in the system. There’s a lot to like especially in a guy that young who has already hit full-season ball. We haven’t really dug into our Top 100 re-ranking yet, but my gut says he’s just outside of that list for the time being. I could see him being an addition as the season goes on and we need replacements, if he does what we think he’s capable of. And yes, I do see him moving to first eventually. I wouldn’t move him just yet – his arm works really well – but he’s not all that agile and that’s not going to get better with age.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Thoughts on Chance Sisco’s defensive ability behind the plate? Sisco turns 21 in February, and ended ’15 at Bowie (74 ab’s). He figures to be back at Bowie to start this coming year. For you, is he a Top 100 MiLB prospect?

Faleris: I don’t know that he’s a Top 100 guy but he’s probably in the discussion because the hit tool is nice and I think it’s an asset even in an outfield corner.  I’m open to keeping him behind the dish as long as possible, because I think he has the athleticism and smarts to learn an outfield corner in short order. Keep him working behind the dish and hope for the best. There’s a lot to work on still, including firming up the wrist and framing, getting better side-to-side, and cleaning-up the blocking.  The arm plays but I wouldn’t consider it a selling point.

Mayo: He’s another one on the outside of the Top 100, to me. The bat is legit.  I think he can really hit, albeit without much power…yet. I think a bit more will come, though he’ll be hit over power long-term. His defense is still a work in progress. You mention his youth – he still has a lot to learn behind the plate. His arm is strong, but his receiving still needs to improve. His time in the Arizona Fall League, not only handling upper-level pitching, but learning from other catchers in the league (not to mention his manager, former big league backstop Rod Barajas) should help him. If his catching comes along in 2016 and the power starts to come, I could see him sneaking into the Top 100.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Selected 37th overall in the 2013 Draft, Josh Hart has a sub .600 OPS in 907 career Minor League ab’s. What were your perceptions of Hart prior to his selection, and do you hold any hope for him as a prospect going forward?

Faleris:  He’s a tough prospect to figure out because he has been promoted fairly aggressively despite putting up uninspiring slash lines. I really like the glove and the feel for the game. If he grows into even a fringy bat he will be an asset as a fourth outfielder, which is a nice piece to have at league minimum for a number of years.  He needs to prove he can get on base consistently, even as a down-order bat, to start sniffing everyday regular status.  The injuries that plagued him in his first couple years are a full twelve months in the rearview (I believe), so it’s time to start seeing some legitimate growth.  Definitely worth following, but no longer someone I’m excited about. Pre-draft I thought he was a potential everyday player – I’m a sucker for foundational value and the glove/baserunning is a really nice starting point for a future major leaguer. But…at some point you gotta hit, right?

Mayo: Hart was definitely a toolsy, but raw, high school talent coming out of high school. I think we all knew it might take him a while to put it together. That said, it’s been a little slower than many thought/hoped. Injuries early on certainly didn’t help, but the biggest thing has been  lack of improvement in his approach at the plate and his plate discipline. The guy drew 11 walks last year. 11! I still think he could be a good top-of-the-order catalyst, but he’s going to have to buy into the whole pitch selection thing. Otherwise, he’ll be a poor-man’s Ben Revere type.

Baltimore Sports and Life: With the 36th overall selection in the 2015 Draft, the O’s selected Ryan Mountcastle. The Florida native had his initial professional experience begin in the Gulf Coast League, before finishing up at Aberdeen. I’d guess the to-be 19 year old will begin ’16 at Delmarva. His bat got him drafted, but some question his glove. What do you think projects as his best position going forward?

Faleris: I like him as a right fielder long term. I think the arm probably plays there (though I haven’t been able to see him really open up over those distances) and he has the power for a corner position. Power is really what he does well, but I’m skeptical he’ll make enough contact at the upper-levels for that power to shine through. He took impressive BPs for me pre-draft, but never really stood out as potential impact bat. He was frequently beat by good velocity or when he ran into quality breaking stuff. That’s not uncommon for any high school bat, but then again most high school bats don’t develop into impactful major league contributors.

Mayo: I think third base would be ideal. I don’t think he’ll be a shortstop long-term, that’s for sure. He has a strong arm and certain things work well. He has the offensive potential to profile well at the hot corner. If not, an outfield corner could be in his future. Again, the bat should play in either of those spots.

Baltimore Sports and Life: The Orioles will enter 2016 with a MiL system regarded as 25th to 30th overall by most. With the compensatory picks, Baltimore should have 6 of the Top 80 or so picks in the June Draft. Other than selecting the ‘Best Player Available’, what strategy would you suggest that Orioles Scouting Director Gary Rajsich employ?

Faleris: I don’t know that you can really lay out a strategy at this point – it wouldn’t really make sense given we are still seven months from the draft and a lot is going to change with respect to the pool of available players. I guess you could say it makes sense to target collegians, as it generally gets you a little more certainty in what you’re buying and a quicker return on your investment. It’ll be easier to speak specifics once 1) the actual slots are finalized and 2) we see what happens with the offseason.

Mayo: I think “best player available” is always the right strategy to employ, especially in the top 80 or so picks. Now, if they want to be creative with pool money and go after a signability guy who slides, they have flexibility because of the extra picks. But that’s still going after the best player available in the early going. Maybe that means a few more college seniors later, but so be it. The Orioles need an infusion of talent. To be cautious and go after advanced college guys only, for instance, would be a mistake.

Baltimore Sports and Life: In 2015, the O’s International Bonus Pool was 28th overall at just over $2M. With those pools being determined by reverse order of winning percentage, that number should increase in ’16. What do you feel the O’s should be looking to accomplish internationally this year?

Faleris: Signing potential impact players. It’s really as simple as that. If you aren’t going to play in the deep end then identify the kids you want as early as possible — easier said than done, and requires building relationships and convincing kids to commit to the idea of signing with you early on – and shop your excess bonus money aggressively. Given the lack of intrigue on the farm, that may be one of the more interesting assets from which Baltimore can deal when talking trades.

Mayo: This is a question better posed to Jesse Sanchez at MLB.com, since he has a better handle of what that class might look like, but in general, I think it’s the same approach. If there’s a dynamic talent out there, they should try to be aggressive and get him. Typically, I’m in favor of spreading out the money and trying to bring in both quantity and quality. But if there’s a superstar type out there, seeing the Orioles be more aggressive with the pool money they do have might make sense.

Baltimore Sports and Life: The Orioles Director of Player Development is Brian Graham. How do you evaluate Graham, and his Player Development Department? What do you think they do well, what do you question?

Faleris: I don’t have any opinion of Graham or his staff. 

Mayo: I’ve known Graham since his days with the Pirates and he’s a good baseball guy. Remember, you can only develop what you have. The top two guys in the system have been hurt, taking away two elite-level arms. I don’t think that’s indicative of an issue in how they develop pitchers. They have been able to get people up to the big leagues, with particular “success” in arms, even if it hasn’t been true impact guys (He was on the staff when Manny Machado was making his way up, so give him whatever credit you’d like for that). Sure, it would be nice if a Josh Hart had shown more improvement, but again, you only get to play with the cards you’ve been dealt.