Winning three out of four games is a nice stretch by any standard, but for the Baltimore Ravens’, this recent success is no reason for optimism. Sorry, but beating the Rams, Browns and Chargers, three of the worst teams in the NFL, is no cause for celebration, especially considering there was a home loss to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars in that stretch. At this point, success during this lost season shouldn’t be measured by wins and losses, but rather by unearthing the talents of the Ravens younger players.
The jury is still out on whether or not the Ravens have done that or will do that, but there are reasons for optimism next season. There are also reasons to believe the Ravens will continue to struggle next year. To set expectations, my fellow BSL writer Mike Randall and I will argue whether or not the Ravens will be back in 2016.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
Shawn: Reason for Optimism #1: The highest draft pick the Ravens have had since 2008
The last time the Ravens picked in the top-10, they came away with a franchise quarterback (by trading down, but still). Before that, the Ravens nabbed franchise cornerstone Terrell Suggs in the top-10. Looking back, the only top-10 pick the Ravens didn’t hit on was Travis Taylor (some would add Duane Starks to that list, but he had a successful career and was a key contributor on the Super Bowl run, so I don’t consider him a disappointment). That’s an impressive feat, and given the likelihood that the Ravens will be picking in the top 10 this year, there is plenty of reason to believe the Ravens will hit on that pick.
I don’t know who it will be yet, or even who I would recommend (though if Joey Bosa is on the board, he is the guy). Regardless, there will be a deep pool of talent to pick from in the top 10 than there would be at, say, 26, where the Ravens picked last year.
Mike: Reason for Pessimism #1: Joe Flacco’s bad habits
Something has been off with Joe Flacco’s mechanics. The glaring one is the way he has been throwing off of his back foot a lot. Almost as if he feels pressure even when it isn’t there, and it comes natural to him to fall back away from it. It’s hard to be accurate when you do that as it causes the ball to sail over the intended receivers head. On a number of occasions this has led to an interception. Flacco had thrown a pick in every game but two in the ten games he’s played in 2015. It’s such a simple thing to correct. Step into your throw. Now that he has suffered a torn ACL from getting his knee rolled up on, it’s possible he could be more susceptible to throwing off the back foot, leading to even more turnovers in the future.
Shawn: Reason for Optimism #2: Speed in the receiving corps
When Steve Smith was on the field this season, the Ravens’ passing game was fine, dynamic even, despite an over-reliance on the 36-year-old vet. Even then, though, the Ravens desperately felt the lack of speed in the receiving corps.
Trading for Chris Givens has added some speed to the unit, but Kamar Aiken, Jeremy Butler, Marlon Brown and, now, Daniel Brown, still slow things down somewhat.
Ozzie Newsome rarely makes the same mistake twice. Aside from the return of Breshad Perriman, who absolutely should not be considered a sure thing, the Ravens have a good chance of retaining Chris Givens on a small, probably one-year contract. Most importantly, Newsome has shown an increased willingness to address the receiving corps in the Joe Flacco era. He pulled off a big trade for Anquan Boldin, signed Steve Smith and Derrick Mason, and drafted Torrey Smith and Perriman early. Considering Newsome’s inactivity in the receiving corps before 2008 (remember Randy Hymes? sad days…), this is a flurry of activity. And considering how obvious the issues in the receiving corps have been this year, especially the lack of speed, Newsome will almost certainly make an addition this offseason, and the new guy will probably be fast.
Mike: Reason for Pessimism #2: Loyalty to coaches who are long overdue to be replaced
When John Harbaugh played college ball, Dean Pees was his defensive backs coach. When he was an assistant with the Eagles, Juan Castillo worked along side him during Harbaugh’s nine seasons there. Both of these coaches are not getting the most out of their units, and because of their long time ties to the head coach, will not be replaced, unless Owner, Steve Bisciotti, demands it. Pees has turned a once feared defensive unit into a soft, weak one that teams are not afraid of anymore. He threw Jimmy Smith under the bus, saying that he needs to play more aggressive, play more press coverage. Unless I’m mistaken, doesn’t the coach tell the players what coverage he wants? Too many mistakes. Too many instances of poor communication. Too many decent players on this defense for those mistakes to be happening without someone fixing it. Castillo was brought in to be the run game coordinator in 2013, and the run game was one of the worst in the league. He was the O-line coach in 2014, but we know that was Gary Kubiak’s baby and none of the running game, or O-line success can be a result of anything Castillo did. That is evident again as the O-line is regressing in 2015 with Kubiak having moved on.
Shawn: Reason for Optimism #3: The front seven is set on both sides of the football
The Ravens have always wanted to build around running the football on offense and stopping the run on defense.
Despite Marc Trestman’s unwillingness to run the ball this year, the Ravens have been reasonably effective pounding the rock despite a constant flux of injuries on the offensive line, ranking 16th in the league in yards per carry. Javorius Allen has impressed this year, and Terrance West looked good enough in a brief audition Monday night that there is reason for optimism in the backfield, especially if Justin Forsett retains his burst. A three-headed monster at running back would prolong Forsett’s career while providing three pretty unique skillsets. I’ve given up on Lorenzo Taliaferro because of his injury-prone nature, but he might contribute as well.
The offensive line, meanwhile, is stocked with talent. Jeremy Zuttah will return from injury, and John Urschel is a more than adequate replacement for Kelechi Osemele should Osemele leave in free agency as he is expected to. Marshal Yanda is an All-Pro, Rick Wagner has been improving after a disastrous start to the season, and Eugene Monroe, when healthy, has played well enough. Getting a better backup left tackle should be a priority, as James Hurst has been awful, but the line is still a strong point despite mixed results this year.
On the other side of the football, the Ravens sport the best run defending defensive tackle in the game in Brandon Williams and one of the best run defending linebackers in C.J. Mosley. They have helped the Ravens to hold opposing offenses to 3.7 yards per carry.
Daryl Smith, Timmy Jernigan and Lawrence Guy haven’t been slouches either, and Chris Canty may yet have something in the tank if he returns (unlikely considering the Ravens can save over $2 million by cutting him). The young depth in the front-seven is also exciting, including Brent Urban, Kapron Lewis-Moore and Carl Davis.
Elvis Dumervil will be back, and he is playing at a very high level this year despite shouldering a heavy load as the only competent Ravens’ pass rusher. How Terrell Suggs’ returns from injury will be critical for the pass rush, but even in the worst case scenario, Suggs should be as stout against the run as Courtney Upshaw and much more dynamic against the pass.
Adding some fresh talent to a lacking pass rush is critical, but there is no world in which Ozzie Newsome can justify taking a two-down run stuffer early in this year’s draft. That’s a very good thing for Ravens fans, who may finally see some speed and athleticism injected to this unit.
Mike: Reason for Pessimism #3: Cap situation may not let them improve much through free agency
If the Ravens are as bad as their record suggests, there is little chance that they will be able to make waves in free agency to fill holes. An impact, skill position player like an Alshon Jeffery won’t fit under the Ravens budget, as it stands now. Of course there are ways to finagle the money to make it work. But the Ravens like to wait for the market to come to them when it comes to free agents. They don’t make splash moves and they like to stockpile compensatory picks. Just once I think they need to make a sacrifice and get an Alshon Jeffery, just to see what Joe Flacco can do with a big target, downfield threat, all-around playmaker like that. Playing the waiting game in free agency lands the Ravens guys like Michael Huff, Marcus Spears, Kyle Arrington. It also landed Steve Smith though, who is the exception, and not the norm, as he was playing like he was 10 years younger before injury.
Shawn: Reason for Optimism #4: $23 million in dead cap off the books
Imagine what the Ravens could have done with an extra $23 million this year… now imagine that for next year. Haloti Ngata, Ray Rice and Jacoby Jones are all going off the books next season, so the spectre of Ray Rice will finally be gone from the team.
The Ravens are still expected to be tight against the cap, at least at the start of the offseason, but there are plenty of opportunities to save money. First: extending Joe Flacco should free up a lot of room, possibly in the eight-figure range. Among the cap casualty possibilities are Lardarius Webb (would save $3.5 million), Chris Canty ($2.15 million saved if cut), Kyle Arrington ($1.4 million saved if cut) and Matt Elam ($1.3 million). Cutting Steve Smith and re-signing him to a cheaper deal (assuming his return) is also a money saving option.
Realistically, the Ravens can free up about $15 million in cap space this year (maybe more if Joe Flacco’s extension is more team-friendly than I expect). Ozzie Newsome can do work with that kind of money, even after much of it is given out to draft picks.
Mike: Reason for Pessimism #4: Reliant on rookies
If they aren’t bringing in a top free agent, the Ravens are going to be relying on rookies at a couple positions. They were reliant on Perriman to be the starter opposite Smith at WR, but that plan backfired. Next year, WR is still a position of need. Unknown if Steve Smith will return. Perriman will be entering his rookie year as far as games go. Unless you believe in Kamar Aiken and Chris Givens, if they return, then it be another rookie WR that the Ravens would draft who could be counted on to start opposite Perriman. Cornerback play has been so bad that it has become the other position of need. Lardarius Webb has been moved back over to nickel corner, and again, unless you believe in Shareece Wright, it’s going to be a rookie CB counted on to start opposite Jimmy Smith. This is one first round pick the Ravens absolutely cannot afford to miss on.
Shawn: Reason for Optimism #5: High-upside young talents on offense
I have two guys in mind when I mention high-upside young talents: Maxx Williams and Javorius Allen. Both have flashed, both are raw and both are well coached. While I doubt the Ravens’ ability to develop receivers and cornerbacks, they have had no such issues with tight ends or running backs, so both of these young talents should develop.
Think about where Crockett Gillmore was at this point last year. He was a non-factor in the passing game, and he was an average run-blocker. Now, Gillmore is a big plus in both the passing game and the running game. Williams has even more receiving talent than Gillmore does, and his ability to make circus catches has yet to be tested. Give Joe Flacco a full offseason with this guy, and Williams could be special.
As for Allen, he has already looked really good as a receiver out of the backfield, which was expected. Where most running backs feel a need to slow down to catch the football, Allen catches the ball at full speed, giving him more ability to pick up yards after the catch and break tackles. Allen is still a work in progress running the football, but his power and vision have both been better than expected. With some more lower body drive, Allen could be a genuine power back.
While Williams is hurt (he should be back before the end of the season), Allen is handling a starter’s workload, which is a great opportunity for the young back. Offensive coordinator Marc Trestman would be wise to get Allen the ball as much as possible: Not only would it help his development, but Allen may be the Ravens’ most dynamic playmaker at this point. Even if Trestman continues to abandon the running game, though, Allen remains a big reason for optimism.
Mike: Reason for Pessimism #5: Uncertainty about many players
So many players have shown extreme regression, that you have to wonder if they can get back to the upper eschelon player they were. Eugene Monroe is a good left tackle, but lately it’s as if he is made of glass. Always some kind of injury. Staying on the O-line, Jeremy Zuttah the same. Good fit, decent center, but nagging injuries hampered his play in 2014, and he’s on IR now in 2015. Rick Wagner went from a top ten tackle in the NFL to having a pretty poor showing the very next year. How does he produce next year? The good, or bad Wagner? In the middle? Looking at the defense, I’ve already mentioned Webb’s regression, which we thought was due to recovery from injury, but the timetable for that has long passed. Jimmy Smith the same. Great, amazing, before injury in 2014. 2015, one of the worst CBs. Injury related? Webb never got back to his shutdown corner ability level. Will Jimmy Smith be the same way? C.J. Mosley another one. Runner up for rookie of the year, three-down linebacker, but now his coverage skills got worse than they were as a rookie, so he can’t be a three down LB. Which Mosely is the real one that we’ll see in 2016? Not to mention, Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil aren’t getting any younger. Too many question marks.
Shawn began his writing career with Bleacher Report as a Ravens featured columnist and Breaking News Team writer. He moved on to write for Yahoo! and work on the Ravens Central Radio podcast. Most recently, he was an Editor at the Baltimore Wire. Shawn is a 2013 graduate of the Catholic University of America.