Reviewing The Orioles Roster & Current Options

The Winter Meetings are in their third full day, and FanFest for the Baltimore Orioles is this weekend. Here we look at the O’s roster as it currently exists, and again discuss the seemingly available options.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

The Roster As Is*:  

1st – Mancini $500k
2nd – Schoop $800k
SS – Hardy $12.5M
3rd – Machado $5.9M
LF – Reimold $1.3M
CF – Jones $16.33M
RF – Alvarez $500k
C – Wieters $16M
DH – Trumbo $9M

Bench:
Flaherty – $2.2M
Joseph – $700k
Hoes – $700k
Paredes – $500k

Rotation:
Tillman – $6.2M
Jimenez – $13M
Gausman – $500k
Gonzalez – $4.9M
Wright – $500k

Bullpen:
Britton – $6.9M
O’Day – $7.75M
Brach – $1.8M
Givens – $500k
Bundy – $500k
Matusz – $4M
McFarland – $500k
(Wilson, Drake, etc…- $500K)

Total Salary = $114.48M

*Salaries are approximate.
**Have included O’Day here, but he is not officially on the roster yet. Physical pending. Both O’s Manager Buck Showalter, and EVP Dan Duquette have spoken on MLB Network the last two days and referred to the contract being done.

Current Options:

MASN’s Roch Kubtako has reported the O’s have offered Chris Davis a deal of approximately $150M. While there is some deferred money in the deal apparently, and it’s possible it could be a 6 year deal; let’s assume it’s over 7 years. For our purposes here, we will also say the Average Annual Value (AAV) is constant at $21.42M.

You can move Davis around a bit, and you could play him in RF if you wanted; but I’ll go with the assumption that he would mostly be the 1st baseman. So, you subtract out Mancini (and his contract) for Davis. This would take the total team salary to roughly $135.4M.

The flip side is that the O’s and Davis do not reach a deal.

We’ve spent months saying that if you lost Davis, the best available / most realistic options for the Orioles to try and off-set that production loss would be Justin Upton, and Alex Gordon.

Upton and Gordon were discussed in BSL’s recent O’s Roundtable, here.

BSL: ESPN also looked at where Justin Upton might wind-up, with the O’s listed as an option if Davis signs elsewhere. This mirrors what we’ve said previously. Upton has 4 straight season with an OPS between .785 and .833. By DRS and UZR/150 over the past 4 years, Upton’s been below average, to slightly above.  It’s probably fair to call him ‘average.’ If you are going to point to him playing at Petco this past year, it should be noted his numbers were much better at home. MLBTR projected Upton to receive a 7 year $147M contract – are you comfortable with that?

Armida: Yes, I am all in. Upton has been the most consistent player amongst the free agent hitters. He’s still on the right side of 30 and I’ll take the guy who has averaged 152 games played since 2011. Showing up and consistently putting up above average numbers is important. If I’m Dan Duquette, I’m hoping Davis signs elsewhere and Upton signs in Baltimore.  

Bernhardt: I’m comfortable with it. But I also remain skeptical that Baltimore’s going to be handing out any single contract over $110 million in total value or so — that’s still going to be the richest deal in Baltimore free agent history. I think it’s far more likely Baltimore chases Ben Zobrist, ends up with Matt Joyce, and trumpets that the savings from that signing are what allowed them to ink Yovani Gallardo.

Shields: Absolutely.  He would be my #2 target, behind Heyward.  Alex Gordon is close but the age difference gives the nod to Upton.  The thing I like about Upton is that his worst seasons have still been okay seasons.  The floor seems to be pretty high with him and the ceiling is a perennial AS with the potential of being an MVP candidate.  150M isn’t what it used to be anymore.  With the value of a win going up more and more, he only has to be a 3ish WAR player to be worth that deal.  On top of that, he seemingly still has a few years in his prime, which is unusual for a free agent.  I think if you get him in a better hitting environment(which includes away stadiums as well), you could see him finally be that yearly 30-40 homer guy so many people believe he can be.  Plus, he is from NOVA, which is a bonus and maybe will re-energize him.  It also wouldn’t hurt having another black athlete on the Orioles for the City of Baltimore.  Adam Jones is a great voice in the community and if Upton can be similar, that gives you some nice PR for a city that is hurting right now.

BSL: The other OF that seems plausibly obtainable is Alex Gordon. MLBTR projected a 5 year $105M deal for the KC OF. Would you rather have Gordon at that contract, vs. Davis at 6-7 years and $150-$175M?

Armida: That’s a tough call only because Gordon will be 32 and doesn’t come with the power the Orioles are built upon. Much of Gordon’s value is his elite level defense in left field. As he enters his mid-30′s, can that maintain? If it doesn’t the bat doesn’t compensate for that type of loss. I’d view Gordon as the clear fourth amongst the big free agent hitters, behind Upton, Hayward, and Davis. Gordon and Cespedes, while very different, are similar in terms of value and risk. 

Bernhardt: On those contracts, I’ll take Gordon. If Davis’s market doesn’t develop above 5/$120 million, I’m back to Davis. Gordon’s the best all-around LF in baseball right now and I’m not too worried about his age becoming an issue until the last year, perhaps two, of a five year deal. I’d like to see the Orioles maintain good team defense — that was a cornerstone of their successful 2014 team — and I don’t think Baltimore has a realistic shot at Upton or Heyward, though I’m sure their reps will be dropping the Orioles’ name in the media to help along negotiations with their real targets.

Shields:  Easily Gordon.  He’s not that much older than Davis and, much like Upton, I believe he has a relatively high floor, which isn’t the case for Davis(see 2014).  Gordon doesn’t have the power Davis brings but I could see him hit more homers in OPACY vs Royals Stadium.  He has been a 20ish homer guy but that also usually comes with a lot of doubles.  Some of those doubles in KC would be homers in Baltimore.  On top of that, he is an excellent defensive player at a more important position, is a better average hitter and has a more consistent walk rate, although it probably won’t be better than Davis in a normal Davis season.  I just don’t see Davis being worth another 2 years and another 40-70M dollars.

Without further getting into the individual merits of Davis / Upton / Gordon; the respective AAV’s should be relatively close. Meaning If prospective deals to Upton or Gordon were at the $21.42M annually offered to Davis, the O’s total team salary would again be roughly $135.4M, with Reimold replacing Paredes on the bench, Upton / Gordon taking over LF, and Mancini likely being the O’s everyday 1st baseman.

The other positional names which have come up multiple times are Pedro Alvarez, and Adam Lind. For Alvarez, let’s say it took 2 years, $12M. His defensive metrics are brutal. With the O’s, he would be asked to DH. That would force Trumbo into LF, and again have Reimold replacing Paredes on the bench. The rough total salary with Alvarez is $119.98M.  With Lind, it looks like he is being traded to Seattle, but had the O’s acquired him, it would have Baltimore in a similar ballpark as with Alvarez.

The O’s 2015 Salary was +/- $118M. How much above that are they willing to go in ’16? What becomes clear is that the O’s 2016 salary figures to be at-least $135M, unless they would make some of these additions, with the thought of pairing down from the existing roster (Britton?) later.

So, going on that idea, the O’s have at-least another $20M to play with to build their roster from what it currently is. 

If Davis / Upton / Gordon are obtained, is there additional salary available to address the rotation? For instance, if the O’s sign one of the aforementioned trio, while additionally adding Scott Kazmir at 3-4 years at $39-$52M total, you would be bumping up against a $150M total team salary.

Now, if the O’s lost out on Davis / Upton / Gordon; but signed Alvarez and Kazmir – they are back in that low-to-mid $130s range they would have been with Davis / Upton / Gordon alone.

A month ago I had illustrated that if Davis was lost, you could sign Kazmir and Samardzija. (We had went with MLBTR’s 5 year $85M projection for Samardzija, he has since signed with San Francisco for 5 years $90M.)  This idea was centered around our desire for two starting pitchers to be added, which would have Gonzalez in the bullpen (to start the year), and Wright in the bullpen, or starting in AAA. Some at our site have read this as me slighting Gonzalez. I don’t see it like that. I’m a Gonzalez fan. I like him out of the pen though, and I really like him being available as a guy that can step into the rotation when there were injuries or ineffectiveness in-front of him. Over the last 3 years, Gonzalez has made 28 starts (171.1 ip), 26 starts (159 ip), and 26 starts (144.2 ip). I think it would be ideal to limit his innings early, and have him available to jump into the rotation if need be. Based on where the O’s are currently roster wise and dollar wise, it looks like he’s going to begin the year with the starting staff. That’s not horrible by any means. You could certainly do worse. Hopefully the injuries which hampered him in ’15 are behind him.

That said, going into the year with Wright as the 5th can’t happen in my opinion.

I believe the Orioles have agreed. O’s Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Dan Duquette has stated several times this off-season his desire to add a 1-3 starter. This week he spoke of looking towards trades, vs. free agents.

It’s not surprising the O’s would rather trade for SP. The idea of taking on a known contract. However, the current limitations of the MiL system, makes it difficult to trade for the pitcher Duquette wants to target. It seems like you would have to consider adding a piece from the ML roster. Again, Britton? Maybe Givens?

Or, maybe there is a salary dump out there (James Shields?), where there is little talent wise coming from the O’s.  Shelby Miller came up yesterday prior to Miller being moved to Arizona. Clearly someone like that would be ideal, where you obtain a young talent, with a team friendly contract, and years of control. Those guys don’t grow on trees though, and that’s why Arizona paid through the roof for Miller in player cost. The O’s don’t have that ability.

Given those obstacles, it seems that the O’s would be forced back to Free Agency, likely with short-term deals with guys like Mat Latos.

Clearly you would be looking at longer term deals with guys like Wei-Yin Chen (long reported to be seeking 5 years $85M), Kazmir, Kenta Maeda, and Mike Leake.  And then a whole other level up for Johnny Cueto.

I’ve continued to come back to Kazmir. When he was a FA prior to the ’14 season, I loved him on a 2 year deal. I’m a little more apprehensive now. We’re talking about a contract likely twice as long, and he’s now 2 years older. Still, he seems like the best bet to me to give the O’s good production at a somewhat reasonable cost. That said, if you are going to pay him $13M annually, you are in the ballpark to consider others (albeit on longer contracts).

So, again… is one of Davis / Upton / Gordon + Kazmir and a $150M payroll possible?

If a $150M payroll is possible, is there another way to better allocate that salary?

If the payroll has to stay in the $135M range, and one of Davis / Upton / Gordon is signed; how do the O’s address their rotation need? As we’ve discussed previously, and mentioned a couple of times in our thoughts here, that likely leads back to Britton having to be moved.

Based on the roster as is, and what is seemingly available; what do you want to see the Orioles do to complete their team?