Ten Baltimore Ravens receivers have recorded a reception this year. Yet another, Kaelin Clay, has proven to be a valuable return specialist. Finally, Breshad Perriman, the Ravens’ first-round pick, has not yet played an NFL down. That makes 11 receivers who could return to the Ravens next season (not counting Jeremy Ross, who was cut), not to mention any free agent or draft pick brought in, so the Ravens obviously can’t keep them all. Who will be back? Let’s take a look at all 11 and try to figure it out.
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Note: By odds of coming back, I am referring to next year’s active roster, not just being on the camp roster.
Steve Smith, Sr.
This is easy: If Steve Smith wants to come back, the Ravens will have a spot for him. Most recently, Smith looks likely to try to end his career on a higher note next season. I question how well a soon to be 37-year-old receiver can come back from an Achilles rupture, but I don’t question the leadership and value Smith brings to the team regardless. Here’s hoping he makes one more try.
Odds of coming back: 80 percent
Breshad Perriman
Again, this is easy. Breshad Perriman, despite possessing the world’s slowest healing knee, was a first-round pick in 2015. Unless Perriman’s injury has completely ruined his career, he will be back.
That said, the Ravens cannot afford to trust Perriman. They came into 2015 with no viable alternatives to Perriman and Smith, and they lost both for the season. Kamar Aiken has filled in admirably, but he is limited. Nobody else has truly stood out. Injury aside, I have always questioned how quickly Breshad Perriman could translate to the pro game. A receiver with a 14-percent drop rate and who doesn’t run routes was always going to have a steep learning curve. And unfortunately, Perriman will basically be a rookie in 2016, and a rusty one at that. The Ravens can hope for Perriman to play well immediately, but they cannot rely on it again if they want to give Joe Flacco a legitimate group of weapons.
Odds of coming back: 99 percent
Kamar Aiken
Kamar Aiken is a much more interesting case than Perriman or Smith. The Ravens have nothing invested in Aiken, and he is going to be a restricted free agent this year. And though Aiken has proven he can be a functional starting receiver in the NFL, he is not nor will he ever be a truly dangerous weapon.
That said, the Ravens should definitely put at least a second-round tender on Aiken. He has continuously progressed throughout the year, culminating in a career-high 90-yard performance last week against the Seahawks. His 15-yard touchdown catch against Cleveland is a good example of Aiken’s development: A sharp route, a catch with Aiken’s strong hands and the veteran move to immediately turn up field and dive for the end zone. It’s a play a veteran should make, but it’s one few Ravens’ receivers would be able to at this point in their careers.
I’d be surprised if any team put in a claim on Aiken if he was a second-round tender, so he should be back for at least one more year.
Odds of coming back: 65 percent
Remember when Marlon Brown was a bright spot for the Ravens in what felt like a terrible year? Brown’s seven touchdowns were a bright spot in that 8-8 year… Now, Brown is completely irrelevant on a 4-9 team. What happened?
Not only did Brown never develop, he regressed. We saw it last season, in which Brown could not get separation nor make contested catches. He looked slower and less confident. This year, the effect was even more pronounced. Brown made no plus plays, and only could get open when he was uncovered. Even then, Brown dropped almost as many passes as he caught.
There is no reason for Brown to be back. He may get a chance elsewhere, but his time has run out in Baltimore.
Odds of coming back: 5 percent
As talented as Michael Campanaro is, he should be running out of chances in Baltimore. The Ravens, as injury prone as they’ve been, cannot put their trust in a player who has proven repeatedly that he can’t stay healthy.
Campanaro will absolutely be back in training camp, and if he makes it through the offseason unscathed, Camp should earn a roster spot. He has a skill set that no other Raven has, and most importantly, he’s a dynamic weapon in an offense that has lacked them. Of course, the odds of Camp staying healthy are slim to none. In sum, Camp deserves a chance, but his margin for error is very slim.
Odds of coming back: 25 percent
Here is another interesting case. Chris Givens has caught just 40 percent of his targets in Baltimore (16 catches on 40 targets), yet he has been a big play threat on a team that has desperately needed one. And in Givens’ defense, he hasn’t had a quarterback this season who was excelling on the deep ball (even Flacco was struggling with his deep ball this season).
Givens has impressed me with his ability to get open this season. He isn’t just fast, he’s explosive and quick as well. The knock on Givens’ has always been his hands, and quite frankly, they aren’t very good for an NFL receiver. He double catches a lot of balls, and he misses some easy ones.
That said, Givens has the ability get open deep that just can’t be taught. The Ravens should re-sign him to a veteran minimum deal and let him compete for one of the Ravens’ last roster spots.
Odds of coming back: 30 percent
Talk about having an up and down season. Jeremy Butler tore up minicamps, didn’t stand out in training camp, struggled in the preseason, failed to make the final roster, and now, Butler is playing better football than any Ravens’ receiver not named Kamar Aiken. The numbers are startling: Butler has caught 19-of-24 targets (79.2 percent) for 208 yards. His 41.6 yards per game mark is third on the team, and his 8.7 yards per target mark is also third on the team. Those are good numbers for a guy who didn’t look like he belonged in the NFL during the preseason.
Butler has developed into a good route runner, and his ability after the catch has been impressive. I’d like to see him make some plays downfield before I anoint Butler as a surefire returner next season, but there is no way around it: Butler has been impressive.
Odds of coming back: 40 percent
Already a fan favorite, Daniel Brown has been moderately impressive in Baltimore. His numbers would be significantly better if not for the phantom offensive pass interference call that wiped out a 52-yard touchdown, but more important are the skills Brown has flashed. I’ve seen a great knack for adjusting to the ball on deeper throws, and he has been surprisingly explosive out of his cuts. His ability to get separation on those short outs that Marc Trestman loves so much has been a big part of the third-down offense.
Brown, perhaps more so than any other Ravens, needs to have a good end to the season. If he doesn’t stand out now, Brown will probably never make it in the NFL.
Odds of coming back: 20 percent
Like Daniel Brown, the former Super Bowl hero Chris Matthews has shown a really good knack for plucking the ball out of the air on deep balls, but Matthews seems a bit more lumbering than Brown. Also like Brown, Matthews needs these last three games to stand out. Brown has shown more, though, so Matthews has an uphill battle.
Odds of coming back: 15 percent
Though Darren Waller did exactly nothing as a receiver this year (two catches on six targets for 18 yards), Waller was awesome as a gunner on punt team. Being a contributor on special teams is crucial to making the Ravens’ final roster, so Waller’s impressive talent in that regard is a big edge on guys like Brown and Matthews, who have played special teams but haven’t made the same impression. Unlike Brown and Matthews, though, Waller won’t have a chance to make an impression over the final three games.
Odds of coming back: 20 percent
Kaelin Clay
Kaelin Clay has played four reps on offense this year per Football Outsiders. If Clay returns next season, it won’t be because of his contributions on offense, but rather, his immense talent as a punt returner. Clay has returned 14 punts this year for 203 yards, including an 82-yard touchdown. He has been dangerous and steady at the same time. Unless Clay develops a fumbling problem or the Ravens end up finding another returner who can actually contribute on offense, he should be back next year as a returner.
Odds of coming back: 40 percent
In sum, despite the fact that the Ravens only have four receivers under contract for next season, I see the competition shaping up like this: Steve Smith, Breshad Perriman and Kamar Aiken (who will need to be tendered) should be back next season. The fourth spot will be a competition among everyone else on this list who is re-signed. The Ravens will probably draft a receiver to fill a fifth spot, and another veteran or returning player will fill a sixth spot. These next three games are crucial for those fighting for next year’s last few roster spots.
Shawn began his writing career with Bleacher Report as a Ravens featured columnist and Breaking News Team writer. He moved on to write for Yahoo! and work on the Ravens Central Radio podcast. Most recently, he was an Editor at the Baltimore Wire. Shawn is a 2013 graduate of the Catholic University of America.