Recent reports indicate the Orioles are considering both Yovani Gallardo and Dexter Fowler as additions to the 2016 roster. Objectively speaking, Gallardo and Fowler would both unquestionably be upgrades over what the Orioles currently have. However, Baltimore has been skittish to pull the trigger on a deal for either. Why? Gallardo and Fowler both declined qualifying offers from their respective ball clubs, meaning the O’s would have to give up their first round selection in the June draft, the 14th overall pick.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
That point got me thinking. What is the value of a 14th overall pick? Is it worth parting with for significant upgrade to your team?
With that in mind, I took a closer look at how the 14th overall picks from 1980 through 2013 drafts played out. Here are some interesting tidbits:
Of the 34 14th overall picks between 1980 and 2013, 11 of them never played in an MLB game. One of those 11 (Greg McMuntry, ’86) did not sign, and pursued a football career instead.
14th overall picks played an average of 436 games at the MLB level.
The average career bWAR (a detailed explanation of which can be found by clicking these words) of 14th overall picks between 1980 and 2013 was 5.88. Highlighted by ’93’s Derrek Lee (34.3 bWAR in 1942 games), ’07’s Jason Heyward (31.1 in 835 games), and ’88’s Tino Martinez (28.8 in 2023 games).
’11’s Jose Fernandez has produced 8.9 bWAR in just 47 career appearances, a number which should only continue to increase. But for every Jose Fernandez, there’s a guy like ’80’s Tim Maki, who never played above A ball, or ’96’s Dermal Brown, who got busy being terrible and produced -2.9 bWAR in just 271 career games. (Dermal Brown’s Google Alert for himself was just activated for the first time in it’s existence.)
Now, back to present day to look at Gallardo and Fowler.
Yovani Gallardo has appeared in 247 games over the course of his nine year MLB career, producing an even 20 bWAR during that time. The right-hander is coming off the best season of his career, a year in which he posted a 3.42 ERA and was worth 4.1 bWAR. Gallardo is 30 years old, has no significant injury history, and has shown no real troubling variation in fastball velocity. Were he to sign, Gallardo would inarguably be the anchor of Baltimore’s staff.
In eight MLB seasons, Dexter Fowler has posted 19.7 bWAR in 939 career games. Fowler is coming off a season in which he hit .250, cracked 17 home runs, and swiped 20 bags. The speedy 30 year old outfielder is better than any of the options that Baltimore currently possesses, save Adam Jones.
Given that only 8 of the 34 (23.5%) 14th overall draft picks have produced more than 10 bWAR in their careers, and the likelihood that Gallardo and Fowler would produce that in the span of say, one 3 year deal, I would probably pull the trigger on a deal for either. Being risk averse gets you nowhere in life, especially if you avoid risk for the sake of a very unlikely payoff.
