How do the O’s compare to the rest of the AL East?

Last year, the Orioles finished with an 81-81 record, which was good enough for third place in the AL East. They finished 1 game ahead of Tampa and they were well behind NY and Toronto. They were 4th in the division in runs scored, last in starters ERA and first in bullpen ERA. They entered the off-season with the thought they might lose their starting catcher, best starter, second best BP pitcher and their best power bat. Well, they only ended up losing 1 of those 4 players. To replace the loss of Chen, the Orioles are about to sign Yovanni Gallardo. Gallardo has historically been a durable starting pitcher who always has a sub 4 ERA and usually throws 180-195 innings. The Orioles other weakness last year was the corner OF spots. They have addressed that this off-season with the signing of Hyun-Soo Kim and, soon, either the addition of Dexter Fowler or a trade for a guy like Jay Bruce.

In this article we will look at where those moves would put this team in comparison to the rest of the AL East. Again, this is going with the assumption that Gallardo will be signed and one of those OFers, likely Fowler, is obtained as well. I feel it’s more of when than if at this point, especially with Spring Training about to start and the Orioles wanting to address these obvious needs.

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First, I will look at the rotation. In no particular order, here are the expected rotations for each ALE team:

Tampa: Archer, Odorizzi, Smyly, Ramirez and Moore…Cobb back mid season.
Boston: Price, Buchholz, Porcello, Rodriguez and Kelly. Owens as the 6th guy
New York: Tanaka, Sabathia, Pineda, Severino, and Eovaldi. Nova also in the mix
Toronto: Stroman, Estrada, Happ, Dickey, and Chavez. Hutchinson also in the mix
Baltimore: Gausman, Tillman, Jimenez, Gallardo, and Gonzalez. Worley in the mix as well

When you look at these rotations, a few things stand out to me. The first thing is this is a division filled with “wild cards” in terms of starting pitchers. A lot of guys that could be really good or really mediocre pitchers. Not many sure things at all. The best starter is probably Price but at his age, a decline could happen and if Archer was better than him this year, it wouldn’t surprise me. You have the young guys like Rodriguez, Stroman, Gausman, Severino, Eovaldi and Smyly who could all blow up and be really good. You also have a lot of injury concerns, especially in NY, where 4 of their top 6 guys are all injury question marks. You have a guy like Matt Moore, who looked like he could be a top of rotation guy and then he had TJ surgery and looked bad last year. Can he get back to where he was?

To me, there isn’t one rotation that stands out, as we enter the season, as CLEARLY better than the rest. I think Tampa has the best chance to emerge as the Division’s premier rotation but it’s going to depend on how Cobb and Moore perform as they continue to recover from injury. Since there are so many wild cards and so many health question marks, it is tough, IMO, to rank one rotation over another with any level of confidence. Peripherals wise, there is some separation but again, that’s tough because of how many guys are so up and down. Currently everyone is pretty bunched up. At some point, 1 or 2 teams will probably separate themselves.

The one advantage I see from the Orioles side is health. They don’t really have any health question marks in their rotation and they have 5 guys that could all throw 180 innings (yes I know Gonzalez hasn’t done that yet but he has thrown 171 innings and I think he could get to 180). What the Orioles lack in peripheral stats, they can make up for in availability and that is a very important and often overlooked “stat”. Of course, if you are available but pitching poorly, as we saw last year, that doesn’t help too much but you do expect some bounce back from these guys. It’s just a matter of how much. I would say, upside wise, the Orioles lack that, especially compared to the rest of the division. However, what they lack in ceiling, they may gain in floor (again, that wasn’t the case last year but I think things will be better). I believe Gausman getting more starts and settling into his role will help a lot.

Next, I will look at the bullpens. Here is a look at the expected bullpens for each team:

Baltimore: Britton, O’Day, Brach, Matusz, Givens, Wright, Worley
New York: Chapman, Miller, Betances, Shreve
Boston: Kimbrel, Uehara, Smith, Tazawa, Ross
Tampa: Boxberger, Farquhar, Colome, Geltz
Toronto: Osuna, Storen, Sanchez, Cecil, Loup

Obviously, there will be more guys added here but these are the premier pitchers for each team. When you look at the pens here, you see elite levels guys at the end of each pen. There were 12 guys in the top 60 in terms of WPA last year that are in the bullpens of the AL East this coming season. There are young, power arms like Smith and Givens that not a lot of people know about but they will after this season. There is good depth. In NY, you have 3 elite level closers. In Boston, you have the potential of 3 elite closers. In Baltimore, you have 3 of the top 26 pitchers in terms of WPA (relievers only) and you have arguably the best manager in baseball in terms of understanding how to use the pen.

The Yankees big 3 were ranked 1, 2, 3 in terms of K rate last year. You also have Kimbrel, Smith, Cecil, O’Day, Storen, Britton and Boxberger, who finished in the top 30 in K rate last year. There are power arms everywhere and it’s going to be tough to win games late if you need to come back against these pens. So, the question is, who has the best? I think, as we enter the year, that TB has the worst pen. With the way they develop arms, it wouldn’t surprise me if they ended up better than that but I think, with the loss of McGee, you have to put them 5th. Toronto is better than they were and they have a lot of potential upside out there but I think there is separation from the top 3 and them, at least as we enter the season.

So, as you look at the top 3, how do you separate them? Do the Orioles have an advantage because they have clear roles? Does it matter that they may not have an ego issue to deal with? In other words, are Miller and/or Betances going to cause a fuss at some point because Chapman is getting the saves? And, speaking of Chapman, how much time will he miss from the domestic violence situation? There hasn’t been a ruling from MLB yet and that is big here. I would say, with him being there the whole season that I would give the edge to NY as the best pen and even if he misses half of a season, by the time September comes around, they may be the best. However, as we enter the season and as we expect him to miss some time, I think we see the Orioles and Red Sox as being a little deeper out there currently.

Last, but not least, let’s look at the offense/defense of each team:

Tampa: Loney, Forsythe, Miller, Longo, Dickerson, Kiermeier, Souza, Morrison, Conger, Pearce
Baltimore: Davis, Schoop, Hardy, Machado, Kim, Jones, Fowler, Wieters, Trumbo
New York: McCann, Teixeira, Castro, Gregorious, Headley, Gardner, Ellsbury, Beltran, Rodriguez
Boston: Swihart, Ramirez, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Sandoval, Bradley, Betts, Castillo, Holt, Ortiz
Toronto: Martin, Encarnacion, Travis, Tulowitzki, Donaldson, Bautista, Pillar, Saunders, Smoak

A lot of elite bats with a lot of power. As we enter the season, Toronto has to be looked at as the best offense. They dwarfed the competition in runs scored last year. They were almost 130 runs better than the second place AL team in terms of runs scored last year, which was the Yankees. Their wOBA was 19 points better than the next team, wRC+ was 12 points better, slugging was 20 points here, OBP was 12 points better and they were tied for second in BA.

I also think, Tampa has to be looked at as the worst offense in the division however, there is some upside there and that could be the best offense they have had in quite some time.

Boston has a tremendous upside in their offense. Their young players really started to show a lot of promise last year, especially Betts and they have a lot of depth.

The Yankees offense was really good last year but it’s hard for me to believe their older players will continue to perform and avoid injuries.

So, for me, I would put the Orioles clearly behind Toronto and Boston and just ahead of NY because I feel the Orioles have a little more certainty offensively. If they end up getting Fowler, as I project here, that is really important to their lineup. Adding another good OBP guy, who has speed, is huge for this team.

Defensively is obviously where the Orioles help themselves. They are in good shape behind the plate, elite at 3rd and SS (hopefully, if Hardy doesn’t see decline from his injuries and age) and are solid on the right side. Jones has gotten better in CF over the last few years. The question will be the CO spots. We just don’t know how Fowler will handle RF and if Kim is good in LF. There are question marks about the arms of each of these guys and that may hurt us but as long as they make good relay throws and get it to our IFers, Baltimore should be okay.

The Rays were actually the best team in the division in terms of UZR and UZR/150, with the Orioles placing second in each stat.

The Red Sox will have an outstanding OF defense but their IF is very shaky, especially at the corners and that could hurt some of their pitching, especially Porcello.

The Yankees defense could be good but again, it depends on the health of their regulars and how father time effects them. Toronto is solid, with Donaldson, Tulowitzki, and Pillar anchoring them.

Tampa probably has a slight edge on the Orioles but its close. I would put Boston and NY 4th and 5th respectively here.

Where does this leave the division? It’s a crapshoot. The Orioles enter the season as the 3rd or 4th best overall team but this division could finish in any order and I wouldn’t be surprised. I dislike the Yankees the most but if they continue to get production out of their old guys, keep games close and get into that pen, they will be tough to beat. If Boston’s rotation is better and Sandoval and Ramirez bounce back, they could win the whole thing. Toronto needs their rotation to be good because otherwise, they are a very solid team. And the team people don’t talk about, Tampa, is built in their normal way. Good pitching, solid defense but this year, I think the offense will be better and if that’s the case and they get their pen figured out, watch out.

Where the Orioles and Blue Jays are at a disadvantage is in MiL depth. Both systems are pretty poor and if they need that one piece at the deadline to go out and obtain, they may struggle to get that player, whereas the other teams can do that. Those other teams also have close to ML ready talent in the minors to be able to go get if the need arises.

Where the Orioles are at an advantage is Buck Showalter. His ability to manage the staff and keep guys fresh could be the slight edge this team needs in what should be a close race.

Depth, health and luck will probably decide who wins this division and whoever does, will be very battle tested as they go into October.