2016 Baltimore Orioles Media Survey

Spring Training is underway, and the 2016 MLB Season is around the corner for the Baltimore Orioles. To preview this year for the O’s, Baltimore Sports and Life (BSL) has surveyed our own Orioles Analysts; as well as some other writers and analysts across the game.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Participants in this survey:
Jonathan Bernhardt – BSL O’s Analyst / The Guardian / VICE Sports
Jim Callis – MLB.com / MLBPipeline.com
Jason Collette – FanGraphs
Joe DeFrancesco – TrackMan Baseball
Rich DuBroff – CSN Mid-Atlantic
Nick Faleris – 2080 Baseball
James Gentile – Previously with The Hardball Times
Bryan Grosnick – Baseball Prospectus / BP Boston / Beyond the Boxscore
Bob Harkins – BSL Managing Editor
Jay Jaffe – Sports Illustrated
Matthew Kory – Baseball Prospectus / BP Boston / FanGraphs / VICE Sports
Joe Lemire – Vocativ
Jonathan Mayo – MLB.com / MLBPipeline.com
Steve Melewski – MASN
David Pinto – Baseball Musings
Matthew Pouliot – NBC Sports – Hardball Talk / Rotoworld
Ben Reiter – Sports Illustrated
Ken Rosenthal – FOX Sports
Eno Sarris – FanGraphs
David Schoenfield – ESPN
DJ Short – Rotoworld
Rob Shields – BSL O’s Analyst
Joe Sheehan – Sports Illustrated / Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Zach Spedden – BSL O’s Analyst / Nats Blog
Matt Snyder – CBS Sports
Paul Sporer – BSL O’s Analyst / FanGraphs
Dan Szymborski – ESPN
Brandon Warne – BSL O’s Analyst / FanGraphs
Neil Weinberg – FanGraphs / Beyond the Boxscore / The Hardball Times / NewEnglishD
Reggie Yinger – BSL O’s Analyst

Question 1) Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections had the O’s (prior to Gallardo, and Fowler) at 72 wins. The Baltimore Orioles win how many games in ’16?

Question 2) How do you rank the O’s rotation compared to the rest of the AL East? (1st best, 5th worst.)

Question 3) Do you believe Showalter is a Top 5 Manager in the Game?

Question 4) Over or under for Hyun Soo Kim finishing ’16 with a .750 OPS?

Question 5) How do you rank the O’s bullpen compared to the rest of the AL East?

Question 6) How do you rank the O’s everyday lineup (offensively) to the rest of the AL East?

Question 7) How do you rank the O’s everyday lineup (defensively) to the rest of the AL East?

Question 8) Chris Davis’ chances of providing equal or better value to the O’s over the length of the contract is?

Question 9) The Orioles need to be more active with Latin American IFA’s?

Question 10) Without an influx of high-end international talent this year; is it realistic to think the O’s can go from their cumulative (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, FanGraphs) rankings in the 25th-30th range; to jumping to the 15th-20th range this time next year?

Question 11) Is Machado one of the 10 best overall players in the game?

Question 12) Britton is a FA after the ’17 season. You would advocate the O’s attempt to extend him now?

Question 13) Over or under on Schoop finishing ’16 with an fWAR at 2.0?

Question 14) What is the primary question, or summarizing thoughts you have on the Baltimore Orioles?

– Can they capitalize on the last three years of the Machado/Jones era, as they invest more and more resources — such as 2016 draft picks — into doing so?

– Can Kevin Gausman finally break out and lead the Orioles’ rotation?

– Like their aggressiveness, worry about their future.

– What to do with Machado – if you can’t sign him, when do you trade?

– When are they going to address the underlying issues this front office and organizational culture has regarding the development of talent, especially that of pitchers?

– I think they’re trying to be the Royals 2.0. Will it work? Time will tell.

– A solid team that is probably too weak in starting pitching to win the division.

– The Orioles are certainly better than last year, and have a shot to win with a formula similar to that of the 2014 squad. (Power-hitting lineup, great bullpen, good defense). Starting rotation will likely fall between serviceable and below average; if it’s the former, it might be enough for the Orioles to get in the postseason.

– To play it safe, I’m going to say they win about 87 games, which was enough last year to get in. Whether that’s enough remains to be seen, as it contingent on both AL East teams and those outside the division.

– As for the farm system, it’s a realistic top 20 if it enters next year with Hunter Harvey and Jomar Reyes healthy, and Chance Sisco continues to hit. It would also help if Chris Lee can develop as a starter.

– Is their rotation going to be good enough to compete with the four other AL East teams?

– As always, they need to find some starting pitching to make this package (offense, okay defense, good bullpen) work again. If Kevin Gausman rounds into form, they could contend for a wild card. If Dylan Bundy does as well, then maybe they win a wild card. That seems like a stretch, so the projections are right. But put a smart manager at the helm, and he’ll take advantage if things do break right again, as they did in the past with a very similar starting rotation.

– It all comes down to pitching. Can Tillman rebound and Gausman be who everyone thinks he can be?

– The rotation is just too weak to keep up in the AL East.

– Is this a team that is in the position to make win now moves? I don’t think so, but Davis and Fowler seem like decent ones.

– It’s going to come down to the rotation. If it can be a league average group, the Orioles have a real shot, at least at a wild card spot. I’m just not confident it will happen. Gausman is the only guy I see being above average, and he’s not likely to turn into an ace. Gallardo, assuming the deal gets done, should be an upgrade, but he’s probably not going to be a difference maker with his ugly strikeout rate.

– Can 85 wins turn into 92?

– Need to learn to develop pitching, or the window is closed.

– Despite some of their placements on paper in the division, the AL East – and the AL at large – is ridiculously tight on paper and I suspect will be on the field this year, too, so there’s still very much a chance that they compete. Obviously if the YoGa deal busts, they still need pitching, but I don’t like that deal much anyway so it falling through isn’t really a negative to me.