In 2015, the Baltimore Orioles finished with a total of 217 home runs – good for third place among all MLB teams (behind the Astros and Blue Jays). However, the team’s oWAR was 17.6*, placing them in the bottom five of all American League teams. The 2016 season brings the addition of offensive players Mark Trumbo, Hyun Soo Kim and Pedro Alvarez.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
Before reviewing the lineup for the new season, I wanted to review the lineups from the past two seasons. One thing is for certain, Orioles manager Buck Showalter has no fear about moving players in and out of different lineup spots. In 2014, the Orioles used 122 different lineups and in 2015, they used 146 different lineups, the second most among all MLB teams.
Okay, time for a look at the 2016 projected lineup. An early look with many variations to follow:
Lineup Example 1
1) Manny Machado 3B
2) Hyun Soo Kim LF
3) Adam Jones CF
4) Chris Davis 1B
5) Mark Trumbo RF
6) Matt Wieters C
7) Pedro Alvarez DH
8) Jonathan Schoop 2B
9) J.J. Hardy SS
Again, the Orioles are known for mixing things up when it comes to the lineup and I doubt that will change in 2016. Fans will certainly see a mixture of Trumbo at first base and Chris Davis in right field at some point. Additionally, to give Davis a break, we could see Pedro Alvarez at first base a few games. I also suspect that the 7th-9th spots will see a lot of re-arranging – simply because of the “who’s hot” for the bottom spots. However, my initial thought is to have J.J. Hardy hitting 9th.
Prior to Kim starting spring training, his projections were decent, but translating Korean stats to the MLB level can be difficult. Despite the slow start (1 for 24 or something) – Kim is seeing a ton of pitches and making contact. Spring numbers mean very little and everyone should remain calm.
With that said, Buck could move Kim from the number two hole – which is starting to happen as big league spring training games continue – a trend that could carry over into the regular season. If that’s the case, there could be a lineup that looks as the following:
Lineup Example 2
1) Manny Machado 3B
2) Adam Jones CF
3) Chris Davis 1B
4) Mark Trumbo RF
5) Matt Wieters C
6) Hyun Soo Kim LF
7) Pedro Alvarez DH
8) Jonathan Schoop 2B
9) J.J. Hardy SS
Additionally, Kim figures to sit a few games out, especially if there is a left-handed pitcher on the bump – enter Nolan Reimold. The Orioles could see a mixture of the following lineups with Reimold hitting lead-off or batting ninth:
Lineup Example 3
1) Nolan Reimold LF
2) Manny Machado 3B
3) Adam Jones CF
4) Chris Davis 1B
5) Mark Trumbo RF
6) Matt Wieters C
7) Pedro Alvarez DH
8) Jonathan Schoop 2B
9) J.J. Hardy SS
At the end of the day, we can make an endless number of lineups, but what do the numbers say? Meaning, what gives the Orioles the best chance to score the most runs using an everyday lineup.
Lineup Example 1, when run through a simple Markov lineup simulator (projected stats for each player divided by plate appearances for rates of occurrence, etc) – produces and average of approximately 4.32 runs per game.
Lineup Example 2, when run through the same model, produces an average of approximately 4.26 runs per game.
Finally, Lineup Example 3, when run through the same model, produced an average of approximately 4.21 runs per game.
Differences between Lineup Example 1 and Lineup Example 2 is likely noise related to Kim’s OBP being pushed down to the bottom of the lineup, instead of being on base for the home run guys. Certainly not a huge difference. For Lineup Example 3, Reimold isn’t an on-base machine, but will likely hit better against lefties. You could also see a mixture of Reimold at DH and Kim in LF, with Alvarez on the bench.
One thing I didn’t mention was the “advanced” approach to setting a lineup. Sky Kalkman did a great job explaining this piece of extensive research from The Book. I could run multiple scenarios that show Matt Wieters hitting lead-off and the runs scored, etc – but it won’t happen in real life, so the point is moot.
Overall, no matter how the everyday lineup shapes up, the Orioles have a real chance of hitting more home runs in 2016 than they did in 2015. Regardless of the strike outs (oh yes, they will strike out) – the Orioles will threaten to have a very underrated offense in 2016.
*oWAR from Baseball Reference
Reggie Yinger has spent the parts of five seasons as a Player Development Coordinator for the Baltimore Orioles. He has extensive experience in computer programming and baseball.