It’s been a few solid months writing at Baltimore Sports and Life, and now it’s finally time to get the regular season underway. A benefit to my location and other writing is that I’m uniquely qualified to tell you all about the Minnesota Twins.
I live in the Twin Cities and cover the team as a reporter for the local website “Cold Omaha.”
So with the Twins coming to town to open the season, what better time to get to know the club than right now?
(Discuss this on the BSL boards here!)
The Twins surprisingly contended in 2015, ultimately falling just a handful of games shy of a Wild Card berth when many believed it could be the fifth 90-loss season in a row. And whether it was the acclimation of a burgeoning crop of prospects or the clubhouse dance parties led by unquestioned clubhouse leader Torii Hunter — since retired — one thing was clear: this was a team that wanted to fling a new contention window open, and they got started early.
Virtually every key piece is back from last year’s team. Hunter has departed, but was far more of a vocal and/or spiritual leader than he was on the field, where hit just .240/.293/.409 and faded hard down the stretch. Pretty much every key piece is back from an offense which finished eighth in runs scored is back, but whether or not that’s a good thing remains up for debate.
The club was roughly middle of the pack in scoring runs, but well below average in almost every other facet of the offensive game. The Twins finished 10th or worse among 15 American League clubs in each of the triple-slash categories, home runs, hits and also strikeouts and walks. In short, it was an impatient team that struck out a lot and didn’t get many hits, but hit a lot of doubles and triples to make up for some of it. In some circles, the idea of “cluster luck” comes up. That is, the Twins sequenced hits at just the right times to score as many runs as possible despite a dearth of opportunities. In short, it’s not a really sustainable practice.
But that isn’t a death notice for the Twins offense. Nobody in the Twin Cities is going to complain about a full season of Miguel Sano in the lineup except for visiting opposing pitchers. The club also added Byung-ho Park, giving the team the potential for two 30-home run bashers for the first time in a while. Throw in Brian Dozier (28 home runs in 2015), and there’s no shortage of power on this club. Oswaldo Arcia will provide some thump off the bench as well, and Trevor Plouffe is no slouch in that respect either. Only two Twins teams have hit 200 or more home runs in a season, but this could be the third.
The youth movement continued in earnest last year as Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario joined Sano and holdover Aaron Hicks — since moved to New York — in the lineup last year. Buxton struggled and got injured, but still possesses the tools that make him a favorite for Rookie of the Year this season. Rosario showed limited patience but good contact skills and pop, and was a force to be reckoned with defensively, showing good range and a strong, accurate arm in left field. He was first in the AL with 12 outfield assists, a number sure to go down this year as his reputation precedes him moving forward.
Defensively it’ll be a work in progress for the Twins. The specter of an outfield featuring Hicks, Buxton and Rosario had some fans salivating, but instead the team signed Park, dealt Hicks in an all-too-necessary trade to get a catcher and will attempt to shoehorn Sano in right field. There’s serious disaster potential, but it’s one way to try get another 30 homer bat into the lineup. The end result might be Plouffe in another uniform, but that’s not in the near-term future. Buxton and Rosario will cover plenty of ground and Sano has a strong arm, so it might still work out in the end. The Twins are hoping so, with a fly ball heavy staff that is still not quite ready to strike people out. We’ll see….
One way Orioles fans can relate to the Twins is having a starting staff that doesn’t have a standout. Sure the Orioles and their fans like Kevin Gausman — currently shelved with an injury — but at the outset of the season, neither team boasts a starter who is a sure-fire All Star candidate, for instance. The O’s will see a trio of guys with pretty good stuff and command in Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes, but none of the guys are going to blow it by hitters. Santana finished the season with a flourish, which is good since he was suspended basically the first half of last season. Gibson is on the upswing, perhaps sort of like Gausman, but is a bit older and is a less obvious breakout candidate. He brought the strikeout stuff after April last year and induces a ton of grounders. Hughes might be a poor match for the O’s offense, as he’s been prone to the longball and that’s what Baltimore will be known for this year. When Hughes is right, he walks nobody — just like the O’s offense — and will strike out his share of hitters. This will be an intriguing strength-vs-strength matchup.
The battle of the bullpens clearly is in favor of the Orioles this year. In fact, the O’s might have the best non-Yankees bullpen in the AL, though it helps that Greg Holland is hurt for the Royals. Where the money is made with the Twins pen is the back end, where Glen Perkins, Trevor May and Kevin Jepsen make a solid, if unspectacular core. The Twins bullpen was shaky last year, but never had that trio healthy and all together at the same time, so that’ll be a situation to monitor. Moving Casey Fien up the list a little bit helps if he can’t regain his strikeout stuff, but after returning from arm issues late last season he started to find it again. He doesn’t walk anyone, which still makes him a fine candidate to work in middle relief. Fernando Abad is just one season removed from being a monster in the A’s bullpen, but has been thoroughly mediocre the rest of his career. He’s miscast as a lefty specialist, but still better than Brian Duensing, whom he replaced. The other two guys in the bullpen — Michael Tonkin and Ryan Pressly — throw hard and have good stuff, but haven’t yet seen their results match to this point.
All told, it’s a Twins team that isn’t a great deal like the Orioles, but will probably finish with a similar record when all is said and done. Good luck to both teams as they get 2016 underway.
Orioles Analyst
Warne is a Minnesota Twins beat reporter for 105 The Ticket’s Cold Omaha website as well as a sportswriter for Sportradar U.S. in downtown Minneapolis. He also contributes to FanGraphs / RotoGraphs.