Did Tim Lincecum Ever Make Sense for the Orioles?

Tim Lincecum made some waves with basically a plainclothes workout in Arizona over the weekend.

The Orioles were one of more than a dozen teams in attendance when he threw at Scottsdale Stadium. He didn’t look too bad, according to a report by Andrew Baggarly of Mercury News. Who would know better than a reporter who covered him when he was with the Giants, after all?

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(photo credit to Caitlin O’Hara, SFGate.com)

According to Baggarly’s report — which apparently was filed from a viewing of the showcase that was aired on CSN Bay Area — he was working around 90-91 mph while showing, “Good feel for a changeup and a hard-breaking curve.”

Linececum told reporters afterward that he’d prefer to sign as a starter, but that he realized he “Might have to re-establish himself as a long reliever.”

On the surface the O’s would make some sense. Maybe sign him to a minor-league deal with incentives and send him to Norfolk to get stretched out. They sure don’t seen him as a long reliever, but in the rotation maybe he could make a dent?

The O’s opened Wednesday’s action 15th in rotation ERA at 4.35, but that’s tilted between the haves (Chris Tillman and Kevin Gausman) and the have-nots (basically anyone else who has started a game this season). Vance Worley and Tyler Wilson have decent enough numbers, but they’re not locking down spots four and five on a team with playoff aspirations.

And now it would be misleading you to suggest this is terribly likely; team executive vice president Dan Duquette splashed cold water on the idea on Sirius XM earlier in the week with the suggestion that he thinks Lincecum will end up on the West Coast. Still, what we’re trying to deduce here is if Lincecum ever made sense, and perhaps in a way maybe we can also figure out what sort of pitcher does make sense if/when the O’s look to the outside for help.

That could also be posturing. Either way, there’s no reason to totally close the door until a contract is signed. A player with Lincecum’s pedigree is rarely just freely available at this time of year, even if he’s only throwing in the low 90s.

For a point of reference, Lincecum’s average fastball velocity over the last four years has been:

2012 – 90.4

2013 – 90.2

2014 – 89.6

2015 – 87.2

And while we don’t know what working 90-91 means exactly, how strongly do we feel that he could actually “average” that velocity? I’d be skeptical. Even so, assume he splits the difference of 2013 and 2014 at 90 exactly. Neither of those years were great years for Lincecum. He was worth 1.8 fWAR in 2013 in 32 starts, and that fell all the way to 0.1 the next year.

And while clearly velocity isn’t everything, it sure seems worth noting that Lincecum’s career trajectory mirrored his fastball velocity’s pretty well.

In short it comes down to this: it’s got the potential for a feel-good story — especially if he were to land with the Giants and turn it all around — but he’s five years removed from any semblance of a quality season. There’s just no evidence to me that he moves the needle for the O’s, even if they do need to add a back-end starter at some point.

So if Lincecum isn’t the answer, who are you looking at? As a Minnesota-based writer, I could see a fit for Tommy Milone or Ricky Nolasco. Now before you have me tarred and feathered, hear me out.

Nolasco started off the season quite good, and has a solid K/BB ratio. Assuming the Orioles defense plays like it ought to, he seems like the kind of guy who’d be well propped up by that sort of thing, right? And in the worst case, maybe you get the Twins to pick up some salary and he costs still almost nothing, which works out due to the current state of the Orioles farm system.

A similar thing can be said about Milone, who can be propped up by a good defense and has proven to be a competent back-end starter in his career. With a good defense, you could steal a little value out of him. And if he stinks, you non-tender him at season’s end and wash your hands of the situation. He wouldn’t likely cost much, either.

But if you’re aiming higher, who are you going for? Julio Teheran? After the haul that Shelby Miller brought back, isn’t that a bit scary? I guess I’d like to hear names from you guys in the comments here!