We’re fast approaching the MLB All-Star break, which means before we know it the season will be passing its midpoint. Rosters for the All-Star Game will be announced on July 5th, with the Home Run Derby on July 11 and the game itself on the 12th. And then it’s on to the playoff push, which always seems to go quickly given that the All-Star break actually happens slightly past the half-way point of the season.
All this is to say that baseball’s ridiculously long season is finally getting around to the point at which the standings begin to matter, and we can begin to get an idea of which teams might be competing for playoff spots come fall. We can also start to gauge how accurate or inaccurate some of the popular preseason projections were. So let’s take a quick look at how each division is playing out, and whether the teams tabbed as preseason betting favorites are meeting expectations.
NL Central
Listed with 10/21 odds of winning their division, the Chicago Cubs were not just the NL Central favorites, but the clearest favorites in any division by a wide margin. And the Cubbies haven’t disappointed. As of the time of this writing, their win percentage is hovering around .650, and there’s been talk of them joining a club of historically great teams. It looks like a foregone conclusion that they’ll win the NL Central, though it’s worth noting that they’ve cooled off considerably since a ludicrously hot start. In June, the Cubs have barely topped .500 ball.
NL East
The Mets actually had the second-strongest odds (5/6) of any preseason division favorite, and yet they’ve struggled to gain supremacy in the NL East. In some respects it’s been a surprisingly competitive division. The Braves and Phillies have struggled as most thought they might, but the Marlins have been unexpectedly strong and the Nationals appear to finally be playing to their potential. Toward the end of June, the Nationals are the best team in the division, but it’s anybody’s ballgame between the top three.
NL West
The NL West was always thought to be a two-team race heading into 2016, and baseball fans and analysts had that right. The Giants and Dodgers are by far the best two teams in the division. What the oddsmakers at least had wrong, however, was which of them would be better. The Dodgers were tabbed as preseason favorites in the West, but thus far the Giants have been spectacular, and in fact are now on the Cubs’ heels for the distinction of National League’s best. There’s a lot of baseball to be played, but as of now the Giants’ lead over the Dodgers is eight games, which is difficult to make up even over the course of a few months.
AL Central
Pretty much everyone thought the Kansas City Royals would lead the way in the AL Central, and possibly get back to the World Series as well. The team was largely unchanged from the 2015 club that captured so much attention and admiration nationally, and entered the season as the odds-on favorite in the division. But so far it’s been the Indians surprising baseball fans and taking control of the AL Central. The Indians’ lead over the Royals (who are in second place) is five games, which gives them a clear but not unassailable advantage. However, the more alarming number might simply be the scoring differential. At the time of this writing, Cleveland has scored 81 runs more than its opponents; every other team in the Central is in the red, with Kansas City at -15.
AL East
No one seemed to know quite what to make of the AL East heading into the season. The Blue Jays, after a blistering finish to the 2015 season, came out on top as the betting favorites. But some wondered if the Red Sox, armed with new ace David Price, might get back to the top, or if the Yankees would simply find a way. No one really saw the Orioles playing .600 ball through late June, but that’s just what’s happened. The Red Sox and Blue Jays are only four and five games back respectively, however, and though the Yankees have looked decidedly mediocre, they’ve actually gotten better, playing six games above .500 through May and June after starting the season 8-14. This is a division in which it still feels like anything could happen.
AL West
In the AL West, too, oddsmakers missed the mark. The Houston Astros were the pick and appeared to be poised to build on their 2015 playoff run with another successful campaign. It hasn’t been all bad for the Astros, but the Rangers have been arguably the biggest surprise in baseball. Riding an MVP performance from Ian Desmond, a resurgent Cole Hamels, and outstanding play from a number of others, Texas is 22 games over .500 and looks like the surest bet for a playoff berth outside Wrigley Field.
If the season ended today (June 27), the playoffs would look like this: for the National League, the Nationals, Cubs, and Giants would be through with the Mets and Marlins in the Wild Card game; and for the American League, the Orioles, Indians, and Rangers, with the Red Sox and Blue Jays in the Wild Card. But even though we’re nearing the midpoint, there’s a lot of baseball to go, and in most of the divisions the picture remains pretty murky.
