In Sunday’s 5-2 loss to Tampa Bay, we saw Dylan Bundy’s first Major League start, along with the most recent examples of Pedro Alvarez and JJ Hardy adding further length to an already potent Baltimore Orioles lineup.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
Alvarez
With his homer Sunday, Alvarez now has 11 for the year. Since June 1st, he’s now 25 for his last 74, with 11 xbh’s.
His OPS for the year (.819) and against vs. RHP (.870 entering Sunday) are significantly above his career averages (.754 & .799).
I guess it’s fair to be surprised by those disparities, but overall Alvarez is doing what should be expected. He’s producing vs. RHP, and not playing against LHP (just 20 ab’s). He’s showing why he’s hit at-least 27 homers 3x times in his career; and why he provides value if he doesn’t see the field.
After posting an fWAR of 3.0 in ’13, he posted fWAR totals of 0.0, and 0.2 in ’14 and ’15. This year, he’s at 0.4.
I think there is an excellent chance that at year end it will make sense to want Alvarez back at DH for 2017.
Hardy
In 2015, Hardy maintained his defensive excellence, as shown through the UZR/150 and DRS metrics.
That was mostly overlooked, with the majority of analysis leaving Hardy dead as a player due to his horrifically poor offensive performance (.564 OPS in 114 games).
Hardy was compromised physically at the plate. It was clear that with his shoulder and back issues; he could not turn on the ball.
A player who doesn’t hit for much average, who gets on-base at a low volume (.307 for his career); is going to look that much worse at the plate when he’s no longer showing any power.
The only question for me entering this year was his health.
Once it was established this Spring that he was ready to go, I anticipated a rebound in his offensive production to his career norms.
With 2 hits Sunday, Hardy is in the midst of a 10 game hitting streak here in July. For the Month, he’s 13 of 39, with 6 xbh’s.
His season slash line of .268 /.298 /.417 looks an awful lot like his career marks of .257 /.307 /.413 does it not?
He’s healthy, and he’s showing the pop that when combined with his defense (again outstanding here in ’16) has long made him a valuable player.
One could argue that his fluke foot injury earlier this year, will be a blessing over all. Limiting his wear and tear and keeping him fresher throughout the remainder of the year.
His ability to stay in the lineup the primary remaining question for him.
Bundy
When Bundy first joined the O’s in late 2012, could anyone imagine that it would take until July 2016 to see his initial start for the Orioles?
Due to that, I appreciated today; even with the results not being what was desired.
Not desired, but not a surprise either.
He came into today not having pitched since July 6th. He hadn’t thrown more than 3 innings, and 57 pitches during any previous outing.
It was reasonable to hope for (and maybe expect) a better line than his 3.1 innings, 5 hits, 4 er, 3 bb’s, 4 k’s, 3 hr’s, on 70 pitches; but only so much better.
The stuff looked exceptional at times.
Even one of the allowed homers was a joke.
Obviously the outing wasn’t sufficient enough overall though.
It’s not reasonable to expect him to be the savior for this rotation.
If he stays in the rotation for the remainder of the year, and generally gives the O’s a chance most times out, that would be a win in my eyes.
He’s already exceeded expectations for this year by joining the rotation. The O’s turning to him today was largely based on just how ineffective every starter other than Tillman and Gausman has been, and the lack of other existing options; but was also due to the gains Bundy showed month-to-month out of the bullpen.
He came into this year having hardly pitched at-all over the last three seasons. Here we are in mid-July, with the O’s leading the AL East, and there he was getting the start.
Great for him. Potentially great for the O’s going forward. Probably not ideal for now, but here we are.
Since this past Winter, my goal for Bundy this season was 75 innings. If he starts every 5th day the rest of the year, and gives the O’s roughly +/- 5 innings and +/- 85 pitches; he’s going to finish ’16 with 115+/- innings.
Given how bad the rotation has been all year – he doesn’t have to be great to ‘help’. Competitive 5 inning starts would help. It’s reasonable to wonder if he’s currently capable of that though. If he’s not, the O’s aren’t in any worse shape than they’ve been so far on the year… but would remain in position of still needing multiple starters.
Maybe he will exceed expectations once more this year.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.