If you read the blogs and message boards around town, there is a lot of conjecture about how the staff is going to be comprised coming out of Spring Training…
Lets go over the most important variables at play here:
1) The Organization is aware that with Boston, Tampa, and New York in the division – there is no scenario where the O’s contend in 2009.
1a) If you know that you can not contend, how does that impact how you build the staff?
2) Does the team use a 12 man or a 13 man staff?
3) The health of Rich Hill, and Matt Albers
4) The contracts of Baez, and Walker
5) Option status of Penn, and Pauley
The central player in the staff to start the 2009 season, might be Rich Hill.
With no structural damage to his arm, I believe he has time to return to the mound next week, and be ready to start the season as the Orioles 3rd starter.
If he takes the mound Thursday March 19th, he could have 3, and potentially 4 starts prior to the 3rd game of the regular season April 9th.
If he can not be ready to start the season, or the Orioles decide they want to take it easy with him…. That leads to numerous other ramifications.
If Hill does not start the year on the staff, the most likely scenario would be Hendrickson joining the rotation.
If Hendrickson joins the rotation, you can justify keeping Walker as the bullpen’s second-lefty.
If Hill does make the rotation, and Hendrickson starts the year in the bullpen… what is the justification for carrying Walker as a 3rd lefty?
I think Walker was down last year, partly due to undisclosed injury; but carrying a 3rd lefty, who is only used for 1 at-bat scenarios is a poor use of roster-space.
Discussion of how the roster is built, always leads back to discussion on the O’s carrying 12 or 13 pitchers.
Carrying 13 pitchers is not a small issue. If you do that, that limits the bench to the backup Catcher (Moeller), Freel, and Wigginton. As you would be scared to use the back-up catcher in a game, that limits the bench to essentially 2 players.
One of the reasons the O’s have had horrible finishes down the stretch year after year, has been playing large stretches of seasons with limited bench strength…. Where the everyday players get tired out, and have nothing left during the stretch.
With a 3 man bench, that will only be exacerbated.
You know that Guthrie, Uehara, Sherrill, Ray, Johnson, and Hendrickson are roster locks… that is 6.
If healthy, Hill and Albers joins that group… that is 8.
That leaves a group of 8 players, as the most viable potential options.
Those players are Walker, Baez, Sarfate, Liz, Penn, Pauley, Bass, and Eaton.
Going with Sarfate, Liz, Penn, and Pauley, while releasing Walker, Baez, and Eaton should be an easy decision.
Liz, Penn, and Pauley represent youth with nothing to prove in the Minor Leagues… again, in a year where you can not contend – giving these players as much time as possible at the Major League level is key.
The idea of giving starts and time to Baez and Eaton is beyond irritating. Neither are going to raise their value of any significance to trade them for organizational depth…. Neither are going to perform at any-level that allows you to contend, and frankly neither one figures to out perform the younger existing options.
The only way you can think of having either Baez or Eaton on the Major League team Opening Day, is if you have DL’d both Hill, and Albers.
Am I the only one that would be irritated if Albers is DL’d at this point? If you deem him healthy enough to be giving him innings and time now, and he is performing… than DL’ing him prior to the season would be hard to take.
He is either healthy or he is not… if he is, then he belongs on the team. If he is not health now, then stop pitching him and risking additional damage to his arm.
At the end of the day, I continue to believe the staff can and should be built as:
Guthrie, Uehara, Hill, Liz, Penn
Sherrill
Ray
Johnson
Hendrickson
Sarfate
Pauley
Albers
With Walker, and Baez traded or released.
Pauley, and Albers available to provide spot-starts…
Bergesen, Hernandez, Tillman as the first three call-ups if a starter is required… Mickolio, McCrory, Perez options if a short-arm is needed.
This time next year, Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, Bergesen, Patton, Hernandez will all be in the mix for spots on the O’s staff.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.