Perhaps no conference has received more press this offseason than the Big 12. A sexual assault scandal that led to a head coach firing and presidential resignation at Baylor rocked a program that seemed on the verge of joining the nation’s elite. And the years-long specter of expansion has now come to a head, as the conference has decided to finally live up to its name. (maybe) As for actual football, right now this appears to be the easiest of the Power 5 conferences to pick a winner. But that’s why they play the games.
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Oklahoma – The Sooners return an offense loaded with playmakers and, most importantly, the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year in QB Baker Mayfield. They have a couple spots on the O-line to fill, but the Sooners will again score and score often. Defensively they return most of a secondary that ranked #9 in the country in defensive pass efficiency, which should help them in a conference that features aerial shootouts on a weekly basis. Oklahoma’s problem last season was stopping the run. In each of their two losses (Texas and Clemson) they surrendered over 300 yards on the ground. If the Sooners can be respectable against the run and keep Mayfield healthy, they should repeat as Big 12 Champs. Early season non-conference games against Houston and Ohio State could make a playoff return another matter, however.
TCU – One team in the Big 12 that should be pretty good on the defensive side of the ball this season is TCU. They’d better be, because there is a lot of rebuilding to do on offense. One thing that will help greatly is if Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill can immediately take control of the QB position. Further complicating matters is that 4 starters must be replaced on the OL. While WR Josh Doctson and RB Aaron Green are gone, there is a talented group of skill players waiting in the wings. Defense has always been HC Gary Patterson’s calling-card, and the return of 7 starters and a deep pool of reserves could make this group the conference’s best. Although relying mostly on your defense for 60 minutes is usually not a winning proposition in the Big 12. The Frogs will need players to step up on offense.
Texas – Two reasons why I think the Longhorns will go from 5-7 in 2015 to a 3rd place conference finish this year. 1) There’s a significant drop off after Oklahoma. 2) Texas had a lot of young talent last season that returns. Unlike their conference foes, the Horns win offensively with ground and pound. But to really reach new heights they will need more balance, starting with one of a potential 3-headed monster at QB (Tyrone Swoopes, Jerrod Heard, Shane Buechele) to emerge as the unquestioned frontrunner. The defense returns 9 starters, but that might not be as good as it sounds considering last season they gave up 453 yards per game. They will be tested weekly in conference play, not to mention OOC games against the potent offenses of Notre Dame and Cal.
Baylor – The Bears might have been the one team that had the personnel and schemes to challenge Oklahoma for the conference crown. But after an offseason of turmoil and upheaval I just don’t feel confident picking them higher. The offense should stay the same, but with mastermind Art Briles gone I’ll need to see it to believe it. One thing that will help is the return to health of QB Seth Russell. But keeping him in one piece could be dicey with 4 new starters on the OL. Defensively they could be adequate, by Big 12 standards. The secondary should be the strength, but they must replace nearly the entire front seven from last season, and losing DT Byron Bonds for the first month of the season with a knee injury doesn’t help. Still, I think this season will come down to how the players handle the sudden transition from Briles to Jim Grobe, not to mention Grobe’s likely lame-duck status. Maintaining focus week-in-and-week-out will be a challenge.
Oklahoma State – I may be underestimating the Cowboys, considering they return more starters than anyone else in conference from a team that won 10 games and reached #6 in the rankings at one point. But they benefitted greatly from their schedule, going 10-0 with TCU being the only ranked team they beat (at home, with WR Josh Doctson leaving the game injured in the 2nd Qtr). After that came successive losses to Baylor and Oklahoma, both at home, and a bowl loss to Ole Miss. They surrendered a total of 151 points in those games. In other words, their defense faltered badly against the better teams, and the offense wasn’t good enough to compensate. Still, the Cowboys should set scoreboards on fire this season with QB Mason Rudolph and all 5 OL starters back this season. But those home games against TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma last season I mentioned? They play all 3 on the road this year.
Texas Tech – Kliff Kingsbury’s Red Raiders epitomized the perception of a Big 12 team last season. Their offense ranked #2 in the nation in scoring and total yards. Meanwhile, they ranked second-to-last in the nation in yards allowed. The result was what you’d expect, a middling 7-6 squad that beat bad teams and lost to good ones. The Air Raid-style offense figures to be just as potent with QB Pat Mahomes back and a solid corps of receivers. The big question mark will be giving him enough time. Mahomes took 27 sacks last season, not bad on the surface when you consider he dropped back 620 times, but not good either when you consider it’s an offense designed to get the ball in the air quick and that they allowed 13 sacks in 2014. Factor in that the OL will feature 4 new starters and it becomes a bigger concern. As for the defense, they have nowhere to go but up. But really they only need to get a few stops a game, provided the offense keeps Mahomes on his feet.
Kansas State – 2015 was a big struggle for Bill Snyder’s Wildcats. Injuries and inexperience on both sides of the ball showed in the results. Things should improve this season though. Joe Hubener returns and is a decent, tough quarterback, but he was only in because the other options were hurt. Jesse Ertz and Alex Delton are also back to give K-State a 3-way duel for the starting job. If one of them can be reasonably efficient, the offense should be good enough. With a LB corps that might be the Big 12’s best, and the return of S Dante Barnett to a secondary that was shaky last season, the defense should also improve. Still, with road games at Stanford, Oklahoma, TCU and Baylor, an 8-win season is probably the ceiling, and 6-7 wins the more likely outcome.
West Virginia – Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Big 12 team features high-octane offense, leaky defense. Skyler Howard is back at QB, Rushel Shell takes over the load at RB, and both get to play behind a very solid OL. The Mountaineers will score. But they lost a lot of players off a defense that was decent last season. One bright spot was supposed to be S Dravon Askew-Henry, who was expected to take over from 1st Round Drat pick Karl Joseph as the defensive leader, but now he is lost for the season with a knee injury. WVU does get Oklahoma, TCU and Baylor at home, so an upset somewhere is possible. That and a not-too-difficult OOC schedule should make an 8-win season possible. But if the defense can’t make up for the losses just a little, it could be a struggle.
Iowa State – Last year Matt Campbell was leading Toledo to its best season ever and was one of the hot names in the coaching ranks for a Power 5 job. He’s now at Iowa State, which is Power 5 in name only. Still, heading into his first season Campbell appears to have given the program the shot in the arm it needs. Offensively they could be respectable. Joel Lanning, Mike Warren and Allen Lazard form a solid trio (and all 3 should return in 2017). The defense, 107th in the country last season, will probably be brutal to watch. Getting to a bowl game will take a couple of big upsets for the Cyclones.
Kansas – It’s not all gloom and doom at Kansas. They last won a game on Nov 8, 2014, but that 15-game losing streak should come to an end when they host Rhode Island in the season opener. 2-0 might not be entirely out of the question either when Ohio (not State) comes to Lawrence the following week. But anything more than 4 wins on the season will be a shocker, as 2nd year coach Matt Beaty continues to play a lot of young players in what figures to be a 5-year building job. The best news of all? By the time things really start getting ugly KU fans won’t have to wait long for the hoops team to tip off its season against Indiana on Nov 11 in Honolulu. Nice.
Also in this Series:
College Football 2016 – The State of The Game
Next Up: Big Ten
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.