Terps Thoughts / Questions As Season Nears

This coming Saturday (the 5th) Maryland will face Catawba in their lone exhibition (the Terps did face Wake Forest in a secret scrimmage this past weekend) prior to the start of the 2016-17 season vs. American on the 11th.

As the season nears, here are some thoughts and questions we have.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

1) Coach Turgeon recently signed a 4 year extension through the 2022-23 season. As I said on the board at the aforementioned link, I’m comfortable with this. Turgeon has the MD program in the best shape it has been in since the title. You eliminate any question of who is going to be leading things as you look ahead. I don’t think I’m ever going to love Turgeon in game; but he’s certainly not horrible in that regard. It’s just a style of play I don’t care for. He has a good staff, and works hard (and intelligently) with recruiting (including his pursuit of grad transfers).  To lose Layman, Stone, Carter, and Sulaimon – and possibly have a better team this year is a testament to him and his staff.

2) When I talk about style of play above, it’s just personal preference. I like to see more consistent pressing / trapping. I like to see an offense that looks to get out and run. Get the defensive board, find the outlet, and go with the secondary break. Get out in the passing lanes, get some some breakaways (and those points in the paint) via transition. Be willing to be beat sometimes when you press, and realize there are cumulative effects over the course of games where you wear opponents down. Increase your possessions.

In 2015-16 Maryland was 239th Nationally in Adjusted Tempo.
In 2014-15 Maryland was 194th.
In 2013-14 Maryland was 67th.
In 2012-13 Maryland was 105th.
In 2011-12 Maryland was 125th.

Last year was definitely impacted by having Stone, and Carter, and wanting to make sure those guys received the appropriate touches.

Looking at Turgeon’s Adjusted Tempo numbers by year at MD, I think we can see there has been some impact of moving to the Big Ten.

As we enter ’16-’17, Turgeon is on the record saying he would like to run more. That Anthony Cowan might be the fastest player in the Big Ten.

Good, that makes sense. You have a roster that is dominated by guards and wings. Take advantage of that.

3) Turgeon has said the Freshman trio of Cowan, Kevin Huerter, and Justin Jackson is ready to produce. No surprise there. Obviously the anticipation for sometime has been that at the minimum those guys will be solid rotation guys from Day 1. MD’s ceiling will be determined by how much past that those guys can go, and how consistent they are. A normal Freshman year, you’d expect years which include some highs and lows. The key for me, really is their consistency. How long does it take, before a comfort level is built and you have a good grasp on what you are going to get from this group each night?

4) The other two members of the Freshman class are Micha Thomas, and Joshua Tomaic. Thomas gets marks for his athleticism. Tomaic has size and can shoot. Minutes for these two, along with Sophomore Ivan Bender appear likely to be limited. I’d be interested to hear how Tomaic and Bender are competing in practice. Is Bender ahead due to his extra time in the program? Are they close enough along to be able to enter games, and help with rebounding and defense when MD is being pushed around by bigger teams? If MD gets to a position where they are doing more consistent pressing this year, is Thomas ready to help there with his athleticism? Might he be a RS candidate? Does someone here really progress during the year? They are on scholarship for a reason, and people develop at different speeds. Never know when the light might go on. Sometimes it comes on when you are facing better competition day-in day-out at practice. With Bender going into the Sophomore year, and being that much further away from his prior injuries; you want him to be ready to be a reliable piece.

5) I’m pleased by the addition of the Duquesne Grad transfer L.G. Gill, but I’m in wait and see mode with my expectations. Last year, he averaged 10.1 ppg, and 6.5 boards. There were a number of big nights on his game log, but I’d be lying if I said it didn’t jump out to me that his only game vs. a ranked team – #19 Dayton – it was a 5 point, 6 board night. What I do think he brings is starting experience, some maturity, some shooting, some rebounding, some size (6’8, 230). I’ll pretty pleased if he can do some regular work on the boards (he had 16 games with at-least 8 rebounds), and shows some defensive ability.

6) I see myself as bigger fans of Damonte Dodd, and Mychal Cekovsky than what I perceive as the general vibe of the Terrapins faithful. The key is having realistic expectations. If they are altering shots, getting some blocks, rebounding, and finishing put-backs; that will be sufficient. There should be no expectation of these guys setting up camp in the post, and providing regular offense. Have to challenge them to rebound better than they did on a per minute basis last year. If they don’t improve in that regard, their minutes will not be much different than this past year even with Stone and Carter gone. Also need better FT shooting from Cekovsky. For someone advertised as having a good shot, his 51% ratio at the line last year isn’t acceptable.

7) Junior years coming from Jaylen Brantley, and Jared Nickens. Brantley improved as last year went on, and his playing time increased. Good quicks, decent shot, ability to handle the ball. He’s got to produce early in the year to carve out a regular spot imo tough. It’s about facilitating for others when he’s on the court, hitting open shots, and being a pest on defense.

I’m really interested in seeing Nickens. In both his Freshman and Sophomore years, he averaged 4.2 3 point FGA’s per game. His shooting % from beyond the arc dropped from 39% to 35% though from Year 1 to Year 2. That % drop sounds a bit more significant than it was. He made 57 of 146 as a Freshman, 52 of 150 as a Sophomore. I do think it’s fair to say his confidence waned at times last year though. We went into ’15-’16 hoping to see some improvement in his ability to put it on the floor. To use his 6’7 size, and post-up occasionally. To draw more fouls, and get to the line more often. To show some more regular effort defensively. None of that happened. Don’t know that we are going to see a more well-rounded game at this point in Year 3.

If these two are regularly plus contributors, Maryland’s guard /wing depth is going to be too much for a lot of their opponents.

8) Welcome back Dion Wiley! After being lost to injury last year, Wiley is back. Prior to the injury last year, there was a lot of chatter that the 2G was going to show a much improved offensive game vs. what we saw his Freshman year. That, coupled with his on-ball defense, had Maryland fans very excited by his prospects entering ’15-’16. Unfortunately he had the injury, and the roster as a whole suffered because of it. He’s been healthy for sometime now, so I feel good in that regard. He was able to go full-speed in the Summer, and here in the Fall. I’m hoping to see him be a lock-down defender, with a versatile game that contributes in multiple capacities. Wiley is definitely a wildcard for this roster as the year begins. That said, in his Freshman year we saw a flat jump-shot, and good – not great – athleticism. Given that, and the time missed, we expect the Out-of-Conference schedule will see him feeling his way a bit. If he’s regularly adding offense from Day 1, that’s a great sign for MD this year.

9) Melo Trimble is back for his Junior year, and one senses from the outside that he is more comfortable in his own skin. The pre-season of any sport often sees a lot of superfluous quotes, but I like everything we’ve read the last few weeks from Melo, and Turgeon about his PG. Last year, Trimble greatly increased his assists per game, while having almost zero change in his turnovers per. What disappointed was his shooting. The 3pt % dropped, while the attempts increased. He also got to the line less often. It’s a bit much to say MD is going to go as Melo goes, but it is fair to say that Melo has orchestrate the show. Lots of talk about MD going with Melo and Cowan on the floor together at times, with Trimble being pushed off the ball. That’s a chance to reduce some of the pressure of having the ball in his (Melo’s) hands for 30+ minutes a night, but that only works if Melo is knocking down shots. My biggest knock on Trimble last year was that there were too many games where if the shot was off, that eliminated his effectiveness. Create for others, and pick your spots to attack defenses when it’s needed.

10) What will be Maryland’s lineup of death? Or maybe the better question is how effective will Maryland be when they go extremely small?  Think Cowan, Trimble, Huerter or Wiley or Nickens, Jackson, Gill. If this group can effectively spread the floor, regularly knock down shots from all 5 spots, and not get overwhelmed on the glass; then Maryland getting back to the Sweet 16 and being a dangerous team in March is within reach.

11) The bigger OOC games on the schedule are Georgetown (@ the Verizon Center), Boston College or Kansas State (in Brooklyn), Pittsburgh, and Oklahoma State. Not exactly Murderer’s Row, but coupled with the Big Ten schedule, will have MD finishing with a decent SOS. Getting that ‘road’ win vs. the Hoyas would be nice. Georgetown’s strengths are in the front-court. So it will be an immediate test of Maryland’s interior.  In subsequent years, I hope Turgeon beefs up the schedule some.

12) Big Ten thoughts?  See the conference preview from our BSL colleague Rob Shields here. It’s an unbalanced schedule, and that will impact the regular season results. Examples being that MD gets Indiana, and Michigan State at home, but doesn’t have to trip to Bloomington or East Lansing. Also that MD will be on the road in Wisconsin, but doesn’t get the Badgers in College Park.

Predictions?

– Maryland enters the year 21st in the Coaches Poll, and 25th in the AP. I expect the Terps to finish in the Top 5 in the Big Ten, and finish the year in the National rankings. Do anticipate there will be times they look rough due to their limitations, but also think there will be times where they look great when everything is clicking.

Ultimately, I’ll pick MD to get back to the Sweet 16.