ACC Basketball Preview

With as many as 8 teams in some preseason Top 25 polls, expect the ACC to once again be the class of College Basketball. Six ACC schools went to the Sweet 16 last year, while half of the Elite Eight and the Final Four were comprised of ACC teams. North Carolina just missed winning the National title in 2016, and their bitter rivals from Durham are a pretty clear favorite to win it all this year. 

Duke is ranked #1 pretty much everywhere bringing in the #1 recruiting class in the country to go along with veterans like Grayson Allen and Amile Jerfferson.  North Carolina is ranked lower in the top ten, but very highly regarded despite losing Brice Johnson & Marcus Paige from the NCAA runner up team a year ago. Louisville, Virginia, NC State, Miami, Syracuse,Florida State, and Virginia Tech are also ranked in some polls. 

Two new (to the ACC at least) head coaches in the conference this year, both bring plenty of experience to their new homes. Kevin Stallings takes over at Pittsburgh after 17 years at Vanderbilt, while Josh Pastner is the new boss at Georgia Tech, after spending the last 7 seasons at Memphis. 

Let’s take a quick look at how I see the ACC standings shaping up:

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

1-Duke (25-11, 11-7)

The Blue Devils are loaded again and look primed to contend for another National Title. They brought in the top recruiting class in the country, led by 6’10 forward Harry Giles. Giles could miss some time early in the season after recovering from knee surgery. Another stud Freshman, Jayson Tatum will also be out early in the year recovering from a sprained foot. Duke will be fine in the interim, still being able to rely on All American candidate Grayson Allen, and a pretty good supporting cast of veterans like Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones, and Luke Kennard. 

Prediction: Final Four

2-North Carolina (33-7, 14-4)

Coach Roy Willams thinks this team could contend for a National Title again after coming painfully close to cutting down the nets last April. The first thing they’ll have to improve is their three point shooting, which they hit at an embarrassing .327 percentage last year. Gone is Marcus Paige, who could shoot you out of the game as fast as he almost saved the title game vs. Villanova. A lot will be asked of Junior Joel Berry II, but I think he’s up to the task. Justin Jackson should take “the leap” this season, as he looks to be the best all around returning player. The depth should be good despite losing Theo Pinson until at least February with a broken foot. Freshmen Tony Bradley and Seventh Woods will get big minutes for the Heels along with veterans Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks, and Nate Britt. 

Prediction: Elite Eight

3-Virginia (29-8, 13-5)

Malcolm Borgdon is in Milwaukee playing big minutes for the Bucks as a rookie, and will be missed. The defending ACC player of the year got better every year at UVA, and is a testament to Tony Bennett and the program he’s built there. PG London Perrantes will be the straw that stirs the drink this season in Charlottesville, but watch out for Memphis transfer Austin Nichols to make a big impact in the middle. I don’t see them getting a #1 seed this season, but Wahoo fans will continue to enjoy a nice run in the tourney. 

Prediction: Sweet 16

4-Louisville (23-8, 12-6)

Rick Pitino’s crew is very young, but very talented, let by Jr PG Quentin Snider, who showed some scoring ability last season in addition to leading the Cards in assists. Freshman forward VJ King will be expected to contribute right away, along with Penn transfer Tony Hicks. Mangok Mathiang really improved last year in the middle before suffering a broken foot, and will be counted on offensively as well as on the glass. This team will continue to get better as the season goes on. 

Prediction: Sweet 16

5-Florida State (20-14, 8-6)

This is my sleeper team to really make some noise at the top of the division. By March this could be the third best team in the conference. They’re lead by Sophomore Dwayne Bacon, who led the Noles in scoring and rebounding as a Freshman. He could be an all ACC talent this season. Senior Guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes returns for his Junior season at the point, and he’ll have another potential star to get the ball to in 6’10 Freshman Jonathan Isaac, who will be one of the better Freshmen in the ACC. 

Prediction: Sweet 16

6-Syracuse (23-14, 9-9)

The Orange made a miracle run to the Final Four last season, the first #10 seed to do so. This year’s team should be better in the regular season, but I don’t expect another run like that in March. They do feature one of the best players in the country in Sophomore Tyler Lydon. Lydon didn’t start last year, but averaged 10 pts and 6.3 rebounds as a Freshman. Expect a huge jump in numbers this year. The rest of the frontcourt is strong with veterans Tyler Robertson and DaJuan Coleman manning the middle. It’s a young backcourt after losing 2 fifth year seniors in Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije. Expect some growing pains there. 

Prediction: Round of 32

7-Virginia Tech (20-15, 10-8)

Buzz Williams has Virginia Tech relevant again, and that in itself is an accomplishment. Their top 4 scorers from last year return, led by Senior forward Zach LeDay, who averaged 15.5 pts and 7.9 boards last year after transferring from South Florida. Veteran ACC PG Seth Allen returns for his senior season, and is a steady, but not spectacular floor leader. The Hokies are deep and should be back in the tournament this season. 

Prediction: Round of 32

8-NC State (16-17, 5-13)

For me, I could have put Miami or Notre Dame in this spot, but I really like this team, and there’s one reason, and one reason only, Freshman sensation PG Dennis Smith Jr. Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum got most of the pub this offseason, but Smith could have the most impact on his new team. I can’t wait to watch him play. The Pack did lose a lot from last year’s squad, most notable Cat Barber, who led the ACC in scoring. Look out for Charlotte transfer Torin Dorn (his Father had a long NFL career after starring at North Carolina), and West Virginia Transfer Terry Henderson. 

Prediction: NCAA Tournament 

9-Miami (27-8, 13-5)

Not many coaches have had more success the last 10 years than Jim Larranaga. What he did at George Mason and now at Miami is pretty impressive, and i expect them to be pretty good again this season. They lost three really good players in Angel Rodriguez, Sheldon McLellan, and Tonye Jekiri, and more will be expected of guys like Davon Reed and Ja’quan Newton. They’ll be young, and like NC State and Florida State, will improve as the season goes on. 

Prediction: NIT

10-Notre Dame (24-12, 11-7)

They’ve been in the Elite 8 the last two seasons, and not many coaches get more out of their teams than Mike Brey, but that streak comes to an end this season, as they simply lost too much in my opinion. Demetrius Jackson is now in the NBA, and can’t be replaced by anyone on the current roster. VJ Beachem was a monster last March, but his supporting cast is suspect. Bonzie Colson and Steve Vasturia are nice pieces, but really need to step up their games for this team to get back to the tournament. 

Prediction: NIT

11-Clemson (17-14, 10-8)

Jaron Blossomgame is one of the best players in the country, averaging 18.7 points last year, and will enter his Senior season trying to get the Tigers back to the dance for the first time since 2011. The problem is that there’s just not enough help for him on this roster. Guys like Avry Holmes and Donte Grantham are veterans who have been in the program for a while, but have yet to make a huge impact. They do have a couple of transfers in Elijah Thomas from Texas A&M, and Marcquise Reed, from Robert Morris, who will help. 

Prediction: NIT

12-Pittsburgh (21-12, 9-9)

The Jamie Dixon era is over in Pittsburgh as he went back to his alma mater, TCU, to try to turn around the Horned Frogs. In steps Kevin Stallings, who had some success at Vanderbilt the last 17 years. Pitt does return a few really good players, most notably Michael Young, the Senior who led the team in points and rebounds last season. Senior Jamel Artis averaged 14 per game last year, while Sheldon Jeter (who left Stallings Vandy program a few years ago, oddly enough) also return to a veteran laden starting lineup. 

Prediction: Postseason somewhere. 

13-Wake Forest (11-20, 2-16)

Danny Manning enters his third season at Wake, and is rightfully excited about his backcourt of Bryant Crawford and Mitchell Wilbekin. Crawford led the Deacs in scoring and assists, and is only a sophomore. Promising Freshman Brandon Childress (yep, Randolph’s son) is another guard that Manning is high on.Wake has some size up front, but is very inexperienced. Manning is trying, and seems to be recruiting well, but it’s going to be another long season in Winston Salem

Prediction: They’re at least a year away from being a mid pack team in this conference. 

14-Georgia Tech (21-15, 8-10)

The other new coach in the ACC is Josh Pastner, most recently of Memphis, who comes to Atlanta looking to turn around the Tech program. The Jackets haven’t been to the NCAA tournament since 2010, and that won’t change this year, but Pastner hopes to lay the foundation for a brighter future. Georgia Tech lost their top 4 scorers and top three rebounders from a team that made the NIT semis last season. Quinton Stephens is the leading returning scorer, averaging 5 points per game last season. GT/Boston College is a lock for a play in day game this year at the ACC tournament. 

Prediction: They won’t go 0-18 in the conference

15-Boston College (7-25, 0-18)

Not much to say here except there’s only one way to go for this squad, and that’s up! BC suffered through a miserable season, going 0-18 in the ACC. The lone bright spot was Sophomore Jerome Robinson who led the team in every category. He’s only a sophomore, so look for him to get even better this season. Not much else to look forward to here, but they should at least be able to get a few wins this season. 

Prediction: 3 wins for the Eagles this season in the ACC!