NFL Week 9

Greetings from the Sunshine State!

Things are a bit different as I’m not coming at you live from smoggy Southern California. I decided to stir things up and am currently in South Florida, specifically Ft. Lauderdale, as I accompany my wife on a business trip.

A little backstory: I lived here for almost six years while working for the Miami Herald and then CBSSports.com. I moved back home in late 2010 and hadn’t been back since. So, when my plane landed on Monday evening, I was pretty excited to check out my old neighborhood and see old friends.

I grabbed my suitcase from the baggage claim and ambled through the automatic door like John Wayne … and then, like a kick to the crotch, I was overwhelmed by my old nemesis: humidity.

I was sweating and cranky within seconds. Now, I remember why I left. Cheap bars and no state tax will never be enough to make me move back.

But, enough of my personal story. Nobody cares. We’re here to talk some football!

Week 8 picks: 7-5-1

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

I’ve had an NHL-like record over the last two weeks thanks to the NFL giving us ties. I’m still confused as to how the Bengals didn’t close out that win against the Redskins, but whatever. That’s Cincinnati for you.

And on a side note, I need to trust my instincts. I had a sneaky feeling the Saints were going to get past the Seahawks – without Michael Bennett and with a hobbled Russell Wilson – at home on Sunday and indeed they did. But I didn’t have the courage to pick New Orleans and I hate myself for it.

Raise your glass to: Derek Carr

Some people think the Raiders quarterback could be named MVP this season. I’m pumping the brakes on that, but I still can’t say enough good things about this kid. He’s gutsy, headstrong and any other cliché you can come up with.

I was convinced Oakland would stumble against Tampa on Sunday and the Silver and Black almost did, but Carr threw for more than 500 yards and had 4 touchdown passes in an overtime win. And his performance drew raves from none other than NFL Films expert Greg Cosell, who said that was best he’s ever seen Carr play.

Bravo!

Boo this man: Jamie Collins

I don’t know why Bill Belichick chose to trade what everyone thought was one the Patriots best defenders for a third-round draft choice. Was it Belichick’s fear of seeing Collins walk in free agency and getting nothing in return? Was it Belichick’s lapdog, errr, former co-worker Michael Lombardi saying that Collins took plays off and freelanced too much?

It doesn’t really matter.

However, I would imagine the following quote didn’t help. Collins was asked recently if he prefers to watch college or NFL football, and he said:

“Neither,” Collins said in September. “I didn’t grow up watching football, and I still don’t. Me and Chandler Jones have talked about this since I first got up here. I never watched football. I never thought I’d be here, and I’d rather play video games. I don’t really want to watch it.”

There was a legendary story when I worked at FOX about an editor who wrote in an email that he didn’t try on the job anymore. Of course, instead of sending it to what he thought was a confidante, he sent it to the entire department. Needless to say, that man wasn’t employed for much longer.

Collins did the same thing with that quote. You can’t publicly say you’re not that into football and expect Bill Belichick – a man obsessed with the game – to approve of it. It’s no accident that Collins and Chandler Jones aren’t with the Patriots anymore.

Be smarter in the future, Jamie. Words matter. Especially to a boss.

Now, let’s get to the picks!

WEEK 9

FALCONS AT BUCCANEERS

Remember when the Bucs took down the Falcons in Atlanta in Week 1? Things have changed somewhat since.

Matt Ryan is the hottest quarterback in the league and is on pace to throw for more than 5,000 yards and almost 40 touchdown passes this season. Meanwhile, Tampa has been hit hard with injuries and won’t have their top two running backs – Doug Martin and Charles Sims – and their third-string stopgap in Jacquizz Rodgers.

The Falcons are going to get this one fairly easily on Thursday night.

Pick: Falcons

LIONS AT VIKINGS

Once upon a time, the state of Minnesota had a football team sitting pretty at 5-0 and everyone was happy.

Then the injury bug took a sledgehammer to the Vikings offensive line and everything went to crap. Watching Sam Bradford run for his life with a moribund running game behind him has been painful.

Then, offensive coordinator Norv Turner decided enough was enough and resigned this week. Lovely.

It would be really easy to pick the Lions here and call it a day, but I won’t do it. The Lions let Case Keenum and the Rams move the ball up and down the field on them just a few weeks ago and nothing has improved since then.

Minnesota’s defense will keep this one close and ultimately, Bradford will make a play or two to get the W.

Pick: Vikings

STEELERS AT RAVENS

Well, the million dollar question is: Will Ben Roethlisberger play? And of course, in typical NFL fashion, nobody will say for sure.

The Ravens are expecting to see him on Sunday.

“I saw this movie before,” Terrell Suggs said via Pro Football Talk. “He’s gonna act like ‘Aw, I’m not playing, I don’t know, I did individual work a little bit.’ But then he’ll walk his big ass on out there and it’ll be ‘How you doin’ Benjamin.’ And then it’s on.”

I agree with Mr. Suggs. Big Ben has a huge ass. But I digress …

For the sake of this column, let’s assume he will play. He won’t be the focus of this one. The Ravens haven’t been good against the run, so expect a solid dose of Le’Veon Bell on Sunday that could eventually set up some devastating play-action for some big plays.

Baltimore is in a free fall, having lost four straight after starting the season 3-0. Even though the Ravens are at home this week in a rivalry game, I can’t bring myself to pick them.

Pick: Steelers

JETS AT DOLPHINS

I’m really feeling the Dolphins right now, and I don’t think it has anything to do with me being in South Florida. Miami has found a spark in running back Jay Ajayi and his tough running style can really help take pressure of Ryan Tannehill.

Even the defense has found itself. Not that it would matter against a Jets offense that can’t get out of its own way on most days.

Miami all day.

Pick: Dolphins

EAGLES AT GIANTS

NFL coaches always plead for their players to take a season one game at a time. That’s impossible. Tough losses always weigh on your mind for at least a few days.

The Eagles are coming off a rough defeat on Sunday night against the Cowboys. And now they go back on the road for another division game, this time against a Giants team that’s coming off a bye week.

While Big Blue has had its moments of ineptitude this season, I like them to get the win here.

Pick: Giants

COWBOYS AT BROWNS

As I write this, the Cleveland Indians will battle the Chicago Cubs in Game 7 of the World Series in a few hours. If the Indians close this one out, that would give the Mistake by the Lake two world championships in one calendar year.

Things tend to even themselves out in this world. And unfortunately, that means the Browns have to pay the price for the city’s recent success.

This one will be closer than most people think because the Browns play hard every week and the Cowboys are in danger of a letdown, but we all know what the outcome will be.

Pick: Cowboys

JAGUARS AT CHIEFS

When an NFL quarterback throws an interception, often the team’s offensive coordinator will ask him a simple questions on the sideline: “What did you see?”

I feel someone should have asked me that after I picked the Jaguars to beat the Titans last week. This team is rapidly approaching dumpster fire status and there’s no reason to think things will change.

And yes, I know Nick Foles will start at quarterback for Kansas City over the injured Alex Smith.

Pick: Chiefs

SAINTS AT 49ERS

I could waste several words here, but what’s the point of doing so with the 49ers?

Pick: Saints

PANTHERS AT RAMS

So … Cam Newton doesn’t feel safe anymore, eh? That’s not a smart thing to say out loud when you have a matchup against the Rams defense. A defense that enjoys dishing out summary punishment.

Sorry, Cam, you’re in danger. And so are the Panthers, who have to travel cross-country for this one. Look for Los Angeles to get back to .500. Here’s hoping the bye week gave the team enough time for figure out their offensive woes.

Pick: Rams

TITANS AT CHARGERS

The Titans have never won at Qualcomm Stadium, losing all five tries dating back to 1998. However, this isn’t your typical Tennessee team.

The Titans are leading the NFL in rushing attempts and while the Chargers are seventh in the league against the run, but have also faced the fifth-fewest rushing attempts.

This one is going to be interesting. Expect a heavy diet of DeMarco Murray and Marcus Mariota scrambling on some designed runs. I like Tennessee in this one.

Pick: Titans

COLTS AT PACKERS

Green Bay fell short in a shootout in Atlanta, but a positive note was seeing the Packers offense look like its old self again.

Now they return home to face Andrew Luck and Co. in a game that looked great on paper before the season began. The Colts can’t stop anyone on defense and even though the Packers are awful at running back, they should have an easy time putting up points.

Pick: Packers

BRONCOS AT RAIDERS

Sexy matchup of the week!

The NFL is better when the Raiders are relevant. It just is. And this week we get to see a blood rivalry at its apotheosis. There’s nothing like the AFC West when teams are good.

OK, enough slobbering. I know I’ve gone gaga over Derek Carr, but he’s facing his first really true test of this season. And even though the Raiders get Denver at home, Carr is going to have an issue against the Broncos’ withering pass rush.

Denver has the experience to play it steady and let the Raiders make mistakes – and they will.

Pick: Broncos

BILLS AT SEAHAWKS

This one is going down on the eve of Election Day.

These are two teams with major issues. The Seahawks are beaten up at key positions and inexperienced on the offensive line. The Bills are … well, the Bills. I’m going with Seattle here, but only because they’re at home.

Pick: Seahawks