Quick takes on each player on O’s 40 man

Heading into Monday’s double-header vs. Boston, there are 11 games left in the 2011 season for the Baltimore Orioles. Here are quick takes on each player currently on the O’s 40 man roster.

Jeremy Accardo: He is scheduled to a be a Free Agent, but I could see him return on a Minor League contract. I think the O’s have plenty of internal options existing which I would prefer for the bullpen.

Jake Arrieta: His K/9, Line Drive %, Ground Ball %, and First Strike % all improved this year. With the bone spur being removed not directly at the elbow, (and with him having surgery when he did) everyone seems confident in his ability to have a normal throwing program this Winter. His fastball command was impacted by the bone spur, but has to improve. 21 homers in 119.1 ip, is too much. To me, barring any health set-backs, his spot in the O’s 2012 rotation should be secure.

Brad Bergesen: Bergesen having an era above 5, is not overly shocking. We’ve always believed he is a guy suited for the back of a ML rotation, or as a swing man out of the bullpen. Pitch F/X shows that during this ’11 season, Bergesen has thrown a 4 seam fastball over 50% of the time (average velocity 90.9). He has thrown his 2 seam fastball just 18.2% of the time (average velocity 90.3). Perhaps that disparity explains why his Groundball /Flyball ratio has dropped to 0.71 this year vs. 0.93 for his career. His May 14th shutout in Tampa was masterful, and a reminder of Bergesen at his best. From June 1st through today, he has made just 3 ML starts. If he makes the ’12 team out of ST, figures to be as a member of the ‘pen.

Jason Berken: Two trips to the DL, and two trips back to AAA during this year. Will head to ’12, outside looking in at the O’s pen.

Zach Britton: Lot to like about Britton’s rookie season, especially with how he responded to the adversity of July. Finishing the year looking good, overall he is 10-10, with a 4.28 era. In his 145 ip, he has allowed 149 hits, 9 homers, 56 bb’s, with 94 k’s. His OPS against is .709, and he has a G/F ratio of 1.25. Like Arrieta, fastball command needs to improve. Looks every bit of a competent ML starter, with legitimate front-end potential.

Dylan Bundy: I think the O’s 2011 1st round pick starts next year with Delmarva. With expected results, he should join Frederick after the All-Star break.

Willie Eyre: 33 years old with 160 career ML innings. Another guy that could be invited to ST, with little chance of making the ML roster without widespread injuries. Could see Showalter wanting him at Norfolk, and available for promotion.

Kevin Gregg: Walk rate considerably higher this year, vs. the previous 3 years. His general philosophy of pitching around hitters can be tough to watch. The few times he has been willing to attack hitters over the plate with his 92.2 mph avg fastball, he has had good results. In ’12, Gregg will be in the second year of his two year $10M contract (there is a $6M option for ’13). For the year, he has had 20 saves, and 7 blown saves. In his 55.2 ip, he has allowed 55 hits, with 50 k’s which is good. The 7 homers, and especially the 39 walks are unacceptable. While there is an argument to be made that if he were to obtain some cheap saves in ’12, that it might artificially raise his trade value – I would plan on using him outside the Closer role to begin next year.

Jeremy Guthrie: Guthrie is under O’s control through the ’12 season. I think it is unlikely for the O’s to be offering him an extension this off-season. The 17 losses look ugly, but overall Guthrie has been exactly what you expect from him. A guy that on a true contender would be a 3rd starter, that is miscast as an ‘ACE’ here in Baltimore. For the 5th consecutive season, Guthrie has pitched over 175 ip, and for the 3 consecutive season will go over 200. The former 1st round pick turns 33 next April. Could be traded this Winter, but I doubt it. Almost certainly will be traded next July.

Tommy Hunter: Obtained for Uehara at the end of July, Hunter has met expectations. In ’09, Hunter was 9-6, with 4.10 era. In 112 ip, he allowed 113 hits, 13 homers, 33 bb’s, with 64 k’s. His OPS against was .736, with a G/F ratio of 0.64. In ’10, Hunter was 13-4, with a 3.73 era. In 128 ip, he allowed 125 hits, 21 homers, 33 bb’s, with 68 k’s. His OPS against was .740, with a G/F ratio of 0.74.
This year, he dealt with oblique and groin injuries to start the year. With the O’s, Hunter’s average fastball has been 91.8 mph. Reminds me of Guthrie in some ways. Ideally, he would probably be in your bullpen, but I’d be comfortable going into ’12 with him part of the rotation.

Chris Jakubauskas: You would never want him to be in your rotation, but his ability to be a swing start starter makes him somewhat attractive. Has thrown 70 ip with the O’s this year. Nothing wrong with him giving a chance to compete for the O’s bullpen next year. Would be decent depth at Norfolk.

Jim Johnson: Source of a lot of discussion among O’s fans, media, and management about where he belongs. I’ve stated numerous times I think it would be a poor idea to make him a starter. When the ’12 season starts, he will be 5 years removed from when he was last in a rotation. He has thrown 85 ip this year, and I think it would be a lot to ask him to throw 150 next year. Remember he missed most of ’10 with the ligament tear in his elbow. To me, it would be a two year project to make him a 180 inning starter, and he is not even under team control after ’13. Just seems like an odd course of action for a guy turning 29 next June. He has great stuff out of the pen (though I doubt he would maintain it as a starter). He has 6 saves (4 here in September), 5 blown saves, and 18 holds. In those 85 ip this year, he has allowed 76 hits, 5 homers, 19 bb’s, with 56 k’s. He has a .637 OPS against, with a ridiculous 1.65 G/F. Ultimately, I do not believe he will be one of the five best options to start, and would like to see him made the Closer.

Brian Matusz: Nothing encapsulated the disappointment of the O’s  2011 season, as much as the poor results from Matusz this year. As good as he was in his last 10 starts of ’10, this year was a mess for him from the beginning. I do believe he will emerge again as a reliable Major League starter. I have less confidence in his ability to be a front end starter. He needs to work extremely hard this Winter, and his spot in the ’12 rotation should be determined by his results in the Spring.

Troy Patton: While he is never going to be the guy he was prior to his Labrum injury, Patton has been very effective in the 17 games an 25.1 innings he has pitched with the O’s this year. Have to love the 21 k’s, against the 3 bb’s. The 26 year old lefty should begin ’12 in the Baltimore pen.

Zach Phillips: In 58.1 AAA ip this year, Phillips had 45 k’s, and 28 walks. The 25 year old lefty seems to have a live arm, and mediocre/poor control. I’d think he goes into next year behind Patton as an internal lhp option for the ‘pen.

Clay Rapada: The definition of the lefty specialist. As good as he is against lefties, you really can’t use him at all against righties. I’d rather have a bullpen full of arms that can pitch multiple innings.

Jo-Jo Reyes: Was once a well regarded prospect that somehow has made a combined 25 starts this year with Toronto and the O’s. If you are ever in a position where Reyes has to regularly start for you, you have problems with your rotation. If you can put him in your bullpen, as another swing guy – that is a plus. The 140 ip he has thrown this year, makes him a lot more attractive to me vs. a guy like Rapada.

Alfredo Simon: We will see what happens with Simon in terms of his availability, but assuming he will remain available, I do think he will be one of the O’s 12 best pitchers. Most of his numbers are not particularly exciting, and I do think he gets exposed as a starter. On the plus side of the ledger, in his 103.1 ip with the Birds this year, he is averaging 94.5 mph with the fastball. He has legitimate stuff, and can start for you in a pinch. I said above that I want Matusz to earn his way into the O’s rotation next Spring. I think Matusz will do that, and if he does – without any external additions, a rotation of Guthrie, Britton, Hunter, Matusz, Arrieta would be my preference. If you go into a season with Simon projected in your rotation, you have not had a good off-season.

Pedro Strop: Enjoying watching him down the stretch. Major velocity, good movement from the former SS. Looks like a guy with Closer potential, and hard to imagine him not being in the O’s pen beginning next year.

Chris Tillman: Some positives, some negatives from the young RHP this year. His K/9 increased, his BB/9 decreased, his line drive % decreased, his first strike % increased. After one of his stops back in the Minors this year, he worked with Mike Griffin and his mechanics improved. With the improved mechanics, his velocity increased. His off-speed stuff improved this year as well. His overall results at AAA were underwhelming though. I’m sure part of it was due to disappointment to finding himself back at that level, but he needed to accept that challenge and perform. Tillman will still just be turning 24 next April. While I’m sure some people in the organization will want him starting every 5th day at Norfolk (if he is not in the O’s rotation) but I want him beginning ’12 in Baltimore. He is a quality ML caliber arm, that needs to learn to get ML hitters out. Put him in the bullpen, use him, and build his confidence.

Rick VandenHurk: VDH, who once started and won the Futures Game, was 9-13 with 4.43 era at Norfolk this year. He threw 154.1 ip, allowing 141 hits, 23 homers, 40 bb’s, with 108 k’s. He was much strong after the All-Star break. Yet another existing internal arm that makes sense as an option for the ’12 bullpen.

Pedro Viola: The lefty reliever earned a couple of trips to Baltimore this year. Pretty decent stuff, had a lot of success this year at Bowie. To me, should be behind lefties like Patton, Phillips, and Reyes in the internal lefty hierarchy.

Jake Fox: Despite his deficiencies behind the plate, I’d rather have him as my backup catcher as opposed to Tatum. Do think his power, and versatility can help a roster. I think Showalter made it clear this year, that Fox will never be the backup Catcher on his 25 man roster.

Craig Tatum: After throwing out just 2 of 25 runners in ’10, he has thrown out 8 of 19 runners in ’11. While it is difficult to play just once a week and hit, and while 79 ab’s only tells you so much; his .496 OPS is pretty abysmal. I don’t think his defense is good enough to justify having an automatic out in the lineup. If Wieters went down to injury, it would be crippling to have to start Tatum with regularity.

Matt Wieters: After previously struggling against LHP, he has worn lefties out in ’11. Conversely, his numbers against RHP have dropped. Finishing strong offensively, with a .951 OPS in August, and a .864 OPS in September. His Isolated Power has increased from .128 last year, to .186 this year. Among Catchers, Wieters is 3rd overall with Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of 3.8. His wOBA is currently .336. He has become one of the best Catchers in the game. The O’s need him to produce offensively over a full year like he did during April, August, and September this year. Might need additional rest during the Summer.

Ryan Adams: In 377 ab’s with Norfolk, Adams had 41 xbh’s. The 30 walks, vs. 103 k’s is poor. (6 bb’s, 24 k’s in the Majors). He has just a .644 OPS with the Birds in his 85 ab’s, but has flashed his line-drive / gap power. His Ultimate Zone Rating / 150 is (-22), which illustrates why Showalter and the O’s have wanted him to focus on his defense. Still, I’ve noted several times that Adams has shown better range than I expected. Adams should be spending this Winter working on his defense every day, particularly his footwork around the bag. Also needs to be thinking about making changes with his approach at the plate, to increase his walks.

Robert Andino: Due to the injury to Roberts, Andino has received 412 ab’s at the ML level this year. His .666 OPS is not ‘good’, but is not a black hole either. Does have 21 doubles this year, and his 37 bb’s to 72 k’s is okay as well. In 634 innings at 2nd base, his UZR/150 is (-6.8). In 165 innings at 3rd base, his UZR/150 is (20.5). All-in-all, I think Andino is a serviceable player. If you had him as backup / utility type I think you would feel good about him. Starting everyday, he is not quite a liability, but he is not going to help you win either. That said, should Roberts not be available next year, I’m not sure the O’s are going to be able to improve over Andino.

Josh Bell: At AAA this year, Bell had a horrible ratio of 40 bb’s vs. 118 k’s. He did improve that in the 2nd half (17 bb’s vs. 28 k’s), but in the Majors he has had 4 bb’s vs. 22 k’s. His footwork still needs improvement at 3rd, but he has pretty decent reactions. He has not hit at all in his 56 bats with the O’s, but he does have legitimate power (33 xbh’s in 395 ab’s at Norfolk). If you felt better about Bell, you could feel better about moving Reynolds across the diamond. As is, Bell has to again go back to AAA (turns 25 this November) and produce.

Chris Davis: It is a shame that he has dealt with injuries since being obtained by the O’s. His power to all fields is significant. In ’08, Davis had 42 XBH’s in 295 ab’s with the Rangers, posting a .880 OPS. In 391 ab’s in ’09, Davis had 38 XBH’s (including 21 homers) as his OPS dropped to .726. (Slugging % fell from .549 to .442). Last year, Davis had just 120 ab’s with the Rangers, and has had only 156 ab’s with Texas and the O’s here in 2011. However, Davis was absolutely on fire this year at AAA Round Rock. (193 ab’s, 1.229 OPS, 39 xbh’s, 24 homers, .368 baa) The only negative blemish on his time there is his 11 bb’s vs. his 58 k’s. At 1st, or 3rd, or DH he is going to get plenty of ab’s with the O’s in 2012. I would not count on him to be a starter in the everyday lineup though. I would prefer him at 1st or DH, as opposed to 3rd. In his Major League career, Davis has a career .696 OPS against LHP, and a .773 OPS against RHP.

Pedro Florimon Jr.: Florimon turns 25 this December. He was very mediocre at the AA level, and I feel undeserving of a call-up to the Majors. I would no problem removing him from the 40 man.

JJ Hardy: There was a logical argument to be made for trading Hardy, but I am glad he was extended. Would like to see a higher on-base %, but I’ll take 53 xbh’s and a legitimate Major League defense at SS. Even if he plays the last 11 games, it will be three consecutive seasons where he has played less than 130 games. His ISO is .221, and his wOBA is .338.

Cesar Izturis: I never cheer for players to be injured, and I’m sorry Izturis had to deal with the groin injury after the elbow injury. To me, he has no place on the ’12 O’s. I could see Showalter thinking otherwise.

Joe Mahoney: Looking forward to seeing what Mahoney does in the Arizona Fall League. I have Mahoney as the O’s 8th best prospect. At Bowie, the lefty hitting 1st baseman had 315 ab’s, and a .845 OPS. In those 315 ab’s, he had 24 doubles, 5 triples, and 11 bombs. The 25 bb’s, vs. 84 k’s needs to improve. As one would expect, he wore out RHP, while struggling a bit against LHP. Turning 25 next February, 2012 will be extremely important for him.

Mark Reynolds: If you are concentrating on Reynolds’ .219 average, or his 182 k’s; you are looking at the wrong numbers. 34 homers, 26 doubles, and 71 bb’s speak to his value. He has a .797 OPS, .257 ISO, and a .344 wOBA. The metrics show his defense at 3rd as been every bit as brutal as what our eyes have seen. What bothers me is that he has often made the exceptional play, and butchered the routine. He obviously needs to work extra hard with his defense this Winter, to get back to the level he was at the previous two seasons. Some O’s fans really like him across the diamond at 1st. I’ll concur that I believe the O’s are currently picturing him there for ’12. I think that is a bit of a cop out, and I’d rather see him remain at 3rd.

Brian Roberts: In 2010 Roberts missed basically all of April, May, June, before returning at the end of July. Roberts would finish the year playing nearly everyday for the last two months prior to giving himself a concussion to end his year. In 2011, Roberts played in the first 39 games before suffering a 2nd concussion in a relatively short period of time. He is still having trouble going multiple days symptom free. By next Spring, I could see him being ready to play again. Obviously it would be hard to believe he would get through the 2012 season unscathed. Obviously you would not be able to expect him to play in the 157 games he averaged per year during the ’07-’09 seasons. Even if he does play regularly, his production figures to be at his ’06, and ’10 levels vs. what he did during that ’07-’09 period. He has 2 years and $20M left on his contract. He is not going to walk away from that contract easily. However, if by next Spring he is still suffering symptoms; I could see a buyout of his contract occurring at that point.

Brandon Snyder: The former 1st round pick has previously had success in the South Atlantic League, the Carolina League, the Eastern League, the Arizona Fall League, and the Hawaiian Winter League. Despite 2.5 seasons at Norfolk, the to be 25 year old Snyder has yet to master the International League. At one point we envisioned a poor man James Loney. It is hard to see that happening. He might be helped by putting the catching gear back on, and trying to increase his versatility similar to Fox.

Matt Angle: Despite a .692 OPS at Norfolk, Angle earned his promotion to Baltimore based on the strength of his defense in CF, and his .347 on-base % for the Tides. Angle has 7 steals with the O’s already, but he also has just a .472 OPS in his 57 ab’s. Even when that improves, he is never going to have even a lot of gap power in the Majors. With no additions, he will be in the mix to be the O’s 4th OF next Spring. I’d like to see the O’s upgrade here.

Kyle Hudson: It is baffling as to why Kyle Hudson was promoted to the Major Leagues. To the credit of the 24 year old, he had a .296 batting average, and a .375 on-base % in 423 at-bats with Frederick, Bowie, and Norfolk this year. He also had 41 steals (though he was caught stealing 16 times). On the negative side, he had just a .336 Slugging % in those 423 ab’s. He had zero homers, and just 13 doubles, and 2 triples. There is nothing about his resume which indicates to me he would even be a capable reserve.

Adam Jones: Jones had three successive months with an OPS above .850 during May through July. He is limping to the finish a bit, as he deals with the sprained thumb. Jones played in 149 games last year, which was a career high. He can match that, if he plays in 8 of the last 11 games.  Jones has 25 doubles, and 23 homers, and 80 RBI. I feel that his defense has been better in ’11, vs. the previous two years. I think his positioning has been better, and maybe the current Coaching staff gets credit for that. Despite my observations, the UZR/150 for Jones in ’11 is worse than what he produced in ’09, and ’10. I think his defense is somewhere in-between the metrics which say he is poor, and the American League Manager’s who voted him as the best defensive CF in the league in a Baseball America poll. His ISO has increased to .184 this year, vs. .158 last year. His wOBA is .340. Even if Jones is not an uber Star (of if you would prefer him in LF), I see the 26 year old as part of the solution. To me, signing him to an extension this off-season should be a priority of whoever is in charge of Baseball Operations for the O’s. On the other-hand, if Jones is not willing to sign a reasonable extension, or if the O’s are able to address multiple holes by moving him; then that is something the Orioles will have to consider. As is, Jones is a Free Agent after the 2013 season.

Nick Markakis: If you consider that offense has dropped league wise from 2008, then the drop in Markakis’ offensive production is less than you what appears at first glance. Still, Markakis signed a large extension after an absolute monster 2008 season. During that year, Markakis had a .897 OPS, with 69 xbh’s, and superior defense. This year Markakis has a .739 OPS, with 41 xbh’s. While I think he is as good defensively as any RF in the American League, the metrics say  he is slightly below average. Markakis deserves credit for rebounding from a very poor start (.561 OPS in April, .708 OPS in May) with a .772 OPS after the All-Star break. I just think there is more there. If he is not going to hit 25 to 30 homers, I want to see the guy many have thought is capable of a batting title. Like Jones, Markakis is part of the solution as opposed to part of the problem, but at this point you have to consider him a ancillary piece as opposed to a star.

Nolan Reimold: I gave my most recent thoughts on Reimold here:https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=2952

Luke Scott: Even if Scott was not coming off season-ending shoulder surgery, he would still have been a candidate to be non-tendered this Winter. With the surgery, it is a near certainty.

Vlad Guerrero: I have an immense amount of respect for the future Hall of Famer, and with 10 xbh’s here in September he has raised his OPS to .746. Still, it is hard to imagine any scenario where the DH returns to Baltimore in 2012.