Ravens Quick Hits: Flacco, Scheme, Injuries, O-Line, Looking Forward

After the debacle last night in Jacksonville, here are some short takes on the Ravens.

Topic 1) Flacco

I do not listen to much sports radio, but I’m sure the play of Flacco last night will be lighting up the air-waves today. There is a small, but vocal contingent of fans that believe Flacco is what is holding the Ravens back as a team.

I’ve stated numerous times that I disagree with that line of thinking. The Ravens have not won 4 road playoff games under the 4th year QB by accident. Flacco has thrown for 3,600+ yards in back to back seasons. Last year he had a QB rating over 90% last year, with 25 TD’s against just 10 picks. He had a completion % of 62.6. Pretty productive numbers for a scheme that most agreed to be very vanilla. Even better when you consider that Boldin, Mason, and Houshmandzadeh were all possession type receivers, that could not stretch the field.

That said, while I remain in the tank for Flacco, the performance last night from him and the offense was horrible. Whatever else is going on around you, you can’t go an entire half without converting a first down. Beyond Rice’s fumble, there were 8 other possessions of 3 and out. As the QB, Flacco has to shoulder his share of the blame. I agree with anyone that says more is needed from him. Unlike some, I believe he has those capabilities.

Topic 2) Scheme

If I’m Flacco, I was meeting with Harbaugh and Cameron on the flight home. I completed 63.1% of my passes in 2009, and 62.6% last year. Why is my completion percentage down to 52.1%?  Harbaugh spent large parts of the off-season saying he wanted to see maturation in Flacco’s leadership, and that the QB would get the opportunity to make more adjustments at the line. Is that happening? If not, why?  If Flacco was calling more of his own plays, I feel like we would see more shotgun and spread formations. That is where the QB is most comfortable, so why is that not occurring?

Beyond that, Ravens Owner Steve Biscotti directed Harbaugh to be more involved with the offense this year. Exactly what influence is Harbaugh having?

Let’s say that with Evans on the shelf, the Ravens do not believe in their capability to spread the field. Let’s say with their issues in pass protection Baltimore believes they need to make quick 3 step drops and get rid of the ball. Okay, why not over compensate the other way? You don’t want Flacco spreading out and attacking with 4 or 5 WR’s, why not go with a heavy/JUMBO set more often?

You could have possessions with Rice, Leach, your 5 lineman, 1 WR, and both Dickson, and Pitta on the field. You could have possessions with just Rice in the backfield, another lineman, 2 WR’s, and one of the TE’s.

In New England, the Patriots are using Gronkowski, and Hernandez on the field together 80% of the time (estimated by Ian Rapoport, Boston Herald). Gronkowski has been in all 6 games, has 29 catches, and is averaging 13.8 yards per catch. Hernandez has been in 4 games, has 27 catches, and is averaging 10.7 yards per catch. Conversely, Dickson has 22 catches, and is averaging 10.1 yards per catch. Pitta has 10 catches, and is averaging 10.5 yards per catch. Both Ravens TE’s have played in all 6 games. We understand that Brady is not throwing to the Baltimore TE’s, but they have the physical skills to mimic what New England is doing. The Ravens have to figure out how to utilize their pair better, and get them on the field together more often.

ESPN’s Monday Night crew spent time last night talking about Baltimore blitzing roughly 50% of the time on 3rd down under Coach Pagano. I like the aggression, and I do not mind that the opposition anticipates the pressure. I do think the Ravens could do a better bit of disguising where the pressure was coming from. Several times last night, Gabbert was able to beat the blitz by hitting the hot read. If you are not fooling a rookie like Gabbert, you wonder if the Ravens might be exposed against more experienced QB’s.

Topic 3) Injuries

I’m happy that Jimmy Smith was active last night, and hope that we see a week to week progression from him the rest of the way. At a minimum, he will obviously add depth and talent to the CB’s. It has also been good seeing David Reed get back the last couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see if he gets an opportunity as a receiver.

Carr has now missed 3 straight games with his hamstring injury. After suffering a concussion October 2nd, Zbikowski has missed the last two games coming off the bye. With Smith returning, and the play of Pollard, you can live with these two injuries a bit.

Lee Evans has not played since September 18th, as he continues to deal with his ankle injury. I had hoped to see him return after the bye. I’m surprised that the Ravens have played two more games without him on the field. There are rumors from The Castle that Harbaugh did not want Evans to begin with. Myself, I think you have to trust that Evans is injured, but operate under the assumption that he will not return and be a factor until proven otherwise. If he does return, he can run deep routes with Smith which should provide single coverage for both WR’s.

As the season progresses, it is being shown that Ben Grubbs turf toe is the most significant injury that the Ravens are dealing with. Out since the season opener, I had also anticipated Grubbs returning after the bye. Turf toe is a very tough injury. Ravens fans saw the impact it had on Ogden. Just like Evans, you need to operate not expecting his return.

Topic 4) O-Line

A healthy Grubbs would improve the line, but until he returns – the focus has to be on the players who are available.

When my Wife Laura (who barely watches any of the games) points out that Oher seemingly always gets multiple penalties, that is not a good thing. I’m not sure how you address this, but this has to improve.

Going into the Houston game, Pro Football Focus reported that Matt Birk was the only starting Center in the league yet to allow a single pressure this season, over 152 pass-blocking snaps. I had tended to believe that should Grubbs get back, that the Ravens would be better with Gurode taking over at Center, but the information from PFF is interesting.

Until Grubbs ever gets back, I think the Ravens need to give McKinney and Gurode help on the left side. Above we talked about using 2 TE sets with Dickson and Pitta. Perhaps the TE that really needs more time is Kris Wilson, as Wilson is the best blocking TE on the roster.

Topic 5) Looking Forward

The loss last night will haunt the Ravens all year. If you are trying to host home playoff games, you can’t afford slip-ups against the dregs of the league. That said, that game is over. What that loss again showed is that Baltimore, while talented, can’t just go through the motions and expect a W against anyone.

Going into last night I had bought into the hype, and was having trouble finding possible losses on the schedule. I don’t expect the Ravens to play that poor again, but the game was so bad, it forces you to reevaluate everything.

Remaining Schedule and Predictions:

Arizona: W, The Ravens will be motivated to redeem themselves at home, and a poor Cardinals team travels East.  Percentage chance of win: 95%

Pittsburgh: L, Most seasons you would anticipate splitting with the Steelers. Pittsburgh has rebounded from the opening week thrashing, and will be looking for revenge. With the road performances at Tennessee, and Jacksonville; it is on the Ravens to show they are capable of playing better on the road.  Percentage chance of win: 40%

@Seattle: W, After what figures to be an emotional battle with Pittsburgh, Baltimore will have to go West. The Seahawks are another team without a lot of talent, this needs to be a win.  Percentage chance of win: 85%

Cincinnati: W, With Palmer, Ochocinco, and Owens out of the locker-room, the Bengals seem more business like. There is young talent here, and the Bengals are resembling their team from two years ago.  Percentage chance of win: 75%

San Francisco: W, Thanksgiving Night with the initial Harbaugh Classic. The 49ers have good skill position talent, and their Defense has been suffocating at times. SF still has to come East, and questions remain about Alex Smith.  Percentage chance of win: 65%

@Cleveland: W, A divisional game, and another game you can not lose if you want to be home in the Playoffs. I would consider the Browns more dangerous than the Jaguars, and we saw how that game ended. Clearly a game that the Ravens should win, but you have to be a bit more leery of this game this morning. Percentage chance of win: 75%

Indianapolis: W, Wow how horrible was that Colts / New Orleans game Sunday night? You really have to work hard to lose by 55 points in the NFL. As long as Manning is not back for this game, and wearing his cape, this is as much of a ‘gimme’ type game as there is.  Percentage chance of win: 99%

@San Diego: L, Rivers is having some struggles right now, but I think he is one of the best. Lots of play-makers on both sides of the ball. Playing in San Diego never intimidates anyone, and everyone seems to believe Norv Turner remains a liability for them. Percentage chance of win: 45%

Cleveland: W, You play a team for a second time, that team has an opportunity to make adjustments. If the Ravens have beat the Browns in Cleveland, the Browns will be looking to play better in Baltimore. If the Browns have upset the Ravens in Cleveland, the Browns will have confidence coming into M&T Bank Stadium. Either way, the Ravens have to win this game. Percentage chance of win: 90%

@Cincinnati: L, The Ravens remain more talented than their upstart division rivals, but this game now looks a bit scary. You could be facing a Bengals team needing a win to make the Playoffs. The Ravens could be in a position where they know they are playing the following week no matter what. Would that have the Coaching staff looking to limit the snaps of the starters? No matter what, it will be a divisional match-up, against a team trying to defend their home-field in the last game of the season. Percentage chance of win: 49%