Last week featured three top ten teams falling, but all was quiet in BIG football, where all of the top teams took care of business. This gives us the opportunity to look toward the upcoming stretch run in conference play.
Here are the key games coming up that will likely determine the participants in the BIG Championship Game and quite possibly a berth, or berths, in the College Football Playoffs:
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
October 21st – Michigan at Penn State
October 28th – Penn State at Ohio State
November 4th – Penn State at Michigan State
November 11th – Michigan State at Ohio State
November 18th – Michigan at Wisconsin
November 25th – Ohio State at Michigan
There are plenty of “trap” games in the mix over the next few weeks-Ohio State at Iowa November 4 jumps out at me, but I think these are the key matchups (conveniently one per week) that fans should focus on, and I’ll be previewing them here as we move forward.
Wait a minute, did I write “or berths, in the College Football Playoffs.” If you noted that, put down the torches and pitchforks, or stop laughing, and hear me out.
I think both the BIG and the SEC have an opportunity to place two teams in the playoffs-can you hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth should there only be two conferences represented? Unlikely, sure, but here’s how it could happen.
If Penn State and Wisconsin win out and meet in the BIG Championship game, and Wisconsin win, I think they can both make it. I don’t think the Badgers’ schedule, given the weakness of the BIG West Division, gets them in with one loss. I do, however, believe that if Penn State posts wins again Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State-in consecutive weeks, two of them on the road-they have a strong case for the #4 seed (perhaps even #3) if their only loss is to an undefeated team with a good playoff case of their own.
I’m not forgetting the possibility of Ohio State or Michigan State also winning out and making the BIG Championship. I don’t know a team with an earlier loss, even to quality opponents like Oklahoma or Notre Dame, respectively, make a good case for a second team, although I think Ohio State makes the playoffs as a one-loss BIG champion. Should Michigan State win out, the BIG could be completely shut out of the playoffs.
I think a similar scenario could play out in the SEC if Alabama and Georgia win out. Both schools would have enough quality wins to make a case for a playoff bid as a one-loss team if that loss is to the other one. I don’t think that case would be as strong as Penn State’s, which is why I give them a chance at #3 even with one loss. Of course, other things would have to fall in place, but fewer after upsets of Clemson, Washington, and Washington State (a terrible week for the Pas-12) which allowed Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State to move up to #2, #5, and #6 in both polls this week. The Tigers made the playoffs with a loss last year, so it might take a second one to keep them out. Undefeated TCU still faces a trip to Oklahoma, and other one-loss teams could play themselves back in the conversation. It will be very interesting to see how it all plays out over the next several weeks. The first official playoff rankings will be released on October 31.
The BIG Preview
The stretch run begins next week, when Michigan travels to Happy Valley to face the Nittany Lions on ABC at 7:30 PM.
This game stayed on the list only because Karan Higdon scored a season-saving 25 yard touchdown in overtime after Indiana had erased a 10-point deficit against the Wolverines. Not helping matters for an already challenged Michigan offense was 16 penalties (a school record) for 141 yards. That’s not the kind of numbers well coached, disciplined teams put up.
Michigan’s defense, still allowing the fewest yards per game in the nation, is good enough to keep them in the game against anyone. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, their offense is bad enough to keep their opponent in the game, as it did in their narrow escape at Indiana. Higdon put up 200 yards rushing, but the passing game was futile, averaging a pitiful 2.9 yards per attempt.
This simply will not get it done against a team with weapons like RB Saquon Barkley and QB Trace McSorley, both playing at an All-American level and the top scoring defense in the nation. Penn State will have every home-field advantage working for it-a visit from ESPN’s GameDay, a White-Out, and a prime-time ABC broadcast atmosphere. Michigan’s defense will keep them in the game, but the Nittany Lions’ offense can simply make plays in the air that the Wolverines can’t. I like Penn State 24-13.
BTW, I was accused of being a Penn State fan this week. Please remember, I am a Maryland alum, and I’m pretty sure I would have to give back my diploma if I started rooting for the Nittany Lions.
BIG Notes
So, on the same day that Maryland’s bowl hopes were essentially dashed, their Athletic Director Kevin Anderson was fired, on October 1, kind of/sort of, maybe, then maybe not-yet. There is now a Kevin Anderson “situation.” Anderson has been clumsy in handling the football coaching changes from Ralph Friedgen and Randy Esdall. With the notable exception of football, however, the athletic program has been quite successful in recent years, winning more BIG championships than any other school since entering the conference. There has been personal friction reported between Loh and Anderson, including Loh’s anger of Anderson’s interest in the California AD job and cost overruns with the Cole Field House transformation into an indoor football facility. If Anderson’s time at Maryland is over, it would seem appropriate for it to end awkwardly.
Speaking of the Terps, they clinched no worse than a tie for first in the BIG Men’s Soccer regular season with an exciting (no, really) 5-4 win at Wisconsin. Not every school has caught the soccer bug like Maryland and, to a lesser extent, Indiana-only 659 Badgers’ fans wandered in on a Friday night to take in the game. The Terps’ biggest threat to spoil a second straight undefeated regular season is #9 ranked Georgetown. The Hoyas, with only one loss so far themselves, visit College Park Tuesday night. The win at Wisconsin was the 400th of Coach Sasho Cirovski’s career.
I saw a story on ESPN last week that noted a total of 13 football staffers at Wisconsin, including Head Coach Paul Chryst and Defensive Coordinator Jim Leohnard (the former Baltimore Raven) were alumni of the school. No surprise, with that continuity, that the Badgers teams look essentially the same year after year. They have strong defense, huge offensive lines that are great NFL draft bait, and punishing running backs that plow through defenses. It ain’t pretty but it has worked quite well since Barry Alvarez rebuilt the program 25 years ago.
Speaking of the Badgers, perhaps I spoke too soon when I recently handed out my non-existent Heisman vote to Saquon Barkley. Wisconsin freshman Johnathan Taylor is now third in the nation in rushing yards per game after going for 219 on 30 carries against Purdue. Taylor is on a pace where he could hit the 2,000 yard mark, which would surely earn him a trip to New York City for the Heisman ceremony, and perhaps a trophy to take home with him.
BTW, how silly does Gary Anderson look for leaving Wisconsin after only two season as head coach for the job at Oregon State? Anderson crashed and burned there, and threw his assistants under the bus on his way out the door, several of whom had followed him from Wisconsin. Bad career move there, Gary.
I would be remiss if I did not congratulate Rutgers (God bless ‘em) on their first conference win of the season, a 35-24 victory at Illinois, and offer my condolences to Illini fans as they are now likely to watch their team go winless in the BIG this season.
Justin Jackson became Northwestern’s all-time leading rusher in their win over the Terps. The Wildcats aren’t exactly known for their legacy of great running backs, but when you’re the best for any team that’s played for 135 years, that’s noteworthy.
Ohio State seems to have solved their earlier offensive woes, this week at the expense of Nebraska. The Cornhuskers drop to 3-4 and I am saddened watching at least the temporary disintegration of one of the great football programs in the nation. Nebraska gave up 41 first downs to the Buckeyes and 633 total allowing touchdowns on Ohio State’s first eight possessions in their 56-14 thrashing, one of the Cornhuskers worst performances at home ever.
Nebraska named Bill Moos their Athletic Director on Sunday. He moves over from Washington State, which has started rumors that Mike Leach might follow him as the new football coach. That does NOT seem like a good fit to me, but expect Moos to have the football situation as priority #1 in his new role.
Don’t forget, you can follow me on Twitter @The_BIGBlog and reach me by e-mail at big10blog@gmail.com. I also hang out on the message boards, mostly in the University of Maryland & NCAA sections, where I periodically post links to BIG news stories you might find interesting. You can also go there to find the Deified Dozen football national rankings by the experts (?) here at BSL.
Net week I’ll look back at the Michigan-Penn State showdown, forward to the huge Penn State-Ohio State matchup, and cover any other items of interest in the BIG. Until then, live large and have a BIG week everyone.
Jim Johnson spent most of his life in Maryland, growing up with the Orioles, the Colts, Terps, and later Ravens. He started his sports writing career as “The Courtmaster,” covering the Terps and ACC hoops and was a frequent guest on Bob Haynie’s old WNST show and other sports talk across the region. He is currently in his second run at BSL. After previously covering Maryland and Big Ten Football, he now writes about the NFL, primarily the action in the AFC North. Jim covers both current and historic stories, seeking perspective and having fun in the process.