Ravens Q&A w/ Nathan Jahnke, Pro Football Focus

Nathan Jahnke covers the NFL as an Analyst for Pro Football Focus (http://www.profootballfocus.com/).

You can find Jahnke’s work at:
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/author/packfan6/

You can find Jahnke on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/#!/PFF_NateJahnke

Baltimore Sports and Life thanks Mr. Jahnke for answering a few Ravens questions.

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In the horrific Monday night loss at Jacksonville, the Ravens looked remarkably inept. That carried over for nearly a half against Arizona. In the second half against the Cardinals, and in their other four wins, they have looked strong, and capable of more. As the season nears the mid-point, what teams do you believe to be more talented than Baltimore?”

Jahnke: “In the NFC I would just put the Packers and 49ers. During the Ravens low points their defense has still played well, but during the Saints low points their offense has struggled too which is why I put the Ravens ahead of the Saints. In the AFC, I don’t think I can say any are more talented, as anyone I thought about putting the Ravens have beaten already. While the offense has struggled; the defense still makes up for it.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “With McKinney at LT, Oher back at RT, and Yanda back at RG, the offensive line is improved from last year. While improved, the line has had their share of issues. With Ben Grubbs out of action since the opener, Andre Gurode has had to fill in. Oher looks more comfortable at RT, but continues to amass a large amount of penalties. McKinney is playing better than Oher did last year, but can be beat off the edge. What are your thoughts on the line overall, and when Grubbs returns; who should start at Center – Birk or Gurode?”

Jahnke: “I think that even though McKinney hasn’t been ideal at left tackle; that Oher is best fitted for right tackle and Yanda at right guard, so that part has helped. I think they are missing Grubbs, and once he’s back the line should look even better.

For center; at their ages, I don’t believe either is the long term solution so it makes sense to me to simply go with the better player. I believe that is Birk. In terms of pass protection, Birk has just allowed one sack and one hurry, while Gurode has allowed one sack, seven hits and eight hurries. By the ratings at Pro Football Focus, Birk has graded out as an above average run blocker, while Gurode has been below average. That makes Birk the clear winner to me.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Ian Rapoport of the Boston Herald recently told us that when Hernandez and Gronkowski are healthy, the Patriots are using them on the field together 80% of the time. Gronkowski has been in all 7 games, has 36 catches, and is averaging 13.8 yards per catch. Hernandez has been in 5 games, has 29 catches, and is averaging 10.3 yards per catch. Conversely, Dickson has 28 catches, and is averaging 9.6 yards per catch. Pitta has 16 catches, and is averaging 9.3 yards per catch. Both Ravens TE’s have played in all 7 games. It is true that Brady is not throwing to the Baltimore TE’s, but Dickson and Pitta do have the physical skills to mimic what the Patriots pair is doing. I believe the Ravens have to figure out how to utilize their pair better, and get them on the field together more often. Agree, disagree?”

Jahnke: “I do believe they should both be on the field more often, but only in clear passing situations and only until Evans is back. Clearly Boldin, Smith and Rice should be in the field, and both Pitta and Dickson have proven to be better pass options than Williams. The problem is they should only both be in for these formations, as both have been amongst the league’s worst run blocking tight ends. In New England, they can leave Gronkowski and Hernandez in for running plays because they are a lot better run blockers, where in Baltimore it’s a lot more beneficial to have Vonta Leach in. That is why you’re not seeing as many two TE sets as New England.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Lee Evans has played in just 2 games this year, as he deals with an ankle injury. In the absence of Evans, Torrey Smith has received extended time, showing his abilities at St. Louis. Assuming Evans returns at some point, Baltimore will have a number of options that can stretch the field, with Boldin and Rice operating underneath.

While we understand that teams want to be ‘multiple’ and be able to adapt and attack the differing styles of their opponents, I think there is something to be said about acknowledging what you do best and making people stop that. Baltimore still looks their best when they pound the rock and use play-action off that. Despite what we saw in Jacksonville, the Ravens can win most weeks without playing perfect or to their primary strengths. Are they better served trying to use the Regular Season to expand their passing attack, or should they spend most weeks trying to perfect ground and pound?”

Jahnke: “I think they know how to ground and pound, and it can be a winning strategy in most games. However in order to win it all; chances are they will need to rely on their passing attack at some point. The passing attack needs to get into some sort of sync at some point so when the time comes they are ready. Right now I wouldn’t trust the Ravens to come back from behind very often.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The Ravens defense is ranked number 1 overall, and with 25 sacks (tied for 2nd in the NFL) there is evidence they have been successful in bringing more pressure under new Defensive Coordinator Chuck Pagano, than they were under former Coordinator Greg Mattison. ESPN’s Monday Night crew spent time in the Jacksonville game talking about Baltimore blitzing roughly 50% of the time on 3rd down this season.

I imagine you like that aggression, what offensive lines do you think would match-up well with Baltimore? Do you believe the Ravens can be exposed against a prolific passing attack?”

Answer: “I think the Tennessee Titans have done the best job keeping their quarterback clean; allowing just six sacks over seven games. However they have been stumbling and don’t have a passing attack that would scare Baltimore. A more likely team to give the Ravens problems is Buffalo which has a much improved offensive line, as well as a passing attack that has hurt a number of teams already this year. I think the Ravens could be exposed; especially since this game would be played in cold weather with possible snow.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Ngata signed the 5 year contract extension, with $40M in guaranteed dollars. You can make the argument that with Suh, Ngata is one of the two best interior D-lineman in football. As the careers of Lewis, and Reed end; the Ravens defense will be built around Ngata, Suggs, and Smith. What were your thoughts on Ngata’s contract? Is it fair to ask if a cheaper extension could have been negotiated earlier in Ngata’s career, and prior to him having been named a Franchise player?”

Jahnke: “While it’s certainly possible they could have given him less money earlier on and gotten away with it; I think Ngata deserves that money. He has consistently been a very good player that you don’t want to let get away.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Next to Ngata on the D-line is Terrence Cody. Cody has lost a considerable amount of weight, and has been another upgrade for Baltimore as a replacement for Gregg. What are you seeing from Cody?”

Jahnke: “I think he’s been very average so far. He looked good in the run game early on, but recently his play has dropped off. He struggled a bit against the Texans who have one of the best run blocking lines in the league, and hasn’t made much of an impact in the past two games. As a pass rusher he has also been invisible with just two hurries on 88 pass rushes. While he isn’t making the big plays you would like to see out of him, he also isn’t making as many mistakes as rookies typically make.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “With a defense that includes Ngata, Lewis, and Reed; sometimes I think people overlook Suggs. To me, since the 2010 bye, Suggs has been playing at the highest level of his career. For his position, where do you rank Suggs with the rest of the league?”

Jahnke: “First off, we consider Suggs a defensive end because he lines up on the line more frequently than he lines up as a linebacker. In terms of pass rushing there have been plenty of people better, but it’s hard to find anyone who has been as good against the run. He’s looked good in coverage as well. In terms of having the complete package, only Michael Bennett of the Buccaneers has been as good.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Flacco has had two horrible games on the National stage this year against the Jets, and Jaguars. His completion percentage has dropped to 53.8% (career 60.7%). On the other-side, Flacco was excellent against Pittsburgh, and St. Louis. There are plenty of people in Baltimore (and Nationally) who believe Flacco is the one holding the Ravens back. Even if it is fair to question if he will ever be ‘elite’, I think his overall body of work has shown him to be a very solid QB.

Coach Harbaugh spent large parts of the off-season saying he wanted to see maturation in Flacco’s leadership, and that the QB would get the opportunity to make more adjustments at the line. If Flacco was calling more of his own plays, I feel like we would see more of the shotgun and spread formations he prefers. When the Ravens moved Flacco into the sugar huddle and shotgun Sunday, we saw the results immediately improve.

Flacco is in his 4^th year in Cam Cameron’s offense. Most people locally do not believe Cameron will return next year. At this point in Flacco’s career, should he be able to call his own plays? Do you believe the Ravens can win a Super Bowl with Flacco under Center?”

Jahnke: “With what I’ve seen out of Flacco this year; I wouldn’t trust him with a lot. While the play calling might not be ideal, he simply isn’t being accurate at throwing the football and I’m not sure if better play calling would make him more accurate. I do think they can win with Flacco under center just due to the talent on the roster. If they can win with Trent Dilfer than anything is possible.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “With the improved line in-front of him, Rice’s yard per carry has increased from 4.0 last year to 4.3 this year. He is on pace to again have 60+ receptions, and over 850 yards receiving. He has also stepped up and made several strong blocks in blitz coverage. Where do you rank Rice among RB’s? Should the Ravens be willing to give him $30M guaranteed (Chris Johnson dollars), or do you think RB’s are too replaceable to provide him with major dollars?”

Jahnke: “In terms of running with the ball, he is above average. I think a big part of his increase in yards per attempt is due to having Vonta Leach blocking in front of him. All of the numbers I look at put him in the middle of the league or a little above it. In the passing game, it’s hard to argue that anyone has been better than him. The more you care about how good a back is at catching the ball, the higher up the rankings he would go. I wouldn’t pay Rice or any running back the kind of money the Titans paid Johnson because of how replaceable backs are. A large part of that is how quickly they begin to decline.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Hypothetically, if the Ravens could only extend Flacco, or Rice – which one would you choose?”

Jahnke: “With how poorly Flacco has played this year, I would go with Rice.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Where and how will the Ravens season end? Will it be the end of the regular season January 1^st at Cincinnati? Will it be in the AFC playoffs? Will it be in the Super Bowl? Will it be with them hoisting the Lombardi Trophy?”

Jahnke: “I’ll go with the AFC playoffs. With two games against Cleveland, one against Indianapols and Seattle; that should be nine wins. Splitting against Cincinnati gets to ten which should be good for the playoffs; and this is assuming they lose to all of the very good teams they play. Until the offense gets its act together I don’t see them getting to the Super Bowl though.”