1) Does the team start the season with a 13 man staff? If you do, that means you are using a 3 man bench… that essentially is a 2 man bench, when you factor in the fact you will not use the back-up catcher.
1a) If you do use a 3 man bench, that means the team would essentially have Freel on the roster as the backup SS to Izturis.
1b) If the team is willing to use Freel as the backup SS in that scenario, why not use a 12 man staff, and a 4 man bench of backup C, Freel, Wigginton, and Montanez?
2) Give me any reason beyond his salary for Danys Baez to make the team. He has not started a game since 2002… he missed all of 2008, and was ineffective in 50 innings in 2007. There is no logical reason to believe he contribute as a starter. He is not going to raise his value enough in the rotation to be able to trade him, without eating all of his salary. Even if he was in the bullpen, he would not able to amass some cheap saves – when you already have Sherrill, Ray, and Johnson.
Baez needs to be cut.
3) Markakis is a wonderful all-around player, but the moment Wieters puts on an Orioles uniform – Markakis becomes the 2nd-most talented Oriole.
4) Unless they extend him prior to Opening Day, Wieters had better not be part of the Orioles team that comes North. Though he should be the O’s starting Catcher for at-least the next 7years starting April 17th.
5) Rich Hill being put on the DL to start the 2009 season is less about his ability to be ready, and more about the O’s brass using the DL as an option to bide them more time in figuring out how to put together the roster.
Uehara pitched 57 pitches yesterday, and will be ready to be the O’s 2nd starter April 8th. Hill pitched 4 times last week, including a 60 pitch bullpen session. Yes, I understand that 60 pitches in a bullpen does not equate to being game ready… but arm strength is arm strength… there is little reason to think Hill would not be ready to give 100 pitches as the Sunday, April 12th starter.
5a) When Hill does return, that will likely have Hendrickson back in the O’s bullpen. If Sherrill, and Hendrickson are in the same bullpen, what is the need for Jamie Walker?
6) Adam Eaton probably has more in the tank than say Steve Traschel did in his stints with the O’s. That said, he has been roughed up the last two years in the NL… moving to the American League East, will not help his numbers. I have no doubt that he will be capable of giving 12-15 starts, and 100 innings from now until June… have no doubt that can save some wear and tear on the bullpen… have total doubt on what that really accomplishes.
7) The O’s are waiting for the ‘Calvary’ of Matusz, Tillman, and Arrieta to arrive in Baltimore…. While we await their arrival, it would seem to be an opportune time to give as many innings as possible to the likes of Penn, Pauley, Albers, Liz, Bergesen, and Hernandez.
7a) Penn is still just 24… His AA, and AAA success at ages 20, and 21 earn him a spot on this roster…
7b) Pauley is 6 yrs younger than Eaton, and Baez… even if you can get him through waivers, exposing him would be a poor decision. Maybe he never amounts to even a 5th starter… but his AAA success last year, and his age… make him a better candidate for a roster spot than either Eaton, or Baez.
7c) If the O’s are not going to consider Liz as a starter this year… why would they possibly send him back to Norfolk as a reliever?
7d) Trembley said all Winter he wanted to use Albers as a starter, to avoid the wear and tear of a relief pitcher. In ST he quickly reversed that… why? With only two pitches, and limited K rates… Albers might not project great as a starter… but he does have the pedigree of being a former Baseball America Top 100 prospect, and the Texas League POY. Letting him start for 1/2 of the 2009 was not a horrible alternative.
7e) Bergesen is what he is… a strike-thrower with limited stuff… When the ‘Calvary’ arrives, he will have a hard time cracking the rotation… this is the perfect year to give him starts at the back of the rotation, and just ask him to give you innings without walks, and keep you in games…
8) Huff and Mora have the expiring 2009 contracts… though there is a team-option on Mora for 2010. The team did little to trade Huff in 2008, when he was having a career year… when he comes back to earth a bit in 2009, I can not see them trading him. If you tell Mora you will not pick up the 2010 option, would he then be willing to waive his No Trade Clause to move to a contender? I doubt it.
9) I think there is an outside chance that Huff is extended for a year or 2… but in March 2009, I am betting that Wigginton, and Snyder is the corner INF in 2010.
10) Going back to the ‘Calvary,’ nothing has changed my estimation times on their arrivals.
Matusz is going to start the year in Frederick apparently. They are not going to move him from their after 1 or 2 starts… you are probably looking at late-May at the earliest for a jump to Bowie. I think if the O’s really want to get a look at him at the Major League level prior to Spring Training 2010… they will bring him up in August for 2-3 starts… if he pitches in the Minors through August, he will probably have accumulated enough innings that they want to shut him down in September.
I am not sure starting him Frederick is a ‘mistake’, but it is a waste of time. His ability to work backwards, and use his off-speed stuff is going to overwhelm young-hitters…
Tillman is just turning 21… but he pitched 135 innings at Bowie last year, and was successful. I continue to see no reason, why he can not ascend to the Majors by the All-Star break. What the O’s will be looking for at Norfolk, is improved fast-ball command, and a corresponding ability to go deeper into games.
Arrieta is a former college pitcher, who had success at Frederick, and with the US Olympic team last year. As slow as the organization took it with him last year, I think is as fast-tracked as he will be this year. The team is clearly enamored with his ability to throw hard down in the zone, and his overall makeup. He starts putting up numbers at Bowie, he will be in-line for a promotion.
11) Unless Luke Scott is traded, or Felix Pie starts the year 10 for 150… Nolan Reimold is not going to get ML at-bats, without an injury occurring on the ML roster. Norfolk is not a great stadium for hitters, hopefully he will not get down on himself if it robs him of some stats. In a blog by MASN’s Steve Melewski Reimold says that going to Left-field will be an adjustment for him in 2009. With Nick Markakis as the O’s RF… explain to me why the O’s had him in RF in Bowie all of 2008? He could not have split time with Montanez?
12) I have been saying it since the O’s obtained him, watching Uehara in 2009 will be fun. Though he is turning 34, and not a long-term option… he establishes the O’s brand in Japan… and on the field this year, he will work quick, and throw strikes. I do not expect the guy that won 2 Japanese Cy Youngs… but I do expect a guy that keeps the O’s regularly in games over the course of 130-140 innings. After not starting the last two-years, going back to a rotation on shorter-rest, and adjusting to MLB is going to take its toll on him come the dog-days of summer.
13) Felix Pie is 24yrs old, and has had 260 Major League at-bats… wish people would stop talking about him in-terms of damaged goods.. In a lot of ways, he was the most important acquisition of the off-season. The O’s as a system lacks a ton of positional prospects… he has the potential to join Markakis, Roberts, Wieters, and Jones as a long-term piece of the puzzle.
His adjustment to LF, and his strike-zone judgment are going to take some time… a season without expectations of contention is a great opportunity to play him everyday… you are looking for month-to-month improvement.
14) I think 3 of the 5 best teams in baseball are in the American League East… that is 57 games against Boston, Tampa, and NY… O’s fans need to be conscious of that when evaluating the O’s record, and statistics.
15) Before Jones went down to injury, he was showing improved strike-zone judgment, and an increasing ability to go to Right-field with power… when he returned, his timing was off and he regressed… you really want to see him get off to a strong start… batting 2nd, in-between Roberts and Markakis… he is going to get a lot of fastballs to hit.
16) As we have said repeatedly… the back of the O’s bullpen with Sherrill, Ray, and Johnson can be very good. To me, the biggest question is not Ray returning… but can Johnson repeat his success? He pitched 68.2 innings last year, allowing only 54 hits, but with only 38 k’s. Opposing batters only had an OPS of .536 against him, and he held hitters to a 219 batting avg. If he is again anywhere near the outstanding 1.44 Grounders to FlyBall ratio, he will succeed even with a limited K-rate.
17) McCrory, and Mickolio have had strong Springs, and positioned theirselves for possible call-ups during the year.
18) As I suspected, you are already hearing whispers from Oriole fans about their fears about Patton. Just completely without merit to me. Patton turns 24 in September… meaning he will pitch nearly all of 2009 as a 23 year-old. He missed all of 2008 with the labrum injury… expecting him to come to Spring Training this year, and force his way on the roster was a pipe-dream. Let him go to AA/AAA this year… get 125 innings, build back his arm, and not worry about results.
You want him to come to Spring Training 2010, ready to earn a spot.
19) While I expect Izturis to be an upgrade to the horrible options used at SS during 2008, he is not a long-term option. Will the O’s address SS, with their 1st round pick in the June MLB Draft?
20) The most important thing to be accomplished in 2009, is seeing the progression of the players that can be the future core. That said, you do want to see some reflections of that on the field, and a team that improves as the season moves forward.
2010 contention might be a long-shot, but I do not want to go into that season, prepared to give away games. The goal in 2010, should be winning as many games as possible. For that to be a realistic goal, you need to give as much time and experience to players in 2009, that you would be requiring production from in 2010.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.