O’s Q&A with Dan Szymborski, Baseball Think Factory / ESPN

With the hiring of Dan Duquette, and the hot-stove league kicking into high gear, Baltimore Sports and Life has reached out to Dan Szymborski for his thoughts.

Szymborski is the Managing Editor for Baseball Think Factory, and a contributing writer to ESPN.

You can find Szymborski’s work with Baseball Think Factory at:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/

You can find Szymborski’s work with ESPN at:
http://search.espn.go.com/Dan-Szymborski/

You can find Szymborski on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/#!/DSzymborski

Baltimore Sports and Life thanks Mr. Szymborski for taking the time to answer a few questions.

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Dan Duquette  has been named the Orioles GM / Executive VP of Baseball Operations. I get the impression that Duquette has a chip on his shoulder, is hungry, and believes Epstein received too much of the credit he felt he deserved.

I’m thinking that even though the GM search was another PR nightmare for the O’s, that they still came out of this with a quality hire. Tony LaCava was a popular choice among many fans of the Birds for this position. I certainly recognized him to be capable, and would have supported that hire as well. For what ever reason, that hire was not able to be completed. Had LaCava been hired, the Orioles would have announced a 50 year-old first time GM. Instead they are announcing the hire of a 53 year-old, who has sat in the big chair (with success) a couple of times. Whatever went well (or bad) for Duquette with the Expos and Red Sox; Duquette has the advantage of leveraging those prior experiences.

My take is that O’s fans should give Duquette a fair shake and only concern themselves with what happens going forward.

What are your thoughts on Duquette, and how much does his absence from the game concern you?”

Szymborski: “Tony LaCava was the preferred choice of most fans that were following the story, but while LaCava was an excellent candidate who should eventually get a GM job elsewhere, there’s really nothing to worry about with Duquette.  Duquette’s not some anti-sabermetrics guy – he hired a stathead before it was cool in Mike Gimbel – and he was the farm director and then GM that built the Expos into a player-producing factory in the 90s.  Duquette’s only real issue is an occasional lack of tact with the media, which is a much bigger issue in Boston than it is in Baltimore.  I’m not sure the layoff concerns me too much – whatever contacts in baseball he missed out on in the last decade will be caught up fairly quickly.  He’s the GM after all and if another team has a player you want, you’re going to talk to that team no matter who’s running the show.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Duquette takes over a team which has had not had a winning season since 1997. He also takes over a team which has not even won 70+ games since 2006. Yet, it would also be unfair to say he inherits a total reclamation project either. There is enough talent on the Major League roster, that heading into the 2011 season the averaged predicted win total from 19 different analysts was 78. I still think the O’s underachieved this year. While all of the existing core players have plenty of questions, I still believe there is a decent group of players to move forward with.

Duquette made clear in his Press conference Tuesday that he plans to build the organization through Scouting (Amateur and International) and Player Development. If it seemed unlikely to Orioles fans that the O’s would bid on Fielder, or Darvish, etc. this off-season, I think it is fair to say those odds have been reduced further with the hiring of Duquette.

I see the O’s at a fork in the road. I lean towards believing a deeper rebuilding is necessary and should be the path traveled. However, there is a prevailing belief by many that Orioles Manager Buck Showalter wants to augment around the existing core. I can support heading in either direction, but what I want to see is a complete commitment to which ever road the O’s want to take.

What are a couple of things you believe the O’s should be working to accomplish this Winter?”

Szymborski: “Working and developing long-term strategic thinking and actually sticking to the plan rather than randomly trying to hotshot 81 wins every few years.  The O’s have to develop players like the Rays to be as good as the Rays and right now, that’s like trying to compete in the Indianapolis 500 with an old Chevy Chevette.  If the O’s want to be a serious, relevant team, then they have to make hard decisions, something the team avoids like the plague.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “During this past 2011 season, Showalter met regularly with Majority Owner Peter Angelos. Showalter has enough influence within the organization, that he was part of the interview committee with the prospective GM candidates. Presumably, Duquette and Showalter are currently on the same page.

However, if it becomes apparent that Duquette, and Showalter have differing philosophies of how the organization should be built (both in the immediate, and long-term) do you agree that Showalter’s opinions should be considered, but that the Manager reports to the GM; and thus the GM should have autonomy to make the moves they desire? If the O’s are going to listen to Showalter first, should he have been the one named the GM?”

Szymborski: “Duquette should take Showalter’s opinions into consideration, but the buck should stop with Duquette.  If Showalter wants to be the GM, then he should’ve put his name into consideration.  It’s very difficult to have a productive organization when responsibilities are vague and who answers to who is fluid.  If Duquette is only “sorta” Showalter’s boss, then his stint as GM has already failed.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Beyond the Major League team itself, Duquette also inherits a Minor League system with some high top-level talent, and a overall lack of depth. Last Winter, Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law both ranked the O’s system in the lower 1/3 of baseball. When we spoke with Baseball America’s Jim Callis last month (https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3047), Callis did not anticipate the O’s moving into the middle of the 2012 rankings.

Joe Jordan, who had been the Orioles Director of Amateur Scouting, has left the organization to become the Phillies Player Development Director. An immediate question for Duquette will be, who is he going to get to replace Jordan? One name that interests me is Amiel Sawdaye, who is currently Boston’s Director of Amateur Scouting. Sawdaye is not going to leave the Red Sox for a lateral position, but perhaps the Baltimore native would join the O’s if he was named Asst. General Manager? If not Sawdaye, are there other external options you can name that you believe Duquette should consider?”

Szymborski: “Sawdaye has a good reputation and theoretically, you could get Logan White or Mike Arbuckle for a high-ranking position (but I’m not aware what their current contract situations are).  The O’s are so far back in the scouting game that practically any plan would be better than no plan.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In a Baseball America poll (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/best-tools/2011/2612213.html) of Major League Managers, Adam Jones was ranked as the 2^nd best defensive CF in the American League. On the other-side you have the most advanced defensive metrics which state Jones is a below average CF. I tend to believe that the truth lies between those two extremes. Jones finished ’11 with a Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) of .339, and his Isolated Power (ISO) was .185. For the 2^nd consecutive year, he has played in 149+ games. For the 3^rd consecutive year his OPS fell within the range of .767 to .792. He finished with 25 homers, and 26 doubles. Jones is a Free Agent after the 2013 season. By Opening Day 2012, do you think the O’s need to have either extended him or traded him? If you would like to see him extended, what type of contract do you think would be fair?”

Szymborski: “I’m a believer in making decisions, pay or trade.  The Orioles are not a competitive team as I write this, so treading water doesn’t make sense.  All significant decisions the team makes should be long-term ones, not geared to maximizing wins in 2012.  This is an element that’s been completely missing from the organization for 15 years now and a big contributor to the non-sexy results in the interim.  I’d probably offer Jones a 3/30 extension and if he doesn’t bite, see if any GMs love his glove more than I do.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “If the O’s are ever going to be competitive in the near term, their young pitching has to produce. Matusz was extremely strong over his last 10 starts of 2010, and abysmal over his 12 outings in 2011. Like Jones’s defense, I think the truth about Matusz is probably somewhere in the middle, but he absolutely needs to earn his spot next Spring.

In 2011, Arrieta saw improvement in his K/9, Line Drive %, Ground Ball %, and First Strike % numbers. With the removed bone spur not directly at the elbow (and with him having surgery when he did), there seems to be confidence in his ability to have a normal throwing program this Winter. Obviously 21 homers in 119.1 ip is too much, and his fastball command has to increase.

There was been a lot to like about Britton’s rookie season, especially with how he responded to the adversity of July. Overall he finished 11-11, with a 4.61 era. In his 154.1 ip, he allowed 162 hits, 12 homers, 62 bb’s, with 97 k’s. His OPS against was .735, and he had a G/F ratio of 1.24. Like Arrieta, his fastball command needs to improve.

What are your current thoughts on these three?”

Szymborski: “Matusz is a tricky one, because only a doctor knows exactly what’s going on inside his arm.  And even doctors aren’t perfect at getting injured pitchers back on the mound – Mark Prior isn’t not throwing 200 innings a year because of subpar health care after all.  Matusz is a complete crapshoot at this point, though the O’s are in a position that they can wait him out.

I still think Britton needs another pitch to be a really solid starter, I suspect he’s going to end up as a reliever in the long run.  A good one, though.  As for Arrieta, I still think he’s 4/5 starter material and again, the O’s can wait him out and hope for development, but they shouldn’t be writing him into the 2015 rotation in ink.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Wieters finished with 50xbh’s (.450 Slugging) and was lauded as one of the best defensive catchers in the game. If you were starting a team – which catchers do you take before him?”

Szymborski: “Starting a team, if money’s a consideration, I probably wouldn’t take anyone else before Wieters.  He’s not at the level of all the jokes made after his signing, of course, but he’s the most well-rounded of the young catchers and has very few weaknesses in his game.  Santana’s a better hitter, but not as good a defensive player, Posey has injury concerns in the back of his head and McCann’s a little older and would be more expensive.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Prior to any external additions, the O’s likely 2012 roster currently resembles something like:

Guthrie, Britton, Hunter, Arrieta, Matusz
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Tillman, Simon, Bergesen, Patton

Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Reynolds 3^rd
Wieters C
Davis 1^st
Reimold LF
DH
Andino 2^nd

Roberts, Backup C, Angle, Adams

The Orioles 2011 payroll was roughly $85M. Those 23 players above are likely due somewhere between $65-$70M.

In 2011, the O’s spent about $10M on Amateur Scouting, and I believe around $1.5M on International Scouting. I think in generalities, you can estimate that the O’s have been willing to spend roughly $100-$105M combined on their Major League roster, Amateur Scouting, Intl. Scouting, Player Development, and Pro Scouting.

With Duquette stating he wants to build the organization, I think you have to expect that the 2012 payroll figures to be in the $85-$90M range, and could possibly be reduced. Considering Tampa Bay just went to the Playoffs for the 3rd time in 4 years with a payroll of just $41M, I feel that nobody should cry if the O’s 2012 payroll is reduced and reallocated to the other facets of Baseball Operations.

Beginning with the starting point of the existing roster, and an understanding of the limitations which will mark the O’s search; where and how can Baltimore improve through external additions? Do you agree that if the O’s are to have tangible improvement, it will come from within with currently existing parts?”

Szymborski: “There’s just not enough in the system to make tangible improvement that would get them up to that point.  If the O’s are to ever be a good team again, and a good team that’s not spending $200 million, a lot of the improvement is going to have to come from players not in the system or even yet in professional baseball.  Every time the O’s make any move, the two questions asked should be “Does this player have upside?” and “How does this help the Orioles long-term?”  The O’s are in no position to be a good team in the short-term (short of crazy spending), so any move in which the primary concern is the short-term is almost doomed from the start.  The Red Sox can think short-term.  The Tigers can think short-term.  The Rangers can think short-term.  The O’s cannot.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Let’s say the O’s signed the following players for the following contracts:

Sizemore: 1yrs $9M
Buehrle: 4yrs $50M
Barajas: 1yr $2.5M (Note from BSL, Barajas signed with Pittsburgh yesterday)
DeJesus: 1yr $5M

That would equal a $29M investment for ’12. Adding that to the $65-$70M payroll which currently exists, and we are talking about a payroll in the $94-$99M range. That would be elevated over last year, but probably palatable to the O’s.

This would leave the O’s looking like:

Buehrle, Guthrie, Britton, Arrieta, Matusz
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Tillman, Simon, Hunter, Patton

Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Reynolds 3^rd
Wieters C
Sizemore DH
Davis 1^st
DeJesus LF
Andino 2^nd

Roberts, Barajas, Reimold, Adams

While I think those moves would improve the O’s, Baltimore would still figure to reside in the bottom of the American League East (unless Britton, Arrieta, and Matusz drastically raised their games). If they are unlikely to move out of the cellar with such moves, do you think Baltimore would be better off saving their money?”

Szymborski: “It’s enough to probably fight it out with Toronto a bit, but the O’s have so many concerns that a short-term payroll increase if this amount really doesn’t do much for the O’s fighting the Big 3 in the East going forward.  Taking risks on players like Sizemore is interesting when it’s cheap, but while I love watching Mark Buehrle pitch, I don’t think Baltimore is the best fit for him.  Any extra dough that could theoretically be spent should be spent overhauling a rather lousy international presence the O’s have.”