O’s Hot Stove Talk

We recently spoke to a group of baseball writers (https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3301), who as a consensus advocated that the O’s focused efforts on improving internally as an organization, as opposed to chasing external additions that had minimal chances of improving the current on-field product.

Plenty of logic can be found in their collective comments. Whether you believe the O’s underachieved or not last year, the bottom-line is that they won just 69 games. Legitimately competing in the AL East does not seem a like a realistic near-term goal. We also agree with the idea that if the O’s are going to drastically improve any time soon, that improvement is going to come in large part from the players who are here already.

That said, Duquette signed a 3 year contract, and Showalter has 2 years remaining on his deal. I have to imagine that even if they will be working to improve the organization as a whole, they will still be unwilling to completely punt the 2012 season. This team does have to show some improvement (in-terms of wins and losses) and avoid seeing the O’s brand erode further through apathy.

The Baseball Operations Department can not operate worrying about how their moves (or non-moves) will impact Ticket Sales (Season and Individual), Suite Sales, Radio and TV Ratings; but obviously everyone in The Warehouse is aware that you have to be able to sell some level of ‘hope’. There are plenty of people that believe the O’s are comfortable with not making moves because this allows them to keep their dollars. That prevalent point of view is flawed, because the bottom-line is that the O’s would be more profitable if their on-field results were improved.

I can understand the O’s not having illusions about adding Pujols. I can understand the O’s weighing the risks of offering Fielder 6 years $140M or more. I do think there are other moves the O’s can make this off-season to improve. More importantly, I do think there is a core of players returning that you can build around.

I would like to see the following:

Cespedes: 5yrs $40M
DeJesus: 1 year $5M
Buehrle: 4yrs $50M
Doumit: 1yr $2.5M
Nakajima: 3yrs $10M  $5M posting fee

That would equal a $31.3M investment for ’12. Adding that to the $65-$70M payroll which currently exists, and we are talking about a payroll in the $96.3-$101.3M range. That would be a considerable increase over the $85M 2011 team salary, but it seems relatively plausible to me. This would leave the O’s looking like:

Buehrle, Guthrie, Britton, Arrieta, Matusz
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Tillman, Simon, Hunter, Patton

Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Reynolds 3^rd
Wieters C
Reimold DH
Davis 1^st
Cespedes LF
Nakajima 2^nd

Roberts, Doumit, DeJesus, Andino

I like that team. Cespedes and Nakajima would show new organizational intent to be players Internationally. They would also add athleticism (and potentially some pop) to the everyday lineup.

Would Buehrle be as good in the AL East as he has been in the Central? Probably not, but the 30 starts and 200ip he would figure to provide would help the entire staff. Buehrle has received a contract offer from the Marlins. I have not seen the numbers associated with that prospective deal. The Chicago Sun Times reported yesterday that White Sox GM Ken Williams is pessimistic about retaining Buehrle. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick is reporting that Buehrle is receiving interest from up to 10 teams.

I’m not expecting the O’s to bid or obtain the lefty. Without him, I see the O’s trying to bring in one (and possibly two) of pitchers like Paul Maholm, Rich Harden, Jason Marquis, Chris Capuano, Joel Pineiro, Bruce Chen, Ben Sheets, and Jeff Francis. Some interesting names that could potentially help the back of a rotation, but nobody you could have any real confidence in.

Like Buehrle, I do not have expectations that the O’s will obtain Cespedes. Cespedes has numerous teams that are interested, and will get to pick where he would like to go. Hard to imagine Baltimore being his choice. Though if the O’s offered similar dollars, and a starting spot in LF – who knows?

I’d like to see the O’s aggressively move on DeJesus. If you did not land Cespedes, DeJesus would be a fine option to start in LF. If you did add Cespedes, DeJesus as an option off the bench would be ideal. (If the O’s will not be bidding for Cespedes, I’d want Baltimore to also go after Sizemore, in addition to DeJesus I would rotate those two with Reimold between DH and Left.)

When we talked about Doumit last week, we spoke about how we believe his signing would be unlikely because of Showalter’s preference for a capable defensive backup as opposed to another stick.  Doumit would be my choice though. He has enough of a bat (.777 OPS in 1,967 career ab’s) to help. How many of us are tired of Sunday lineups with a Tatum esque hole in the lineup?

The Sun’s Dan Connolly mentioned that the O’s have interest in Nakajima as an option at 2nd or off the bench. That makes a lot of sense to me. The contract (and posting fee) we’ve suggested matches the contract and posting fee that the Twins paid last year for Tsuyoshi Nishioka. With Roberts being owed $20M over the next two years, the O’s are only going to be so aggressive about obtaining any additional options; but a $15M total investment over 3 years for a player with Nakajima’s potential is pretty reasonable. Between Nakajima and Andino, you would have two decent options for 2nd, and improve the bench with Nakajima or Andino over Adams.

The question I have about raising the payroll to that $96.3-$101.3M range, is wondering how that $11-$16M increase would impact the Amateur Scouting, International Scouting, Pro Scouting, and Player Development Departments. If you told me that the above signings would reduce the other internal organizational spending, I would be against those signings. If you told me that without those signings, that $11-$16M would also be reinvested, I would also be against those signings. If you tell me that those signings would no impact on the spend for those departments, that is when I could really get behind what I advocated above.

Do I think signing Buehrle, Cespedes, DeJesus, Doumit, and Nakajima would make the O’s contenders? No, I do not. I’m not even sure they would elevate the O’s to 4th place the AL East next year. I do think those signings improve the O’s though. In my eyes, they would also be more interesting, and easier to sell to the fan-base.