Final review of 2017 as dissected in the Parts 1-4 was a record of 9-7. Perhaps shockingly, or not, the Ravens were one 4th and 12 away from a playoff birth. Were the 2017 Ravens a playoff team that missed its calling or an over-achieving bunch that ended the season where they should have – on the outside, looking in through the window at the playoff party?
(Join the Discussion Board here)
Last year, here is a look back at the season win total predictions for the Ravens going into the 2017 season:
Vegas over/under: 8.5
Ravens got to 9 wins. Were many more possible? I re-submit games from weeks 6,14 and 17.
Week 6 – a home loss from a collapse at the end of the game to have a tie game broken by a late Bears field goal. No TDs by the offense and they still have a game but are unable to rally late at home and stop the Bears from winning.
Week 14 – They give up the last 10 points of the game and PIT wins by a point.
Week 17 – Well documented loss to CIN and the Ravens bounce themselves out of the playoffs.
We’ll probably be a little careful going too far over the top with weeks 14 and 17. If they would have won those two games, they would have hit their last 9 games of the season with an 8-1 mark.
What team will show up for 2018?
Let’s start with the division – AFC North has the Browns and perhaps they are not a “get well week” anymore. Much has been said about the resurgence of the Browns as they approach 2018 and thebetting action on them to win the AFC North. Can the Ravens still go 2-0 against Cleveland and can they go 2-0 against Cincinnati? The last time the Ravens went 2-0 vs Cincinnati in a season was back in 2011. Can the Ravens split with PIT? They did sweep the series in 2015 from Steelers. Is 5-1 in the division a real possibility for this team?
What do some other people think? The Ravens preseason rankings:
Below them in the rankings are the division foes Bengals and Browns. Also below them are the Bucs and Bills. That would be 6 games but this ranking is fluid and will change as the season unfolds. Two teams sit just above them in the current rankings – Denver and Oakland.
In this ranking – the Ravens are ranked above the Broncos and Raiders. Bleacher Report’s perhaps least surprising comment: “The team could hang around in the AFC North if it can avoid major injuries and get a break or two. But the Ravens don’t have much margin for error.”
Vegas at 8 with -165 on over and +135 on under
Forbes odds are 8.5 at -130 on the under.
Bleacher Report: Baltimore Ravens: 8 (-145/+125) Meaning that it would take a $145 bet to win $100 on the under and a $100 bet would get you $125 winnings if they go over 8. They expect them to stay under 8….
2018 SEASON PREVIEW… BREAKING THE SEASON INTO 4 QUARTERS
1st quarter: Buffalo and Denver look good. On the road to CIN and PIT does not look so good but CIN could be down a bit. And MAYBE they can catch PIT sleep walking thru their second home game of the year. Probably a stretch. Great would be 3-1, probably looking at 2-2. A disaster would be 1-3.
2nd quarter: Make or break… 3 road games in this stretch. CLE is much improved and then to TEN, NO and CAR. Those are three good teams until we find out otherwise. Very successful would be 3-1… probably 1-3 record.
At the midway point: Count up the “probably” from quarters 1 and 2 of the season and we have a 3-5 record. A very successful first half would have them at 6-2. If Joe Flacco regains even “pro bowl alternate” form, they should have more than 3 wins.
3rd quarter of the season: PIT and ATL are good teams – very good. By this portion of the season, PIT should be in full focus mode – they should be tough unless Big Ben is dinged up. They will have to be able to beat OAK and CIN. Best looks like 2-2 and probably 2-2 but 1-3 looms.
4th quarter: What if they need a late season rally? They play at KC – not easy with those vocal fans. Tampa Bay could have already sacked their bats. Chargers could be wrapping up their division crown and then Clevland at home. If the Ravens need a 3-1 stretch at this point – that would probably be tough. Best would be 3-1 but probably 2-2.
My prediction…. 6-10. I think they stumble to 3-5 out of the gate and finish up 3-5 on the back end.
How do they make the playoffs? Let’s say they need 10 wins to get into a wildcard as PIT should win the division. How do they do it… Flacco blows up and they fix the late game collapse issues. They must start the season fast with 3-1 or somehow 4-0. Either one and they would look good to sit 6-2 at 8 games. They finish the season 5-3 by getting hot out of the bye with 2 wins and go 3-2 to finish the season up before entering the playoffs. But as the Bleacher Report said… “The team could hang around in the AFC North if it can avoid major injuries and get a break or two. But the Ravens don’t have much margin for error.” IF……
Dr. Guyader is the Owner / Founder of The Q5.com, which specializes in Football Visualizations and Drive Analytics. Additionally, Guyader has 10 years of Division I football experience coaching top-tier and historic programs. From guiding third round NFL draft pick Ramses Barden for four seasons at Cal Poly to converting 6-foot 10-inch lineman Ali Villanueva to wide receiver at the United States Military Academy at West Point, Andy knows how to coach on the field and how to game-plan in a meeting.