The Baltimore Ravens have written just the first few chapters of the 2018 season.
Their 3-2 record leaves open the possibility of a division crown as well as another year without a playoff berth. Their offensive performance could prevent a quarterback change from happening until the offseason but doesn’t prevent Lamar Jackson from taking over in the coming months. Their defensive prowess has limited four out of five opponents to 14 or fewer points, but age and injuries could dull the unit’s impact over time.
But while much remains uncertain about the 2018 Ravens, the team has made at least three things clear through five games.
[Discuss this article on the BSL board]
The receiving corps makeover was a success
Since winning a title in 2012, the Ravens have lacked a receiving corps capable of opening up all areas of the passing game. General manager Ozzie Newsome certainly made efforts, spending a multiple first- and second-round picks on pass catchers as well as signing some in free agency in hopes of transforming the group.
However, additions like Breshad Perriman, Maxx Williams, and Jeremy Maclin ultimately amounted to little, and the offense suffered over the past few years as a result. Accordingly, when Baltimore’s front office built its latest receiving corps out of free-agent afterthoughts such as John Brown, Michael Crabtree, and Willie Snead, another underwhelming aerial attack seemed inevitable.
At least so far, the group has not only outperformed expectations, it has indeed turned the passing game into one of the most efficient in the league. The three free-agent wideouts each rank top-4 in receptions for Baltimore and together make up over 47 percent of all catches on the team.
Brown in particular has put on a show, putting up a conference-best 20.8 yards per catch among players with at least 15 receptions. That production puts him in the same class as DeSean Jackson and Brandin Cooks, two elite deep threats who earn on average more than double and triple Brown’s 2018 salary, respectively. Brown entered Week 6 tied for the seventh-most receptions of 20 or more yards in the league, tied with Jackson and just two behind Cooks, Tyreek Hill, and Robert Woods. From any perspective, Brown’s signing has proven to be an unqualified success for the Ravens.
And while their play hasn’t matched that of Brown, Crabtree and Snead deserve plenty of credit for Baltimore’s improved passing game. Both have become crucial options when the offense needs to move the sticks, combining to generate 30 first downs so far in 2018. Besides Crabtree and Snead, only Brown and running back Alex Collins have reached double digits in that metric for the Ravens.
The trio of Brown, Crabtree, and Snead has helped quarterback Joe Flacco to his strongest five-game start in at least three years. Granted, Flacco remains maddeningly inconsistent and still has room for improvement. Still, for a quarterback that seemed DOA entering the 2018 season, he has performed admirably, something that almost certainly would not have transpired without the Ravens’ new-look receiving corps.
The running game is broken
While the passing game has made significant strides since last season, the ground attack has fallen off considerably. A year ago, the Ravens finished seventh in rushing offense by DVOA. Entering Week 6, that position has fallen all the way down to No. 24.
The same cast of running backs from 2017’s potent running game returned this season. Alex Collins, who rushed for nearly 1,000 yards on just 212 carries, leads the group. He has seen the most carries of any Baltimore running back thus far, though his workload has dipped compared to a year ago. The coaching staff has developed a penchant for feeding backup Javorius “Buck” Allen near the goal line despite his far-from-stellar 2.8 yards per carry. Regardless of why Collins finds himself in a timeshare, he hasn’t matched last year’s efficiency, averaging less than 4 yards per carry with more big gains in the passing game than on the ground.
Making the drop-off even more puzzling, the offensive line essentially added two quality starters from the end of 2017. Guards Marshal Yanda and Alex Lewis returned from injured reserve to stabilize the interior of the unit, something that should have provided a boost to the rushing attack. Instead, it has devolved into one of the worst in the league.
The Ravens have few realistic options for jumpstarting their moribund ground game. Committing more carries to Alex Collins would improve efficiency, though that says more about Allen’s struggles than anything else. The front office could acquire a superior rotational back or new starter via trade, but that would likely require a draft pick, something Newsome and GM-in-waiting Eric DeCosta have rarely opted to relinquish. Furthermore, the two most attractive options, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Le’Veon Bell and the Buffalo Bills’ LeSean McCoy, come with financial and off-the-field complications, respectively. Both appear long shots for Baltimore at this point.
Most likely, the offense will struggle to move the ball on the ground for the rest of the season. Such an outcome wouldn’t automatically doom the Ravens’ playoff hopes, but it could cost the team a win or two.
The AFC North is within the Ravens’ grasp
On paper, the Steelers have the most talented squad in the AFC North. They also rank last in the division entering Week 6, tied with the Cleveland Browns at 2-2-1. While the 2018 season has yet to reach its midpoint, Pittsburgh might have already itself into a hole that will prevent it from securing a third-straight division crown.
Naturally, that leaves an opportunity for the other playoff-capable teams in the AFC North. The Cincinnati Bengals hold the early advantage over Baltimore courtesy of their superior 4-1 record and head-to-head tiebreaker over the Ravens.
Still, the Ravens have another matchup with the Bengals to nullify the tiebreaker and a manageable remaining schedule. Though the slate includes several difficult matchups, the most challenging opponents like the Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints will face off against Cincinnati as well. Furthermore, the Bengals’ best offensive players, wideout A.J. Green and running back Joe Mixon, have already dealt with injuries. If either ends up missing an extended period later in the year, it could short-circuit their division-title hopes.
The path to the AFC North crown looks far from easy, and a Steelers revival could loom on the horizon, but the Ravens have the tools necessary to navigate the challenges.
Jason B. Hirschhorn is an award-winning sports journalist and Pro Football Writers of America member. He has bylines at NFL.com, SB Nation, Sports Illustrated, and other outlets.