Ravens: The Path From 4-4 To The Post-Season

After a 36-21 defeat in Charlotte against the Panthers; the Baltimore Ravens are now 4-4 overall with half of the 2018 regular season remaining.

Is there a reasonable path to the post-season for the first time since the 2014 season?

Only if they can pick themselves up off the ground, and quickly regroup.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

It’s understandable that the bandwagon is a bit lighter this evening.  The performance this afternoon was disheartening.

Yes, the absences on the offensive-line help explain why Flacco faced consistent pressure.

Yes, with that consistent pressure, we all get why the passing offense was limited to mostly quick plays underneath.

Yes, the Ravens pass coverage is demonstrably worse without Marlon Humphrey.

If you point to those items and say that each impacted the game; that’s fair.
If you point to those items and say that is why the game was lost; that’s stretching.

If you want to pick at the reasons why the Ravens lost today to determine if those items can be corrected and/or improved upon going forward; have at it.

Ultimately the bottom-line is that they lost. And with that loss, their path to the post-season was reduced.

With 1/2 a season under their belts, I think we’ve seen enough of the Ravens to confidently say we know a few things:

– The struggles in the rushing offense are legitimate.  They did average 5.6 yards per carry today, including 4.5 from Collins on his 11 carries – so maybe there was some improvement? The running game struggles are another reason to see more of Jackson situationally, as his efforts improve the overall ground game. I’m sure we’ll see more jet sweeps etc. as well.

– The normally great Special Teams have not been particularly Special so far in ’18. Overall, I still think you have to feel pretty good about the unit when it begins with Tucker and Koch.

– The passing game is improved over the past several years. Flacco’s footwork is better. His weapons at WR are better vs. what has existed for sometime. He has four useful weapons at TE. Flacco averaged a sad 4.9 yards per attempt today; but that was primarily due to not having the time to push down the field. (The picks were 100% on Joe though.)

– This isn’t an all-time great defense; but it very well may be the best defense going here in 2018. Today’s game was disappointing though. The Ravens start the game with a strong 7 minute drive and a score. The defense allows the tying score by Quarter end. A turnover puts the Panthers just 12 yards out; but the defense wasn’t able to hold Carolina to a FG attempt. Carolina starts on their own 1, and marches 99 yards to go up 21-7. Another lapse allowed Carolina to go up 24-7 on a FG to end the half.  The Ravens pull within 13 to end the 3rd Quarter, and the defense allows an 85 yard drive to effectively end the game.

They generally tackle well. There is better athleticism. They play with some aggression. Can they generate more turnovers in the 2nd half?

They don’t have to pitch a shutout every week. They don’t have to be the 2000 Ravens*.
They do have to get stops on 3rd down. They do have to get consistent pressure.

*By the way, even the ’00 Ravens had a couple of weeks (Jacksonville, New York Jets) where they were shredded a bit through the air.  Point being that even one of the best units ever had weeks where they didn’t look like it.

– James Hurst was quite the whipping boy in Baltimore for some time. We’re now at the point where we’re actively looking for his return. Get Hurst back. Get Lewis back. Hope Stanley’s knee issues today are not serious. If healthy, it’s not a great line. But I think it’s reasonable to think if healthy, the line can be average ish. Brown getting time the last few weeks might end up being a blessing.

 

Bill Parcells famously said you are what your record says you are.
The Ravens current record says they are an average team.

I think these Ravens are a bit better than what their record indicates.

Well maybe I should state that differently.

I think this team has the capability of reaching the post-season, and being a difficult out.

Some will find that statement realistic.
Some will find that statement silly.

What I think we can all agree on is that the Ravens will likely need to win 6 of their last 8 regular season games to earn the right to play games in January.

Remaining Schedule:
Nov. 4th Pittsburgh
Nov. 11th Bye
Nov. 18th Cincinnati
Nov. 25th Oakland
Dec. 2nd @Atlanta
Dec. 9th @Kansas City
Dec. 16th Tampa Bay
Dec. 22nd @LA Chargers
Dec. 30th Cleveland

– You’ve got each of the remaining AFC North games at home. All of the games figure to be typical division fight. The Ravens won’t have any trouble being up and and ready for the Steelers. You won in Pittsburgh, you need to win at home. You win that game, you get the bye and a chance to really regroup. The Bengals have been a thorn for some time. You lost in Cincinnati, you have to defend the home field. If you can’t beat Cleveland at home in a game you likely need to win; you don’t deserve to go to the playoffs.

– Oakland is playing for the move to Vegas in 2020.  The Ravens aren’t losing that game.

– The Falcons aren’t imposing; but obviously you respect the offense. Also given the Ravens road woes in recent years, the odds say L. It’s a swing game. If the Ravens have beat Pittsburgh, had their bye, beat Cincinnati, and beat Oakland; winning in Atlanta would really cap that run.

– I think the Ravens defense will slow the high-flying Kansas City offense, and I expect Flacco to put up some points on the Chiefs. Still, you have to expect a loss here at this time.

– Tampa Bay turned back to Fitzmagic today after Winston’s 4 picks. Who knows where the Bucs will be team wise in mid-December. They do have some weapons. We can expect playing in Baltimore in December won’t be fun for them. Again, at home, you expect to win that game.

– The Chargers are good. I think they are a team capable of winning the AFC.  I also think the Ravens will enjoy heading West in late December, and won’t be intimidated playing in a soccer stadium the Chargers having trouble selling out. If  you were giving odds today, you’d favor LA, but I completely think the Ravens can win there. If you are going to make the playoffs, or do damage in the playoffs; eventually you have to beat someone good.

As our BSL Colleague Mike Randall wrote the other day, the Ravens are not alone with their flaws.

Every team has their strengths and weaknesses.

We know New England is winning the East.
We know that Kansas City and the Chargers are both in-great position in the West.

It appears that only 1 team will come out of the South, with Houston starting to separate, and Jacksonville having a hugely disappointing season.

So, we’re probably looking at two teams coming out of the North.

It’s pretty hard to envision a scenario where the Ravens reach the post-season without beating Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.  Obviously the Ravens players and coaches can’t be thinking of anything but the Steelers. I guess in that sense, I’m pleased Pittsburgh is next up on the schedule. You know focus won’t be an issue.

I think the Ravens have enough strengths to earn their way to January; but it’s not going to be easy.
Their margin for error is nearly non-existent. It’s pretty hard to envision a scenario where the Ravens reach the post-season without beating Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.  Obviously the Ravens players and coaches can’t be thinking of anything but the Steelers.

For the next few days, Harbaugh should do his best Belichick.

Media: “Coach, what went wrong against Carolina?”
Harbaugh: “We’re on to Pittsburgh.”

Lose to Pittsburgh, and the talk over the 2nd half figures to be less about getting to the Postseason, and more speculation over when the Jackson era begins, and if the Harbaugh era is ending?

Beat Pittsburgh, get healthier over the bye, and things can come together over the 2nd half.