Reviewing the 2018 Arizona Fall League campaigns of Martin Cervenka, Ryan McKenna, and Steve Wilkerson.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
Name: Martin Cervenka
Age (as of September 1, 2018): 26y, 0m
Position: C
Bats/Throws: R/R
Present Role: 30
Future Role: 40 (Bench Player)
ETA: 2019
2018 Level: Bowie (AA)
AFL STATISTICS
AB’s: 45
AVG: .200
OBP: .217
SLG: .356
ISO: .156
K: 7
BB: 1
SCOUTING CONTENT:
Spotlight
Video
OVERALL SUMMARY:
Cervenka is coming off his best offensive season as a pro, having hit 15 homers in Double-A last season while posting a slugging percentage north of .450 for the first time in his career. A stronger Fall League would have helped quell questions about his bat actually being able to compete at the big league level, but instead, a paltry .200/.217/.356 output for Glendale raises the same questions. In the best case scenario, Cervenka’s average defense and occasional homerun power get him to the big leagues in a reserve role. Because his glove is average (not a true plus), if there’s no offensive value serving as a second catcher, he will wind up a high-minors/4A journeyman.
THE FUTURE:
Baltimore will have to decide on whether to add Cervenka—who is eligible for the Rule V Draft—to the Major League 40-Man Roster. It’s almost certain they will add him to the AAA Norfolk roster, which would protect him from being selected in the Minor League Phase of the R5 (coincidentally, the same round the Orioles selected him last year). It seems likely Cervenka will be in a Major League Spring Training camp next March trying to win a job as a backup.
Name: Ryan McKenna
Age (as of September 1, 2018): 21y, 6m
Position: CF
Bats/Throws: R/R
Present Role: 40
Future Role: 50 (Everyday Player)
ETA: 200
2018 Levels: Frederick (A+), Bowie (AA)
AFL STATISTICS
AB’s: 58
AVG: .345
OBP: .472
SLG: .603
ISO: .205
K: 16
BB: 6
SCOUTING CONTENT:
Report
Video
OVERALL SUMMARY:
McKenna was arguably the biggest riser on the farm in 2018, and he stayed hot in the AFL on the heels of his breakout season. He keeps getting better every year, now grading as a potential everyday centerfielder and looking like a valuable big league piece in some capacity.
THE FUTURE:
McKenna’s plus speed and outfield defense could technically help a big league club right now off the bench (Present Role 40), but he’s enough of a prospect that the Orioles will likely give him another year in the minors to develop offensively. 2020 is likely the earliest O’s fans see McKenna at Camden Yards.
Name: Steve Wilkerson
Age (as of September 1, 2018): 26y, 7m
Position: 2B/UTIL
Bats/Throws: S/R
Present Role: 40
Future Role: 40 (Bench Player)
ETA: 2018
2018 Levels: Norfolk (AAA), Baltimore (MLB)
AFL STATISTICS
AB’s: 66
AVG: .273
OBP: .363
SLG: .333
ISO: .060
K: 15
BB: 10
SCOUTING CONTENT:
Spotlight
Video
OVERALL SUMMARY:
The 26-year-old Wilkerson returns to the AFL for a second time after missing stretches of the 2018 season. He started last season on the Restricted List serving a 50-game amphetamines suspension, missing time later in the year with oblique and hamstring issues. There isn’t enough offensive impact for him to be an ideal fit in a regular role, but his contact and defensive versatility make him a big leaguer. Good job by Orioles scouting and PD getting value out of a homegrown player.
THE FUTURE:
If fully healthy, Wilkerson should be able to serve as a role player next year for the Orioles.
A native of Washington, D.C., Adam will be periodically contributing scouting pieces on Orioles prospects for Baltimore Sports and Life. Currently, he’s the Assistant Director of Professional Evaluation at 2080 Baseball. Previously, Adam worked in the Baseball Operations departments of the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers after serving as a Senior Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus. You can follow him on Twitter: @2080adam. Adam can be reached at amcinturff@2080baseball.com for all podcast and media requests.