Football is a funny sport. 4 weeks ago, the Ravens were coming off of a disappointing home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in a game that felt winnable. There was plenty of criticism to go around for the QB, the defense, the offense and the coaching staff. At 4-5, any talk of the postseason seemed ridiculous, but then something happened; the Ravens won 3 games in a row spurred by a somewhat easier slate of games and a different offensive approach implemented to provide rookie QB Lamar Jackson the tools to succeed as he filled in for Joe Flacco.
The Ravens are now in control of their own postseason destiny with the Division title only a half game out of reach. That’s the good news. The bad news is the Ravens now have probably their hardest two games left, both on the road, in the next 3 weeks. This week’s match-up against Kansas City probably would have looked like a laugher a month ago, and the home team Chiefs are still a TD favorite, but the upstart Ravens led by a re-invigorated defense and ball-control style of offense have a very different feel to them. All signs are once again pointing to Lamar Jackson starting on Sunday even though Flacco has seen increased work in practice as he comes back from his hip injury. With the 3 game winning streak putting the Ravens firmly in AFC contention, do they have a legitimate chance of upsetting the Chiefs at home? Let’s take a look at some of the key match-ups to find out.
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The Ravens have taken advantage of some porous run defenses the past three games in route to the victories. Over these 3 weeks, the Lamar Jackson led offense has totaled at least 200 yards rushing on the ground in each game and are averaging 4.9 YPC and 238 yards per game. Those are fairly absurd numbers in today’s pass-happy NFL. The Ravens will once again face a porous run defense, so the opportunity to employ a similar ball-control offense should be available. The Chiefs allows a league worst 5.1 YPC to opposing rushers and also rank dead last in run defense DVOA.
Running the ball and keeping the Chiefs explosive offense off the field should certainly help the Ravens chances at winning this game, but the offense must also improve in their ability to convert long drives into TDs. Over the past 3 weeks, the Ravens have actually decreased the number of Red Zone scoring opportunities per game from 3.6 to 3.3 and at 50% TD conversion rate, also down from 62% on the season, they have simply not been putting enough points on the board needing ST and Defensive scores to supplement offensive inefficiency. Where the Ravens have improved is converting 3rd downs as the conversion rate has jumped up from 47% to 52%, which are both excellent marks. For whatever reason, the Ravens offense has been stalling in the opponent’s territory, which has led to many FGs. If Jackson and the Ravens offense can figure out a way to solve this issue, they will have a real chance to win.
The Ravens defense will be pitted with the unenviable task of trying to slow down the Chiefs top rated offense. Kansas City is averaging an astonishing 37 Points per game while picking up 7.0 yards per play on offense. It often only takes a couple plays for the Chiefs to score a TD. At 8.9 YPA, the Chiefs lead the league in passing offense efficiency, and while their rushing yardage totals are in the middle of the pack, their 4.9 YPC is also top 5 in the NFL. Of course the Chiefs are now playing without their RB Kareem Hunt, which should put a slight damper on their rushing efficiency but back-up Spencer Ware is a formidable RB in his own right. The Chiefs will also be without WR Sammy Watkins in this upcoming match-up, but even with these losses Kansas City boasts elite playmaking talent at QB, WR and TE.
WR Tyreek Hill is probably the fastest skill player in the NFL, and his pure speed and ability to stretch the field is game-changing. The Ravens defense must account for Hill at all times, and not just as a pass-catcher, as Hill will be used a couple times per game as a ball-carrier where he averages over 11 YPC. The Chiefs other main target in the passing game is TE Travis Kelce, who is one of the elite talents in the NFL at his position. Kelce is as athletic a TE as you will find in the game, and he is also a crafty route runner with excellent hands. Both of these players are match-up nightmares, and Andy Reid has figured out how to use them in such a manner to perfectly complement each other.
Of course the MVP of the Chiefs offense, and probably the league, is 2nd year QB Patrick Mahomes. It is truly incredible to watch how locked into the Chiefs offense he is at all times. Mahomes is the prototypical QB in today’s NFL combining excellent mobility and athleticism with accurate ball placement and one of the strongest arms in the game. If there is one knock on Mahomes it would be his tendency to turn over the ball as he has thrown 10 INTs and fumbled 5 times on the season. He can at times get rattled by the pass-rush and make poor decisions, which is to be expected of any young QB.
The Ravens defensive game-plan in this match-up must start with figuring out ways to confuse Mahomes and generate a pass-rush. OLB Za’Darius Smith has been the Ravens best pass-rusher, and he will need to be at his best this week to give the Ravens a chance. Ravens DC Wink Martindale has been aggressive with his willingness to bring extra pass-rushers this season, and this is a game where he may need to throw the whole play-book at Mahomes. On the back-end, it is really not possible to cover Hill and Kelce one on one in man coverage, but the Ravens may look to use some bracketing techniques in an attempt to take away the Chiefs best weapons. I also anticipate a good amount of zone, probably more Quarters and Cover 6 than Cover 2, in order to make Mahomes throw the ball underneath. In the end, the Ravens will have to hope to force Mahomes into some mistakes that lead to turnovers and more than anything else limit the explosive plays.
The Ravens showed last week that they can shut down an explosive offense on the road, and this upcoming game should be an even stiffer challenge. The blue-print to win the game is there for the Ravens: shorten the game by controlling Time of Possession while converting drives into TDs on offense. On defense, they must find a way to pressure Mahomes and limit the big plays. If they can do those two things, the Ravens could come away the upset victory. The Ravens are probably the toughest defense the Chiefs have faced yet this season, so it should be an extremely fun game to watch. In the end, I think the Chiefs just have too much talent on offense for the Ravens to keep up, and even though the Ravens may limit the Chiefs more than they are used to they still come up short 20 – 28.
Ravens Analyst
Gabe is an avid fan of the NFL and Ravens football. He grew up in Westminster, MD, and attended college at Johns Hopkins University majoring in Biology. He earned his Ph.D. in Molecular Biology from the University of California, Los Angeles, and now works as a R&D Scientist developing Transplant Diagnostics assays. Gabe has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan.