We conclude our four-part series on the Top 40 Prospects in the Baltimore Orioles organization as the 2019 season begins.
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(#10) Blaine Knight, RHP
Ceiling: 50 Risk: Extreme ETA: 2021 Role Description: League Average Starter (#4/#5 SP)
Ht/Wt: 6’3” / 170 lbs. B/T: R/R Highest Level: SS-A Age (as of April 1, 2019): 22y, 9m
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The Orioles drafted Knight in the third round last year as he was leading Arkansas to a College World Series run. He reported to Aberdeen in the New York-Penn League, pitching sparsely after signing due to his heavy college workload. Knight has the upside of a legitimate rotation piece, showing three usable pitches and a fastball that tops out in the 95-to-96 mph. He’ll need to prove that an extra-lean body can hold his stuff pitching every fifth day at the pro level. Baltimore has quietly amassed a strong group of pitching prospects in the last three drafts, and that group will get a huge boost if Knight establishes himself as one of the top arms in the system.
(#9) Zac Lowther, LHP
Ceiling: 45 Risk: High ETA: 2020 Role Description: Swingman
Ht/Wt: 6’2” / 235 lbs. B/T: L/L Highest Level: A+ Age (as of April 1, 2019): 22y, 11m
Video #1 | Video #2 | Video #3 | Report
The crafty lefty has done nothing but dominate since signing with the O’s as the 74th overall pick in 2017. He coasted through the New York-Penn League after signing, pitching similarly well last year across two A-Ball stops. Despite only working in the 88-to-92 mph range on his fastball, Lowther gets swinging strikes because of excellent deception and late ride. He works with four pitches, pairing the fastball with an average curve, playable changeup, and show-me slider. Lowther ties this pitch mix together with plus control and command, able to spot numerous pitches around the zone. He has the makings of an overachiever, potentially finishing a back-rotation option or versatile swingman with some chance to exceed that.
(#8) Luis Ortiz, RHP
Ceiling: 45 Risk: Moderate ETA: 2018 Role Description: Swingman
Ht/Wt: 6’3” / 230 lbs. B/T: R/R Highest Level: MLB Age (as of April 1, 2019): 23y, 6m
Video | Report
Ortiz was one of the three prospects Baltimore returned for Jonathan Schoop last year. He got two appearances in the big leagues at the end of September and should get a chance to earn a role on the O’s staff in 2019. Ortiz works off a sinking fastball in the 90-to-94 mph range. His velocity wavered at times last season, more effective when he was fresh enough to work more at 93-to-94 mph. Both his mid-80s slider and changeup grade as playable offerings, able to stay around the zone with different speeds. No one pitch is dominant, but a sturdy frame and the sum-of-parts add up to a swingman or lesser #5 rotation piece.
(#7) Ryan McKenna, OF
Ceiling: 50 Risk: High ETA: 2020 Role Description: Everyday Player
Ht/Wt: 5’11” / 185 lbs. B/T: R/R Highest Level: AA Age (as of April 1, 2019): 22y, 1m
Video #1 | Video #2 | Video #3 | Report
Hailing from the Northeast prep ranks, McKenna was seen as an athletic speedster who needed reps against better competition as an amateur. That proved to be the case his first two seasons as a pro, as McKenna didn’t start to show much life offensively until last year. He broke out in a big way, slashing an eye-popping .377/.467/.556 in the Carolina League before a promotion to Double-A. At the plate, McKenna’s game is centered around contact and speed, setting the table for big boppers while wreaking havoc on the bases. His 70-grade wheels show up on defense, where he’s a lock to remain in CF and plays the position well. McKenna was the biggest riser in this system last season and now looks like a potential everyday player. His speed, defense, and bat-to-ball skill can skill make him a valuable fourth outfielder even if he falls short of that ceiling.
(#6) Keegan Akin, LHP
Ceiling: 50 Risk: High ETA: 2019 Role Description: League Average Starter (#4/#5 SP)
Ht/Wt: 6’0” / 225 lbs. B/T: L/L Highest Level: AA Age (as of April 1, 2019): 24y, 0m
Video #1 | Video #2 | Report
Though he did it fairly quietly, Akin dominated the Eastern League in 2018 en route to being named the circuit’s Pitcher of the Year. Baltimore’s second-rounder from Western Michigan in 2016, Akin would reach the mid-90s as a college junior but pitched at 89-to-92 mph his first year of pro ball. That old velocity returned last year, and his fastball was touching 95-to-96 mph late into starts by season’s end. Akin throws a slider and curve that both grade as average, changing the shape of his breaking ball based on situation and batter handedness. His changeup grades as a playable offering, enough to play as a fourth pitch and keep hitters off balance. We’re bullish on Akin and have been for some time, expecting him to crack Baltimore’s rotation at some point next season. Nothing blows you away, but Akin is a fairly safe prospect that could finish as a reliable back-rotation starter.
(#5) Grayson Rodriguez, RHP
Ceiling: 55 Risk: Extreme ETA: 2022 Role Description: Above-Average Starter (#3 SP)
Ht/Wt: 6’5” / 220 lbs. B/T: R/R Highest Level: R Age (as of April 1, 2019): 19y, 4m
Video | Spotlight #1 | Spotlight #2
Baltimore went the prep arm route in the first round for the second straight draft, surprising some by popping Rodriguez 11th overall in 2018. (#3) DL Hall has turned out to be a great pick so far, and the way Rodriguez threw after signing, he could be on a similar developmental trajectory. A physical 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, his fastball was touching 97 mph in the GCL and sitting comfortably at 92-to-94 mph. Rodriguez’ curveball was a loopy mid-70s bender in high school but tightened into a harder, sharper pitch with just a few months of pro coaching. He’s strong enough to spin a true mid-80s slider that’s distinct from his curve, something not many pitchers this age can do. Rodriguez was working on his changeup during Instructional League, and though it’s his least refined offering, the athleticism and arm-speed are here to develop it further. Rodriguez has the ingredients of a power mid-rotation starter, and we’re excited to see what he does in full-season ball next year.
(#4) Austin Hays, OF
Ceiling: 50 Risk: Moderate ETA: 2018 Role Description: Everyday Player
Ht/Wt: 6’1” / 195 lbs. B/T: R/R Highest Level: MLB Age (as of April 1, 2019): 23y, 8m
Video | Report
Hays is coming off a forgettable 2018, struggling in the early goings before missing time with an ankle injury. He slashed .273/.291/.535 upon returning to Bowie in early August, showing lots of power but the same over-aggressive approach versus spin that has been his Achilles heel in years past. It was curious that the O’s even sent him to Double-A at all, as Hays finished the 2017 season in the big league lineup. We see Hays as a well-rounded player who doesn’t have any gaping holes, even if no one tool is a true plus. He’s a high-floor prospect with a good chance to finish an everyday corner outfielder.
(#3) DL Hall, LHP
Ceiling: 55 Risk: High ETA: 2021 Role Description: Above-Average Starter (#3 SP)
Ht/Wt: 6’0” / 180 lbs. B/T: L/L Highest Level: A Age (as of April 1, 2019): 20y, 6m
Video #1 | Video #2 | Video #3 | Report
Baltimore’s first-rounder in 2017 from a Georgia high school, Hall’s first pro season last year went as well as the team could have hoped for. The lefty pitched to a 2.10 ERA in the South Atlantic League, holding opponents to a paltry .198 average-against while posting encouraging peripherals. Hall isn’t the tallest, but his mix of three above-average pitches with polished control gives him the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the system. The fastball touches 96-to-97 mph and sits comfortably in the mid-90s, backed up by a sharp curve and developing changeup that got more use late in the season. Hall has the talent to rank first on this list as he gets closer to the big leagues, perhaps as soon as mid-season.
(#2) Ryan Mountcastle, 3B
Ceiling: 55 Risk: High ETA: 2019 Role Description: Above-Average Player
Ht/Wt: 6’3” / 195 lbs. B/T: R/R Highest Level: AA Age (as of April 1, 2019): 22y, 1m
Video #1 | Video #2 | Report
Mountcastle finished 2017 at Double-A and struggled there, so Baltimore sent him back to the level for all of last season. He fared much better his second time through the Eastern League (at only 21-years-old, it’s worth noting), slashing .297/.341/.464 and showing improved defense at the hot corner. Mountcastle’s arm is below-average and will likely always be a 45-at-best tool, so it’s not a lock he stays at 3B despite getting better there. His bat is the calling card, as Mountcastle’s future hit and power outputs both could enter the 55-grade territory and seem likely to finish at least average. That offensive upside could make him an above-average producer if he can stick at 3B. Mountcastle will finish closer to an everyday regular if he moves down the defensive spectrum to LF or 1B, though he still should produce enough at the plate to stay in the lineup either way.
(#1) Yusniel Diaz, OF
Ceiling: 55 Risk: High ETA: 2019 Role Description: Above-Average Player
Ht/Wt: 6’1” / 195 lbs. B/T: R/R Highest Level: AA Age (as of April 1, 2019): 22y, 5m
Video #1 | Video #2 | Spotlight
Diaz was the main prospect returned by the Orioles last summer for Manny Machado. He got off to a fast start in the Texas League and starred in the Futures Game before the trade, struggling down the stretch once he reached Baltimore’s Double-A affiliate. If he can refine an over-aggressive approach and find more consistency at the plate while sticking in CF, Diaz has the upside of an above-average regular. Defensively, he’s capable of playing an average CF but isn’t a slam dunk to remain at the position. A move down the defensive spectrum would likely mean Diaz tops out a FV 50 type, but we see him as a player destined to play a long time in the big leagues either way.
A native of Washington, D.C., Adam will be periodically contributing scouting pieces on Orioles prospects for Baltimore Sports and Life. Currently, he’s the Assistant Director of Professional Evaluation at 2080 Baseball. Previously, Adam worked in the Baseball Operations departments of the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers after serving as a Senior Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus. You can follow him on Twitter: @2080adam. Adam can be reached at amcinturff@2080baseball.com for all podcast and media requests.