Baltimore Orioles: July 2019 Top Prospects 15-1

Last week we looked at the Baltimore Orioles Top Prospects #s 30-16.

Today we provide our ranking of prospects 15-1.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

(#15) DJ Stewart, OF

Grade: 40        Risk: High        ETA: 2018
Ht/Wt: 6’0” / 230 lbs.          B/T: L / R         Highest Level: MLB     Age (as of July 31, 2019): 25y, 8m
Video

Stewart’s prospect value is tied to his floor more than ceiling at this point, but he’s a ready-now player with an array of skills that could contribute in a part-time role. The dimensions of Camden Yards likely aid his defensive versatility and should allow him to move interchangeably between outfield corners. He has worked hard to develop other parts of his game, able to swipe a bag on the strength of instincts and jumps. Stewart didn’t hit much in his short big league stint this year, but was performing in Triple-A before going down with a right ankle sprain. He recently rejoined Norfolk and will likely see Baltimore again in 2019, fitting as a viable 4^th/5^th outfielder. The O’s have a host of young outfield options to choose from in the next few years, so Stewart will benefit greatly from a strong performance at the plate in his next tour of big league duty.

(#14) Hunter Harvey, RHP

Grade: 45        Risk: Extreme        ETA: 2019
Ht/Wt: 6’3” / 175 lbs.          B/T: R / R         Highest Level: AAA     Age (as of July 31, 2019): 25y, 5m
Video | Scouting Report

Those familiar with the Orioles’ system likely know Harvey’s backstory. The 22^nd overall pick in 2013 from the prep ranks, he has shown flashes of brilliance at times but hasn’t been able to stay on the field consistently. He has a long list of past injuries, and though Harvey worked from the rotation—even as recently as early this season—he has since been moved to the bullpen. His fastball reaches the high-90s in short stints, backed by a power mid-80s curveball that shows above-average potential. Harvey’s changeup is fringy in a starting role, but works as a solid wrinkle when he only has to face lineups once. Placing Harvey 14^th on this list is optimistic considering his injury history, but he has the stuff to pitch leverage innings if he takes to relief.

(#13) Adam Hall, SS

Grade: 45        Risk: Extreme        ETA: 2022
Ht/Wt: 6’0” / 170 lbs.          B/T: R / R         Highest Level: A      Age (as of July 31, 2019): 20y, 2m
Video | Spotlight

The 60^th overall pick in 2017 from a Canadian high school, Hall barely played after signing in order to add strength and acclimate to professional baseball. That seems to have paid off, as he went from being questionably ready to hit coming out of high school to slashing .298/.368/.374 just a year later in the New York-Penn League. He has taken another step forward at the plate in 2019, named to the South Atlantic League all-star team after hitting .321 and swiping 16 bases for Delmarva in the first half. The carry tool here is speed, as the 20-year-old routinely posts top-of-the-scale run times and can get up the line in 4.0 seconds or less. Hall had a fringy arm entering pro ball that has gotten stronger in subsequent years, giving him a better chance to stick at shortstop. He likely won’t ever hit for much power, but double-plus speed plays up his hit tool and compensates for other holes in his game. Hall’s best-case upside is a low-end regular if he’s enough of a hit/on-base threat, with the wheels and potential defensive versatility to help off the bench if his bat falls short of everyday production. This is the exact type of hitting prospect that has been helped by the “juiced ball” era.

(#12) Dean Kremer, RHP

Grade: 45        Risk: High        ETA: 2020
Ht/Wt: 6’3” / 180 lbs.          B/T: R / R         Highest Level: AA    Age (as of July 31, 2019): 23y, 6m
Video | Scouting Report

Kremer was one of the prospects acquired from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado deal. The former 16^th round pick from UNLV has been a consistent performer throughout the minors, posting big strikeout numbers despite fringy-to-average velocity. His lively heater plays above its velocity, getting on hitters quickly and inducing more bad swings than most 45/50-grade fastballs. Kremer throws four pitches for strikes and has cut down his walk rate in 2019, backing a 89-to-93 mph fastball with a sharp spike curveball (73-to-76 mph), slider (84-to-88 mph) and changeup (82-to-84 mph). The curve has looked like his best off-speed this year, keeping hitters off balance due to its slow, loopy depth. He adds and subtracts from his slider, able to make it more of a cut-like pitch when thrown harder. Kremer will need to develop a more consistent changeup to work back through big league lineups. His ceiling is a true back-of-the-rotation arm, though fringy arsenal depth and in-zone command could make him more of a swingman/spot-starter type on a contending staff. Kremer is a high-floor prospect that looks like a safe big league contributor in some capacity.

(#11) Michael Baumann, RHP

Grade: 45        Risk: High        ETA: 2020
Ht/Wt: 6’4” / 225 lbs.          B/T: R / R         Highest Level: AA     Age (as of July 31, 2019): 23y, 10m
Video | Scouting Report

Baltimore’s third-rounder in 2017 from the University of Jacksonville, Baumann showed a power fastball/slider mix in college but saw his stuff back up as he tired under the every-fifth-day grind during his first full pro season. His stuff has ticked back up in 2019, and as a result, he’s one of the biggest prospect risers in the system this year. His fastball touches 97 mph and sits consistently in the mid-90s, backed by a hard slider in the upper-80s that flashes solid action. Baumann’s arsenal depth has improved, having made gains with a mid-80s changeup and able to wrinkle a true curveball for another look. His control grades ahead of his command, often leaving pitches elevated and relying on velocity to do the work. If Baumann can continue on the upward trajectory he has been on in 2019, the ceiling is a hard-throwing backend starter. His power two-pitch mix could make him an interesting bullpen candidate in the event it doesn’t fully click in the rotation. The Orioles won’t have to add him to the 40-Man Roster until after the 2020 season for Rule 5 purposes, though Baumann has a chance to surface in the big leagues before that time.

(#10) Ryan McKenna, OF

Grade: 45        Risk: High        ETA: 2020
Ht/Wt: 5’11” / 185 lbs.          B/T: R / R         Highest Level: AA       Age (as of July 31, 2019): 22y, 5m
Video #1 | Video #2 | Scouting Report

McKenna’s breakout 2018 season put him within the organization’s top 10 prospects. He tore up the Carolina League before a mid-season promotion to Double-A, playing well in the Arizona Fall League after the season. Though his bat hasn’t shown quite the same life back with Bowie this year, McKenna’s underlying numbers leave room for optimism. He’s still walking and stealing bases at an above-average rate while putting lots more contact in the air. The 22-year-old is on pace for career highs in home runs and RBIs, grades as a plus defensive outfielder, and increasingly draws more confident reviews from scouts regarding his long term hitting ability. Once thought of as a bench ceiling type of player for reasons of defense and speed, McKenna’s offensive gains now give the upside of a low-end everyday outfielder or solid role player. He will be Rule 5 eligible after this season and seems like a safe bet to make the 40-Man Roster despite Baltimore’s surplus of young outfielders.

(#9) Keegan Akin, LHP

Grade: 45        Risk: High        ETA: 2019
Ht/Wt: 6’0” / 225 lbs.          B/T: L / L         Highest Level: AAA         Age (as of July 31, 2019): 24y, 4m
Video | Scouting Report

Baltimore took college pitchers with their first three picks in 2016, and Akin seems likely to wind up the best of that bunch. He has progressed steadily through the system the last three years, quietly being named the Eastern League’s Pitcher of the Year in 2018 after an outstanding season with Bowie. Akin’s struggles managing contact and inducing ground balls have made the hitter-friendly conditions of Triple-A a bit harder for him this year, but the long term ceiling seems the same. No one pitch overpowers, but three 45/50-grade offerings with feel to pitch give Akin the upside of a sturdy back-of-the-rotation starter. He’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft for the first time after 2019 and seems like a likely add to the 40-Man Roster.

(#8) Gunnar Henderson, SS/3B

Grade: 50        Risk: Extreme        ETA: 2023
Ht/Wt: 6’3” / 195 lbs.          B/T: L / R         Highest Level: R       Age (as of July 31, 2019): 18y, 1m
Video #1 | Video #2 | Spotlight

The 42^nd overall pick in this year’s draft, Henderson was seen as a late first round talent. At 6-foot-3 and 195 pounds, his frame likely will ultimately force a move from a center-diamond spot but has ideal features for the hot corner. Henderson posts impressive exit velocity numbers because of his quick, strong cut through the zone. The present hard contact and remaining room to get stronger all bode well for the development of his power with added swing lift. Henderson could live to get a bit looser in his hitting base and avoid drifting to his front foot, but those are both small mechanical tweaks. All teenage hitters require projection at the plate, and the tools are here to develop into a potential above-average hit and power producer. The best-case ceiling is a solid big league regular with prototype offensive tools for the left side of the infield. Already one of Baltimore’s better prospects, he’ll move into the organization’s uppermost tier with a strong first full season in Delmarva next year.

(#7) Zac Lowther, LHP

Grade: 45        Risk: High        ETA: 2020
Ht/Wt: 6’2” / 235 lbs.          B/T: L / L         Highest Level: AA         Age (as of July 31, 2019): 23y, 3m
Video #1 | Video #2 | Scouting Report

The 74^th overall pick just two years ago, Lowther has had nothing but success since turning pro and reached Double-A quickly. He was named to the Eastern League All-Star Game this year and has anchored Bowie’s rotation in 2019. Lowther relies on craft more than power stuff, though the above-average life on his fastball allows it to play above its 88-to-91 mph velocity. Both his curveball and changeup project as solid-average offerings, and though Lowther’s walk rate has ticked up a bit this year, he keeps everything around the plate and seems capable of cutting down on the free passes. can cut down on the free passes. There’s a ton of deception in his delivery, staying very closed and showing the ball late—especially to lefties. Another one of Baltimore’s high-floor, upper-level pitching prospects, Lowther likely tops out as a backend the starter but looks like a safe bet to be a big league contributor in some capacity.

(#6) Austin Hays, OF

Grade: 45        Risk: Moderate        ETA: 2017
Ht/Wt: 6’1” / 195 lbs.          B/T: R / R         Highest Level: MLB       Age (as of July 31, 2019): 24y, 0m
Video

Hays has taken an odd pathway to this spot on the list. He catapulted into the upper-third of some overall top prospect lists after an incredible first full pro season in 2017, culminating in a big league cup of coffee late in the year. Holes in his offensive game were exposed in 2018, and injuries have held Hays back in the time since. Frustratingly, a sprained left thumb at the end of spring training this year delayed his start to 2019. He has rehabbed at a few levels this season and returned to Norfolk’s lineup earlier this month. Hays might not finish the middle of the lineup presence some hoped after his signature season, but the offensive upside is here to hold down a corner outfield spot in the big leagues if he’s able to stay healthy.

(#5) Yusniel Diaz, OF

Grade: 50        Risk: High        ETA: 2020
Ht/Wt: 6’1” / 195 lbs.          B/T: R / R         Highest Level: AA       Age (as of July 31, 2019): 22y, 9m
Video #1 | Video #2 | Spotlight

The headline prospect returned for Manny Machado in 2018, Diaz struggled mightily with Bowie after the trade and got off to a slow start this year, too. July was easily his best month in the O’s system, hitting above .300 with three homers and an OPS north of .900. Mechanical inconsistency was reportedly somewhat behind his early struggles, and Diaz has settled back into the setup he used prior to this season. The hitting tools are here for solid average and power—aided a bit by the hitter-friendly dimensions of Camden Yards—which gives Diaz the upside of an everyday big leaguer. There was some thought he could play CF when he first came over from the Dodgers, though he has since basically moved full-time to an outfield corner in the time since. That likely caps his ceiling to more of a solid regular than true above-average producer, though Diaz has good defensive tools for RF and grades out as an above-average defender there. He’ll have a chance to prove he’s a long term building block for the O’s moving forward, likely getting his first taste of the big leagues at some point in 2020.

(#4) Ryan Mountcastle, 1B

Grade: 50        Risk: High        ETA: 2019
Ht/Wt: 6’3” / 195 lbs.          B/T: R / R         Highest Level: AAA       Age (as of July 31, 2019): 22y, 5m
Video

Mountcastle has spent most of his time at 1B this season in Triple-A, occasionally sliding back over to the hot corner and even getting reps in the outfield. It’s clear he will be deployed at some corner spot, though calling him a true 1B-only right now seems premature. There’s pressure on his bat given the defensive profile, but Mountcastle has the hitting tools to potentially be an everyday player regardless. He has shown advanced feel for the barrel this year, producing average and power despite a very low walk rate against older International League competition. Mountcastle has never walked much, which could wind up being problematic as a bat-first player given his reliance on strong contact and BABIP. Rule 5 eligible for the first time after this season, he’s a lock to crack the 40-Man Roster and should reach the big leagues by next season, if not sooner.

(#3) DL Hall, LHP

Grade: 55        Risk: Extreme        ETA: 2021
Ht/Wt: 6’2” / 185 lbs.          B/T: L / L         Highest Level: A+      Age (as of July 31, 2019): 20y, 10m
Video | Spotlight

The 21^st overall pick in 2017, Hall established himself as one of the better young arms in the low minors with his performance in Delmarva last season. His stuff has only gotten better this year in High-A, though there’s been a concerning spike in free passes as well. Hall has plus velocity—especially for a lefty—sitting comfortably in the mid-90s and reaching up to 97 mph in his Futures Game outing this year. Hall’s curveball plays like a swing-and-miss pitch at best right now, and a much improved changeup also flashes swing-and-miss action at times.  He has the upside of an impactful lefty rotation piece, but the way his control and command have backed up makes that ceiling less of a sure thing. This type of stuff from the left side is rare, and Hall is still just 20-years-old. There’s reason to hope his wildness this year is a blip and he’s young enough to make adjustments.

(#2) Grayson Rodriguez, RHP

Grade: 55        Risk: Extreme        ETA: 2022
Ht/Wt: 6’5” / 225 lbs.          B/T: R / R         Highest Level: A         Age (as of July 31, 2019): 19y, 8m
Video | Report

Rodriguez was a surprise at 11^th overall in 2018, but has done nothing but validate where the Orioles selected him in the time since. He has emerged as the top pitching prospect in the organization as a 19-year-old, named to the Futures Game and tearing through the South Atlantic League in his first full pro season. His heavy fastball sits in the mid-90s and touches 97-98 mph at best, though command of the pitch within the zone is still inconsistent. A choppy, short-striding delivery makes it hard to place the heater in the lower-third right now, though there’s time to project on his location ironing out. Rodriguez has advanced feel for two distinct breaking pitches at an early age, showing both a curveball (74-to-78 mph) and slider (81-to-85 mph) that flash above-average action. His low-80s changeup has come a long way in a short time, looking like at least an average future pitch with plenty of separation and flashes of corkscrewing action down and away from lefties. Rodriguez looks every bit a potential future frontline starter when he’s on, though like all teenage arms, he’ll push through age appropriate bouts of wildness and inconsistency at times. The frame, stuff, and mound presence are all here to dream on a future impactful #2/#3 rotation piece.

(#1) Adley Rutschman, C

Grade: 60        Risk: High        ETA: 2021
Ht/Wt: 6’2” / 216 lbs.          B/T: S / R         Highest Level: SS-A      Age (as of July 31, 2019): 21y, 5m
Video #1 | Video #2 | Video #3

Rutschman became the new face of Baltimore’s rebuild the second he was picked at the top of the 2019 Draft—and arguably before that, as he was the first wire-to-wire consensus 1/1 pick since early this decade. The scouting reports on him read like hyperbole, but Rutschman’s mix of track record, tools on both sides of the ball, and outstanding intangibles are just that special. He’s an advanced defender that grades plus with both his arm and glove, with offensive tools to be a valuable producer at the plate. Rutschman is the rare prospect who faces more questions about how he’ll handle the immense pressure of carrying the hopes of an organization more than any on-field attribute, though how his bat holds up under the rigors of catching is also worth following long term. He’s a FV 60 prospect immediately upon entering pro ball and could develop into a regular all-star talent. Though he’s talented enough to force his hand, Baltimore has no reason to rush him to the big leagues. Given the many nuances of his position, it’s more realistic to expect Rutschman to make his big league debut in 2021.