O’s Q&A with Jason Parks, Baseball Prospectus

With the calendar turned to 2012, Baltimore Sports and Life has reached out to Jason Parks for his thoughts on the O’s.

You can find Parks’work with Baseball Prospectus at:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/jason_parks/

You can find Parks on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/#!/ProfessorParks

Baltimore Sports and Life thanks Mr. Parks for taking the time to answer a few questions.

Baltimore Sports and Life: “I have been pleased by the organizational moves Dan Duquette has made since being introduced to the Baltimore media November 8th. The departed Amateur Scouting Director Joe Jordan has been replaced by Gary Rajsich (formerly the National Cross-checker for Toronto). Under Rajsich, the existing Professional Scouts have been resigned to the Amateur side, and the O’s will rely more video and statistical analysis while evaluating players on other teams. Boston’s Southeast Cross-checker Danny Haas has been hired as the National Cross-checker for Baltimore.

Fred Ferreira has come on-board as the Executive Director of International Recruiting. Ferreira has helped bring in 10 new international scouts, working in the Dominican, Venezuela, Curacao, Guatemala, Holland, and Costa Rica. The O’s are actually looking into adding a Venezuelan academy. Former Phillies General Manager Lee Thomas has been added as an assistant to Duquette. What are you impressions of the Duquette hire, and the staff he has assembled?”

Parks: “First of all, I think Duquette is one of the smartest people in the game of baseball. Has he always made the best decisions? Probably not. But as pure intelligence goes, you can’t ask for a smarter human. I wanted to see the O’s go for a more out-of-the-box type; someone without as many skins on the wall with the hunger to turn the franchise around. Not that Duquette lacks all of these qualities; rather, bringing in a fresh face like an Oppenheimer or a Coppolella would have energized the process a bit more. As for the staff, I think the organization has gotten better in that regard. Bringing in Ferreira and Haas look to be very astute moves. They are highly respected in the field and were good hires.

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The O’s likely 2012 roster could* currently resemble something like:

Guthrie, Britton, Arrieta, Matusz, Wada
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Hunter, Simon, Bergesen or Tillman, Patton or Eveland

Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Reynolds 3rd / 1st
Wieters C
Davis 1st / 3rd
Reimold LF
DH
Andino 2nd

Roberts, Teagarden, Antonelli or Flaherty, Chavez

*The O’s seem to prefer Davis at 3rd, and and Reynolds at 1st. I prefer the opposite. My guess is that the O’s will likely have Bergesen, Tillman, and maybe Matusz starting for AAA Norfolk to begin the year. That would mean that other pitchers on the 40 man like Darren O’Day, Rapada, Zach Phillips, and VandenHurk would be competing for spots in the Baltimore pen. My preference would be the staff above.

If you combine Duquette’s comments on the record, with what he has insinuated; the following statements are true:
1) The O’s payroll will remain stagnant at roughly $85M.
2) The O’s want to improve to above .500 in 2012.
3) The O’s do not intend to deal Jones, Hardy, or Wieters.

It is unlikely that Markakis will be moved, and also unlikely that Guthrie will be moved prior to the non-waiver deadline next year. Duquette is taking over a team which has had not had a winning season since 1997. He also takes over a team which has not even won 70+ games since 2006. Yet, it would also be unfair to say he inherits a total reclamation project either. There is enough talent on the Major League roster, that heading into the 2011 season the averaged predicted win total from 19 different analysts was 78. Even if 81 wins is plausible for this coming year, should that be a organizational ‘goal’? Meaning if the team can not contend in ’12, or ’13, should the focus be a deeper rebuilding now, even at the potential expense of wins in ’12?”

Parks: “This is clearly a very detailed question with multiple angles and avenues, so I’ll just be very blunt. The O’s are not going to be a very good team in ’12 and I think they will be looking up at .500 when the bell rings. They have a few choices: 1) Rebuild from the bottom up. As it stands now, the O’s system is very thin outside of blue-chippers Machado and Bundy, and you can’t guarantee that those two will change the fortune of the franchise. The team needs to get more active in Latin America and they need hit on more rule four selections in order to have sustainable and cost-controlled success at the major league level. 2) The current 25 roster isn’t without talent, but it would require several additions in order to compete in the East, and most of those pieces are already off the market. The O’s can stand pat in ’12 and try to compete in a division where both the Rays and Jays are superior teams, both at the major league level, the farm level, and the front office level…..or, they could blow it up and take a page from the Jays and Rays and build a deep farm that can augment talent on the 25. I’m afraid waiting another season just delays the inevitable. Blow it up and build it back.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In a Baseball America poll (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/best-tools/2011/2612213.html) of Major League Managers, Adam Jones was ranked as the 2nd best defensive CF in the American League. On the other-side you have the most advanced defensive metrics which state Jones is a below average CF. I tend to believe that the truth lies between those two extremes. Jones currently has a Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) of .338, and his Isolated Power (ISO) is .182. For the 2nd consecutive year, he played in 149+ games. For the 3rd consecutive year his OPS fell within the range of .767 to .792. He finished with 25 homers, and 26 doubles. Jones is a Free Agent after the 2013 season. By Opening Day 2012, do you think the O’s need to have either extended him or traded him? If you would like to see him extended, what type of contract do you think would be fair? If he were to be traded, he has to bring back players who can be under long-term team control. What type of trade could you see as fair?”

Parks: “I actually like Jones quite a bit, but if you believe in building the team back up, he is a piece that would have value on the market and could help start the process of re-stocking the farm. I can think of several teams that would have interest in Jones and be willing to drop a few prospects to land him.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “During this past 2011 season, Showalter met regularly with Majority Owner Peter Angelos. Showalter has enough influence within the organization, that he was part of the interview committee with the prospective GM candidates. Presumably, Duquette and Showalter are currently on the same page. However, if it becomes apparent that Duquette, and Showalter have differing philosophies of how the organization should be built (both in the immediate, and long-term) do you agree that Showalter’s opinions should be considered, but that the Manager reports to the GM; and thus the GM should have autonomy to make the moves they desire? If the O’s are going to listen to Showalter first, should he have been the one named the GM?”

Parks: “I’m not the biggest fan of Buck Showalter and I don’t think his philosophies should interfere with the direction Duquette wants to take the team. Not that Buck can’t manage the men on the field; I believe he can. But I think Buck likes to fancy himself a General Manager at times, and I think allowing him an audible voice in that regard is a mistake. Buck should manage the team and leave the front-office dealings to the front-office. The O’s will never win with a manager who has his focus on another arena of the game.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “If the O’s are ever going to be competitive in the near term, their young pitching has to produce. Matusz was extremely strong over his last 10 starts of 2010, and abysmal over his 12 outings in 2011. Like Jones’s defense, I think the truth about Matusz is probably somewhere in the middle, but he absolutely needs to earn his spot next Spring.

In 2011, Arrieta saw improvement in his K/9, Line Drive %, Ground Ball %, and First Strike % numbers. With the removed bone spur not directly at the elbow (and with him having surgery when he did), there seems to be confidence in his ability to have a normal throwing program this Winter. Obviously 21 homers in 119.1 ip is too much, and his fastball command has to increase.

There was been a lot to like about Britton’s rookie season, especially with how he responded to the adversity of July. Overall he finished 11-11, with a 4.61 era. In his 154.1 ip, he allowed 162 hits, 12 homers, 62 bb’s, with 97 k’s. His OPS against was .735, and he had a G/F ratio of 1.24. Like Arrieta, his fastball command needs to improve. What are your current thoughts on these three?”

Parks: “I don’t think the pitching is bad; I just don’t think they are great. I think Britton is going to be fine; overcoming and adjusting to failure is paramount to player development. Matusz isn’t the ace some people thought, but he will be a serviceable starter with some good highs and the occasional low. Arrieta is an arm that might be better suited to the ‘pen; although if the fastball command can improve, he can become a consistent rotation arm, but he needs to keep the ball down and he needs to improve his sequencing to keep hitters off the fastball.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Wieters finished with 50xbh’s (.450 Slugging) and was lauded as one of the best defensive catchers in the game. If you were starting a team – which catchers do you take before him?”

Parks: “I’ve always been a big fan of Wieters, even when he was struggling when he first reached the majors. He made the necessary adjustments and that is the name of the game. If I were starting a team, Wieters would be among the few catchers I would consider. He’s a player to build around.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The O’s sent a contingent (including Showalter, and Ferreira) to the Dominican recently to scout Yoenis Cespedes. It appears that Baltimore would have to pay an ‘O’s tax’ to obtain the 26 yr old OF. Would you advocate Baltimore being willing to offer 6 years $60M for Cespedes. Would you think that contract would be what it would take for the O’s to sign him?”

Parks: “The O’s only have a few Latin American players on the 40-man roster, so it seems unlikely that Cespedes would consider signing with a team where his acclimation to professional ball would be made even harder by the lack of LA players in the clubhouse and on the field. It brings up a much larger question, in my opinion: Why don’t the O’s have Latin American talent on the roster?”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal labeled (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/MLB-deal-unfair-to-small-market-teams-112211) the new CBA a dagger to small market teams. Do you agree with that assessment?”

Parks: “It’s too early to tell. Smart teams will find ways to manipulate the system for their own benefit. It comes down to organizational intelligence. Some teams have it and some teams lack it.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “With that CBA providing a $2.9M international cap on each team for the ’12-’13 signing period (beginning July 2nd), will Jorge Soler get a contract in excess of $15M from someone?”

Parks: “I’m not sure. I know of five teams that have scouted and love the kid.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “What would you like to see the O’s accomplish between now and the start of Spring Training?”

Parks: “I’d like to see a plan in place that will give the fans some belief in the people making the process. The team needs more talent, both at the minor league level and at the major league level. It’s quite odd that the O’s have a 40-man roster almost completely void of Latin American talent, and a pipeline that is thin in that regard. They need to improve in that market in order to compete in the toughest division in baseball. I think fans would understand a rebuild if the front office can show that they are committed to the process. Blow it up, build it up, and set in motion a team that is talented and sustainable. Honestly, I don’t see that happening, and as a result, I don’t see the O’s being a force any time in the near future.”

Note from Baltimore Sports and Life: You can discuss Mr. Parks’ comments at the BSL Message Board (https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/forum).