Thoughts On Two Different Quotes From Mike Elias

In the book Astroball, Baltimore Orioles General Manager Mike Elias (then with the Astros) was quoted as saying, “I don’t think we have any special insights or special knowledge, or that we’re smarter than anyone else.”  Today, after the trade of Dylan Bundy to the LA Angels, he was quoted as saying, “I want to see a playoff team at Camden Yards and there’s only one way to get there.”

I loved the Elias hire, and I believe he is going to be successful. Not because he’s a genius, but because he has a plan, and he’s going systematically work that plan. He’s going to make decisions based not on the gut, but on logic and probability. Not every decision will be the correct one, but make enough quality decisions, and you’ll get where you want to go.

While I continue to believe in Elias and the ultimate results he is going to have at the helm of the Orioles; it’s the height of both arrogance and absurdity for him to to assert there is only one true path.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Elias’ plan is going to work, and it won’t be magical when it does. It will be the cumulative result of sound decisions over time.

I think it’s completely possible that when the 2023 season ends, we see pictures of Elias celebrating a championship by popping bottles in the Orioles clubhouse. If that happens, the idea that that there was only way to have arrived at that point will still be ridiculous.

There are always multiple ways to operate.
Being flexible and adaptable is a strength, not a weakness. 

Let’s be direct. I’m annoyed by the decision making so-far this Winter.

I get what the O’s are doing, and I’m not going to argue that it’s wrong.
I don’t think it’s ‘wrong.’  I do think it’s ultimately going to payoff.

But don’t tell me this path is the only path.

After watching the Orioles lose 115 games in 2018 (not under Elias), and lose 102 more in 2019; damn right I was ready to see the O’s improve in 2020.

The ask wasn’t for the Orioles to make moves that would inhibit the growth or opportunities of existing internal talent.

Nobody was asking for or expecting additions at the top of the Free Agent market.

What I was hoping to see was a number of strategic 1-2 year deals with players who could make the 2020 product better, and potentially later be flipped themselves.

I would have liked to have had Villar back.

I don’t care that the O’s can’t contend in ’20. I don’t care that he (unless he had been extended) was not going to be part of your future. He was an asset you had the ability to control this coming year. You could have brought him back now on the +/- $10M he would be due, and potentially trade him for a larger return then you got from the Marlins.

The opposing argument was, “Why pay anything for the guy, when his production won’t change your end results in ’20? That money can be reinvested elsewhere within the organization.”  It feels like a stretch to me that the O’s are going to invest Villar’s would-be salary into Analytics, Player Development, Scouting, etc.  It seems more likely that money will be pocketed by Ownership.  I don’t have a problem with Ownership making money. I don’t have a problem with Ownership not throwing good money after bad. I do have a problem with giving away a controlled commodity, simply because you don’t want to pay – when the overall team payroll has been greatly slashed (and will be cheap for sometime, given the development of a younger, controlled core).

Overall, I’m glad the O’s got something for Villar.

I’m completely fine with the Bundy trade too, in-general.

The caveat being the ’19 Orioles gave 75 combined starts to Wojciechowski, Hess, Brooks, Ynoa, Straily, Eshelman, Yacabonis, and Wright.

Rebuild or not, that was brutal. In Year 2 of the rebuild, that should be unacceptable.
Do better.

It’s not like Bundy isn’t replaceable (he’s a 5th starter on a good team), but you could count on him to take the ball every 5th day and look like a legitimate ML starter more often then those named above.

For Villar, and Bundy the O’s got back 5 arms under long-term team control. 3 of them drafted in 2019. The O’s Scouts liked these guys? Great. Now it’s up to Player Development to get something out of them. Overall everyone gets the point. These 5 arms might be nothing, but you’ve obtained potential, you’ve obtained control, you’ve added depth to your system.

Nobody is going to argue against the merits of that.

My irritation with the decision making so-far this Winter is that the O’s are are essentially saying that on-field improvement in 2020 isn’t necessary.

That’s disappointing. It’s also a choice.

The O’s are choosing to not put a better product on the field.
That’s one path. Maybe by doing so, the O’s add another high draft pick at the top of the 2021 Draft.

You could absolutely continue to add young controlled talent to the organization, gain further payroll flexibility, give young existing talent opportunities; while also being committed to putting a better product on the field next year.

You could continue to invest in Player Development, Scouting, finally doing something Internationally, and Analytics – while simultaneously putting out a legitimate Major League product on the field.

Being ‘better’ in 2020, and building for the future don’t have to be mutually exclusive points.
It’s a choice.

There are no moves the Orioles could make this off-season which would allow the O’s to contend in 2020. And that’s fine. We all understand building is a process. However, there are moves that could be made this Winter, which would improve the current product without impeding development opportunities with the existing internal talent. i.e. 1 or 2 years deals for players who would not be blocking internal options. (Some examples here.)

IMO, Elias can rightfully argue his plan will eventually pay off and work. But it’s too much for him to say there is only one way to get there.

Some other Orioles Thoughts:

– While I wanted to see Villar back for ’20, I’ve not been opposed to moving Mancini. Not trading him to just to trade him, but without him; it’s plausible you could have a June 1st roster with Diaz in RF (obviously Diaz has to go to AAA, show his legs are healthy and produce), Mountcastle at 1st, and Stewart at DH.  If the O’s are going to make no effort to improve the 2020 product, then any justification in keeping Mancini is further reduced.

– ESPN Analyst Keith Law was recently quoted as saying he doesn’t think Hays has any shot of being a decent everyday CF. In his limited September run, we saw this, and this, and this from Hays. He had a strong ’17 MiL season, earning an initial trip to the Majors. The stories of ’18, and most of ’19 were nagging injuries and under-performance for Hays. In ’20, I’m mainly looking to see him stay in the lineup, and see how he adjusts month-to-month. I fully believe he’s a very capable CF.

–  Despite a miserable September, Former Rule 5 selection Anthony Santander had a productive 2019 season, particularly vs. LHP.  I’m looking forward to seeing him over extended time in ’20, and really seeing what the O’s have there.

– While the O’s wait for the eventual arrivals (some-point in 2021?) for Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall; the O’s have a group of arms (Akin, Kremer, Wells, Zimmerman, Lowther, Baumann) who could all see ML time in 2020. Akin and Kremer look like they have a chance to be back-end starters. Wells and Zimmerman have been productive at their respective stops.  Lowther and Baumann may also be back-end types, but there is some upside there. Personally, it’s Kremer I’m most looking forward to seeing in Baltimore. Hopefully he gets off to good start at Norfolk, and is a potential option for the Orioles by June. Without additions, his time might come sooner.

– One of the things I’ll enjoy watching in ’20 is the bullpen. Of particularly interest to me is the quartet of Harvey, Tate, Scott, and Kline.  (Kline might begin ’20 at AAA, but I do believe in the talent.) Throw-in arms like Phillips, Carroll… possibly Pop late Summer, and there are some arms that could be fun to watch. More so if the rotation in-front of them could go from legendarily horrific to just below average. Harvey is kind of an easy choice of the young ‘pen arm to watch… a close second for me is Scott.

– I’m interested to see what happens at the hot-corner. Can Nunez play a passable 3rd base? Can Ruiz make a leap with the bat? (.766 OPS post AS Break.)

– The future at Catcher (likely at some point in ’21) is obviously Rutchsman. Until he debuts, the O’s have two interesting current options in Severino and Sisco. How will their playing time being divided in ’20? When Spring Training comes, should we expect to see Sisco wearing multiple gloves?

– Who has the better chance of replicating their 2019 success – Means or Alberto?

– Who is going to be the Orioles SS? You can find discussion on our board regarding Addison Russell here.