Ravens Roundtable: Wrap it up, Moving on

This week, BSL’s Gabe Ferguson, Mike Randall, and Jordon Kough put a far too early bow on the Ravens 2019 season, and then start looking to the future. Discuss you thoughts on our topics from this roundtable discussion on our message board.

Guys. What happened?

Gabe Ferguson: Honestly, it’s a combination of things. The short answer – everything that could go wrong, did go wrong. Losing the turnover battle 3-0 plus two failed 4th & 1 conversions that were automatic all year is hard to overcome.

I do think preparation was an issue. The Titans had a clear plan on defense on how to slow down the Ravens offense, and the Ravens played into their hands instead of setting the tone. The Ravens seemed to come into the game with the mindset of “this is what we do, and we aren’t going to make any major adjustments against this opponent”. When they got down, the play-calling on offense was questionable. Injuries to Boyle and Ingram certainly compounded the issue, but completely abandoning the running game turned out to be a very poor decision.

Mike Randall: So much has been made of the debacle that I think I’ll sum it up pretty quickly. The Ravens had drives that ended on the Titans side of the field, in scoring range, eight times. They came away with 12 points. Poorly timed turnovers, poor execution in short yardage. All season long the Ravens got to dictate the game flow. They were not able to that night. They were taken out of their comfort zone and didn’t finish drives. Not converting the fourth downs made it basically -5 in the turnover department. Can’t win that way against anyone.

Jordan Kough: I think part of it was rust, this team just didn’t look like it played a clean game. Miscommunications on the LOS (and not great play), drops, missed tackles. But also, I don’t think Andrews and Ingram were healthy. But none of that, IMO, were the things that beat us.

It was coaching. If you want to be a team that plays to your roots, play to your roots. Run the ball, use motion, use read option. Do all the same things you did all year long. I kept saying to Gabe via text and the person I was watching the game with, who is this team? Where is the play action? Where is the motion? Where are they trying to isolate what Tennessee is doing?

The regular season 4th downs were set up by wearing down the other teams in the trenches. So was the success on the OL. Beat the other guys up, get them on their heels, break their backs with a few big Lamar plays, and make big catches in big moments because coverage isn’t tight because of the run game. That paragraph was a familiar formula for the last 12 weeks of the regular season. And yet none of that was on display in the playoffs.

How much stock do you put into being rusty? Players won’t admit it. Harbaugh admitted that they didn’t play their sharpest game and we could theorize what we wanted to about that. We just saw LSU go 21 days between the SEC title games and walloping Oklahoma, 63-28. Then another 16 days before winning the National Title over Clemson 42-25. Joe Burrow dominated his league in a similar way that Lamar Jackson had his. Rust? Is it avoidable? Is it made up? What if they go 14-2 again, secure the top seed with games still to play? Worried?

GF: I think rust is one of those things that pundits like to point to in hindsight, but the reality is the Ravens just didn’t execute. Can that be attributed to rust? I think it is impossible to quantify. I think injuries played a role. I think the play-calling was questionable. I think the Ravens got beat up at the line of scrimmage. The Titans seemed to have more confidence and they played fearless. The Ravens played like they were scared to lose.

MR: I don’t know about rust. I feel like everyone is sore, tired, after 16+ weeks. The Ravens should have been rejuvenated. The top seed has won the Super Bowl something like five of the last six years. So, I don’t think rust applies. Now, listening all week to talking heads telling you how good you are, and if in your sub conscious you feel like you can breeze through a game because of numbers in front of your team on graphics like “1 vs. 6”, “14-2 vs. 9-7”.  Maybe that can lead to skipping steps in your preparation. Not saying that is what happened, but it can happen.

JK: I think the rust didn’t help and then the jitters happened. Once the team got tight and went away from their identity that’s when they lost control. It’s like, when someone punches you, you revert to what’s natural. For Ravens that’s a heavy dose of the run, zone read, and stretching defenses left to right and going in a direction they didn’t expect. If you ask me, the rust was 100% on the coaching staff. They forgot their roots and it wasn’t like they even did anything that creative. I don’t think I saw a single trick play, unbalanced line, screen pass or true misdirection once the game got away from us.

League wide, coming into the Divisional Round, five of the eight teams left were in the top six rushing teams in the NFL (BAL, SF, TEN, SEA, MIN). Is the passing era that saw inflated numbers in the past decade-plus, a thing of the past? Are teams going to copy what the Ravens are doing, making running backs important again, opting for dual threat QBs over average pocket passers?

GF: I don’t think so. Passing the ball is still a far more effective way to score points in today’s NFL. I think there is something to be said for zigging when everyone else is zagging, but it still requires highly efficient passing in order to win which each of the QBs on those teams provided (All 5 were in the top 7 by NFL passer rating).

MR: The NFL is a copycat league. I fully expect teams to take more chances on dual threat quarterbacks, even as late round fliers if they don’t have first round grades. Slowly running backs have become important again. In 2013 Giovanni Bernard was the first RB taken in the draft…at pick number 37. Le’Veon Bell was pick number 48 in that draft. In 2014 it was Bishop Sankey taken at pick 54! Since then we’ve seen Todd Gurley, Zeke Elliot, Melvin Gordon, Nick Chubb, Saquan Barkley, Christian McCaffrey emerge as early picks that their teams lean on.

Overall you have to play to your team’s strengths. In the Ravens case you have a mobile quarterback (if I’m being modest), two to three capable runners, relay on a trio of tight ends, and have some so-so receivers though Marquise Brown met, or exceeded rookie expectations. It makes sense to run the ball, a lot. There is more than one way to win football games. I don’t think the league will revert to the 1970s standards of throwing the ball though. For example, the Chiefs with Pat Mahomes could throw the ball all day and be just as successful as a team that runs it often in a ball control scheme.

I’ve mentioned in the past regarding quarterbacks that teams should only pay for elite, or draft new ones. Teams that give big contracts to their Andy Dalton types are going to be foolish. If you buy that, then while teams have young QBs that don’t come out white hot (Mahomes, Jackson) they may look to run to run the ball more to take some pressure off them as they develop.

JK: Look, Lamar is Lamar. He’s hard to replicate. And what the Ravens do is going to be hard to replicate without a guy like him.

But yes, teams should be trying to replicate the running success we’ve seen. I think the league is tamping down a bit on the pass happy nature. And passing numbers have been declining quietly the last few years.

I think the move to more mobile QBs who can get out when necessary and do the things you saw from a guy like Tannehill become even more of a priority. For teams that can game plan around a more mobile QB, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more. But in the ultimately hedge, I wouldn’t be surprised to see others fair where the Ravens did not. 

Turning to the offseason. Quick look at the salary cap. Ravens have an estimated $34.6M in space, given a reported increase up to a $200M salary cap in 2020. This will go down as a result of some moves that are a given. Other options include releasing Tony Jefferson saves $7M in cap space. Brandon Carr, which would save $6M in cap space if his $7M option is not exercised. Also, Ronnie Stanley, an extension candidate, could reduce next year’s cap number (currently $12.866M) if the team locks in the All-Pro LT long term. Marhsal Yanda will cost $11M, but should the 35-year-old retire, it saves the Ravens another $7M. Thoughts on these options? Any thoughts on restructuring a players existing deal not mentioned here?

GF: I would cut Jefferson and keep Carr; Jefferson has not played that well to be frank and his replacement played extremely well in his absence. Carr is harder to replace given his durability and versatility. Stanley I would definitely try to extend, but that may or may not increase cap space. If it does it won’t be much unless it is a very backloaded contract. I for one am very hopeful that Yanda returns to play one more season. He had a fantastic 2019 and I would like to see him around for one more run at a championship.

MR: I think Jefferson is an easy cut. A decision has to be made on Carr before the new league year starts and I think I’m cutting him but wouldn’t mind bringing him back at a lower cost. He was our nickel corner when Tavon Young went down. Only had 16 targets his way in the slot, but allowed 11 catches, 3 TDs, a 131.0 passer rating in his direction. Depth is good there with Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey. No telling if they retain Jimmy Smith either.  Love to see Yanda return, and Stanley is a must-extend. Such an important position. Thinking maybe the Ravens enter free agency with $35M+ to play with.

JK: I’m firmly in the Carr can go camp. I thought he was fine, I like him, I think he’s good in the locker room. But Elliott should be back, the Ravens will probably draft another S. They’ve got Young, Humphrey, Peters with Marshall and Averett to behind them.

I think Hurst is gone. You don’t bring in Andre Smith to burn $5 million in cap on Hurst. See if you can get Smith on the vet minimum next year and let him be your backup swing tackle. That’s another $2.5 million.

This is a bit out of the box, and I doubt it happens but I could also see a Pierce swap for Williams. The Ravens found success with run stuffers like Peko and Ellis, maybe they’re OK with that moving forward. Pierce is a guy I like. And you can designate Williams as Post June-1. I sincerely doubt it happens, but maybe if the right FA comes up on the interior of the DL they really like. Also, you’ve got Humphrey and Stanley on the horizon, maybe you just want to put that value into them now or start saving for them.

Also, if Yanda were to retire it might not be that terrible. Bozeman/Mekhari held up nicely, I thought and with a year of growth you might be able to live with Powers as the other G but theoretically Skura is back at some point during the season. I don’t expect it with the Ravens feeling so close to being a true contender but also another interesting way to go.

Ravens major names up for free agency include: Jimmy Smith, Matt Judon, Michael Pierce, Patrick Onwuasor, Seth Roberts, Anthony Levine, Pernell McPhee, Domata Peko, Josh Bynes, Brandon Carr (Club option worth $7M in cap space). Matt Skura will need to be tendered as an RFA. Who do you want to see return? How much of your cap space are you devoting to retaining the guys?

GF: I think Judon is the only must re-sign. He will likely be Franchise tagged if a long-term deal can’t be ironed out. Carr I already mentioned should be retained. Smith and Pierce, I would like to have back, but I think it will depend on the price tag.

If Pierce is looking to get a Brandon Williams type deal which frankly, he probably could command in free agency, I am going to pass. I am not sure what the market for Smith will look like as a CB with an injury history on the wrong side of 30, I could see him coming back after testing free agency and sign a short 2-3-year team-friendly deal.

Skura I would definitely bring back on a RFA tender. I’d like to bring back McPhee on a similar one-year deal that he signed in 2019 and also sign Jihad Ward to something a bit longer, maybe 2-3 years at a reasonable APY. I would also like to bring back Josh Bynes. He is a limited player in some ways, but he demonstrated his value this past season and if the price is right, he would be an asset.

I think Levine, Onwuasor, Peko and Roberts can all walk without it having a significant impact to the team. Onwuasor was probably the most disappointing player on the roster this season. It’s hard to find a reason to keep him, and the others I think are fairly easily replaced.

MR: I would like to retain Judon on a similar deal to what Za’Darius Smith got from the Packers. Fear that Jadeveon Clowney gets vastly overpaid and sets the bar out of the neighborhood I’m willing to go for an edge rusher.

Jimmy Smith if the deal is team friendly. He hasn’t stayed healthy, or out of trouble for a while. Maybe 2 years, $12M. Depth there gives the Ravens leverage in negotiating with him. Love to keep Pierce but don’t see it happening. He’s priced out of here.

Onwuasor, Peko, Bynes, McPhee, all replaceable, but all would be ok with keeping on the cheap.  $1M each.

Bump Levine up to $2M, Roberts blocking is getting overlooked because it doesn’t show up on the stat sheet. But he’s been key in the running game. Selfless as well. Like to see him return. Maybe at 2/$7M with club option in 2021.

I guess I’d be ok with tying up around half to two-thirds of our current available cap space on retaining guys. Why not? They went 14-2. No need for massive turnover this time around.

JK: Skura and Judon are the three getting my consideration. Skura is a lock since he’s a RFA. But it seems unlikely he’s ready to start the year. Judon I’m keeping, just because pass rushers have value. If you could go out and get Barrett and Clowney, I’d let Judon walk, though.

Pierce and all the rest, I’d probably let go. The Ravens are good at drafting and developing DT talent. Just keep doing that.

A tad early to start predicting who the Ravens could draft, especially staring at pick #28. But if there was one position you would like to address with a round one pick, expected to make an impact in 2020, what position would it be?

GF: I think the two biggest needs for the Ravens will be pass-rush and WR, with interior OL being a close third, especially if Yanda retires. This draft class is shaping up to be an all-time great group of WRs so that may be where I lean at this point, but it will all depend on who is available.

MR: Inside Linebacker for me. Don’t take four games to realize you need to sign some guys off the street in order to make it work on defense. Might not be so fortunate this time around to have guys like Bynes and L.J. Fort be such difference makers. 

JK: At first, I was going to say ILB. But I just started scrolling through ILB free agents and honestly, there are some good ones. I like Van Noy, Schoebert, Collins, Littleton.  There are also always cuts at ILB, I think Avery Williamson will be a cap casualty, I’d be fine with any of those guys. So, I’d be OK waiting there, actually.

Then I was going to say pass rush. But again, I actually think there are some options in FA there, too. It remains to be seen who will actually be available but if you could make a run at Chris Jones, Yannick Ngakoue, Jadaveon Clowney, Shaq Barrett, and Arik Amrstead are all worthy guys, IMO. At #28 you’re going to get more of a Ferguson/Bowser type, IMO than an impact guy.

So, to me that leaves WR. If you can get another Hollywood Brown type that can post a 50/600/7 type year, that’s really good impact. You hope for development from Brown and Boykin to go with that receiver, and you’ve got a decent group to go with Snead. This guy should be a burner, IMO, though. Give us the option to put two speed guys on the outside and stay in run formations when we’re chasing to come back in games, that would be nice to see. Boykin, Snead are there for more possession roles and Boykin can stretch the defense just well enough when needed. I don’t know who that is, but if I’m drafting for 2020 alone, I’m probably going WR.