Orioles: Key Year For These 3 Prospects

What storyline are you anticipating the most when it comes to the 2020 Baltimore Orioles? Are you anxious to see how John Means performs in his sophomore season? Still think DJ Stewart can turn the corner? Are you a loyal believer in Chance Sisco and find yourself thinking this is his year, after 2018 and 2019 weren’t?

I don’t have to remind you that the 2020 Orioles are going to be bad, but that doesn’t mean this season won’t be fun to watch. You just might have to take a trip to the farm to experience that fun.

Luckily for Orioles fans, the minor league system is suddenly a top ten system in baseball and affiliates up and down the organization will feature noteworthy prospects to keep us entertained throughout the year. Even better, four Orioles affiliates are within a short drive from Camden Yards, with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides being down the road in Virginia. A visit to Harbor Park is worth the trip on its own, but the Tides will feature a deep rotation and Top 30 prospects up and down the roster.

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A key focus in 2020 will be the development of a growing list of high-quality prospects in the Baltimore Orioles farm system. Some of these prospects have already proven themselves down on the farm and will be making their major league debuts at some point in 2020 (Ryan Mountcastle, Keegan Akin, Dean Kremer), but there are a few who will be entering pivotal seasons in their development.

Here are three noteworthy prospects who I’m going to be watching closely this season and why 2020 is a big season for them. All three are Top 30 prospects but they teeter on the line between potential major league starter/reserve and rotation piece/bullpen arm and have reached a point in their development where it’s time to see some big gains in production.

Let’s start with an outfielder who I’m still very high on, Ryan McKenna. McKenna had a breakout campaign in 2018 with the Frederick Keys and kept the momentum going with a dominant run in the Arizona Fall League, however, his 2019 season in Double-A Bowie didn’t live up to expectations. Regardless, McKenna was protected from last month’s Rule 5 draft and earned himself a 40-man spot this offseason.

McKenna still possesses elite speed in the outfield (hasn’t translated to success on the basepaths, yet), the skill set necessary to be an everyday centerfielder at the major league level, and enough tools at the plate to make him an exciting hitter.

While it’s fair to say 2019 left a little to be desired at the plate, McKenna still posted a wRC+ of 104 and recorded 41 extra-base hits with a 10% walk rate and 21% strikeout rate in a season of low offensive numbers across the board in the Eastern League.

However, he traded in a lot of his gap power and live-drive contact for fly balls and while he hit nine home runs, his HR/FB rate dropped to 6.2%. McKenna has pop in his bat and could sneak in double-digit home runs a year, but a 40% fly ball rate and 18% line-drive rate won’t bring about much success.

With a move up to Triple-A Norfolk likely this year, will he continue to try and tap into his home run power? Or will his batted ball profile look a little more like 2018 Ryan McKenna? Can he become a consistent threat on the basepaths? Will he be fighting for an everyday outfield job with the Orioles or is he destined to become a defense-first reserve outfielder? All of these questions will be answered in 2020.

There’s no one in this system who I’ve watched more than RHP Brenan Hanifee and it always amazes me to see that the 15-year-old kid from Turner Ashby High School in Bridgewater, Virginia developed into one of the top pitching prospects for the Baltimore Orioles.

Possessing a low-90s fastball with eye-opening sink, a slider, and a developing changeup, Hanifee doesn’t pile up the strikeouts but he is able to produce a high percentage of ground balls and weak contact. His 2019 numbers weren’t impressive (9-10, 4.60 ERA, 1.42 WHIP), but the 6’5” righty is still just 21 years old, is arguably the most athletic pitcher in the Orioles system, and has the tools to develop into a starting rotation piece at the major league level.

A return to High-A Frederick wouldn’t be surprising, but Hanifee could very well end 2020 in Double-A with the Baysox. But what makes 2020 a success? The high strikeout totals aren’t going to be there, and there’s nothing wrong with that, however, his jump in walks from 4% to 10% is something to watch going forward.

If he can limit his walks, continue to develop his changeup, add a tick or two to his fastball, and continue to use his large, athletic frame and heavy sink fastball to keep the ball in the yard (0.84 HR/9 IP rate in home run-friendly Frederick), Hanifee will keep his name in conversation as a starting rotation option as he continues to move up the organizational ladder.

The last guy on this list is someone who I had completely written off ahead of the 2019 season. It took me a while to come around on Cody Sedlock last year, but after watching numerous outings online, I decided it was worth a trip to see him live again to decide whether or not I was jumping back on the Sedlock train. Call me a cautious believer again.

A first-round pick of the Orioles back in 2016, Sedlock overcame numerous injuries and struggles in the lower minors to have a strong 2019 between Frederick and Bowie. Across 22 total appearances, Sedlock went 5-3 with a 2.84 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .202 average against, thanks in large part to his new four-seam fastball and use of his advanced four-pitch mix.

Opponents were able to square him up fairly easily when he struggled with his command, but when he was on, Sedlock looked the part of a future major leaguer. The odds of him becoming a rotation piece are slim at this point, but Sedlock was one of the most improved prospects down on the farm last season and rebounded well beyond what was expected of him. He was left vulnerable to the Rule 5 draft, but I believe that more of a chess move from Mike Elias instead of an indictment of how the Orioles view his future potential.

Carving out a role in the bullpen could be the path he needs to take to the major leagues. It’s a role he can be successful in, especially if his stuff is able to play up a bit in shorter stints. But first, can he repeat his success from last season, be more effective with his fastball, and continue to stay healthy? He’s worth keeping a close eye on in 2020.