The Orioles Won’t Make These Moves; But I’d Like To See Them

Spring Training has begun, and we will begin counting down to Opening Day and the start of the Baltimore Orioles 2020 season.

It’s going to be a tough-sell to the average fan.

It’s hard for most people to get excited about the beginning of a season, that you know going into you are going to lose 90+ games.

Even for those of us who are baseball nuts, and enjoy watching organization building; it’s admittedly still tough to be fully vested in games where you are either quickly falling behind, or you are watching players you know definitively won’t be part of any future quality Orioles team.

Luckily as this 2020 season progresses, there will be increasing amounts of players on the O’s ML roster that have a chance to be contributors going forward.  Doesn’t mean they will be, that’s to-be-determined. But watching guys who could be part of the future vs. guys you know are not – is always a more interesting watch.

There are some things I’d like to see the O’s do this Spring, which would have me more excited for this season.

I don’t expect the O’s to do any of them.

That’s fine, there are justifiable reasons not to.
These ideas are just my personal preferences.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Be Willing To Release Chris Davis Prior To Opening Day

It would be pretty surprising to me if the Orioles released Davis this Spring.  Clearly the hope is that with a return to strength-training, and another off-season to clear his head; that he’ll arrive in camp and look ready to put his horrific ’18, and ’19 seasons behind him.

That would be great to see, and I’ll be rooting for Davis as long as he’s in an Oriole uniform.
I’m still of the opinion that his decline is more mental, than physical. To me, he is a current day Steve Sax / Chuck Knoblauch / Rick Ankiel.  It’s difficult to watch, and I feel horrible for him.

My sense is the O’s want to give Davis every chance this Spring, and will bring him North probably no matter what. Then they are likely to give him regular ab’s at-least through April, and maybe into May.

That’s fine, and I’m not going to cry about it.
Certainly would be great if the light came back-on.

I do think the O’s should be able to make a determination of where he’s at pretty quickly.
If they aren’t seeing any reason to believe there is going to be a turn-around, I think it would benefit everyone if the Orioles released him.

If Davis is released, move Mancini to 1st

Many of us spent the Winter wondering if the Orioles were going to trade Trey Mancini.
They didn’t.

I was of the opinion that the Orioles didn’t need to trade him, but they did need to listen to all offers.
I think they probably did that, and decided that were underwhelmed with the prospective returns.

The O’s probably won’t win 70 games this year, but the Orioles are a better team in ’20 (and going forward) if Mancini is at 1st.  He’s a below average OF.  The roster works better with him at 1st, where he has a great chance of becoming at-least average defensively.

If Mancini is at 1st, start the year with Smith in LF, and Santander in RF

Smith is not an ideal 4th OF, because defensively he can really only play LF.
If DJ Stewart was healthy, Smith’s roster position would be in real question for me.

With Stewart likely needing an extended Spring and some rehab; I think Smith should make the roster. If Davis is gone, and Mancini is at 1st; then Smith can start in LF, and Santander can begin the year in RF.

My expectation is that Yusniel Diaz is going to arrive at camp with healthier legs than he had in ’19, and look good. I think he’ll go to AAA and produce, and by June will be a candidate for promotion. If he comes up then, I think he’ll take over RF, with Santander moving to LF.

Give Mountcastle Some Time At 2nd

For years at the BSL Board, I wrote about wanting to see the O’s give Mountcastle a look at 2nd. To me it was logical given that he started as a SS, and his arm didn’t play well at 3rd.

I’ve never had the thought he’d be a good defensive 2nd baseman, but I thought if he could be adequate there, with his bat that everyone generally believes will play at the ML level – that could be the best fit.  Maybe a Jeff Kent light (quality bat, below average glove).

I’ve never liked the idea of moving him to LF, and I like it less after Santander’s emergence last year.
Truthfully by the end of the ’19 season, I had abandoned the idea of looking at Mountcastle as anything but a DH / 1st baseman. Then Eutaw Street Report put out a recent article of moving him to 2nd, and it rekindled some past thoughts.

Most of me feels the timing doesn’t work really well.
Mountcastle – even with questions of his plate discipline – is ready for the Majors offensively. The only reason he’s going to start the 2020 season back at AAA is that the Orioles are going to hold him there until they gain another year of team control.

By June 1st at the latest, Mountcastle is going to be up in the bigs.
The concern about having him spend this Spring, and maybe April and May in the Minors working at 2nd; is that you wonder if the time he’d be spending learning yet another position would impact him offensively? Would that be unfair to him, just as he is ready to ascend to the Majors?

Still, I think the upside to the O’s if he could be anywhere near average defensively at 2nd, is worth giving him time there this Spring.

If he could take over 2nd for the Orioles in June, than Alberto can go to 3rd and potentially take over there if Ruiz’s bat has not improved.

Also if Mountcastle is at 2nd, then you can look at Nunez and Stewart as your longer-term DH options.

Start The 2020 Season With Akin, Kremer, and maybe Lowther in the rotation

I wanted the Orioles to sign Alex Wood, and Collin McHugh.
Wood signed with the Dodgers, and McHugh is still available.

It seems like the O’s might reunite with Andrew Cashner.

At this point, I’m inclined just to see the internal youth.

Akin had 24 starts at AAA. He should be able to give the O’s 140-150 innings.
The 4.73 AAA era isn’t exciting, but the ball was flying in the International League last year, and he had 131 k’s in his 112 innings. More concerning than the era, was the 61 bb’s allowed; but he should still be given every chance to make the O’s roster.

If you look at John Means’ MiL numbers entering 2019, there is nothing Means did which screamed ‘better prospect.’

Hand Akin the ball, and see if he can be a competent back-of-the-rotation Major League starter.

Akin breaking camp with the Birds might happen.

I’m not expecting Kremer to do so, but I’d like to see it.

Kremer had a quality year at AA, and then was knocked around at the AAA level over 19 innings.
Maybe that was adjusting to the AAA talent. Maybe he was tired at the end of the year.
It’s 19 innings, it’s too little a sample size to read into no matter what.

I fully anticipate that Kremer will begin ’20 with Norfolk.
That’s fine.  He’ll only be a call away, and if he’s looking good there he can earn his way up.

I’d be fine with him starting the year in the O’s rotation though.
I think he could help, but also think his upside is only so much.  He isn’t a Rodriguez, or Hall.  Guys you are really depending on long-term and need to make sure you are developing correctly.

He’s described as a crafty guy that knows how to pitch.
I’d be good with throwing him into the deep end, and hoping he showed month-to-month improvement. I know I’d be more interested in watching him every 5th day vs. watching the O’s send Wojciechowski* out to the mound.

(*Not to pick on Wojciechowski too much. He actually looked competent at the end of last year, but he’s a 31 year old journeyman. If he’s going to be on the roster, would ideally be a bullpen swing guy, vs. someone you are giving extended starts.)

I ultimately feel similarly about Lowther, though unlike Kremer, he’s not on the 40 man roster.
Like Kremer, Lowther is coming off a strong AA season.
Like Kremer, Lowther’s upside is questioned, but there is belief in his pitchability.
Like Kremer, he can go (and figures to) to AAA and be a call away.
Like Kremer, I don’t think you are risking much in-terms of his further development, if you were to begin the year with Lowther in the ML rotation.

If you had all three in the Opening Day rotation, you’d be left with something like:

Rotation: Means, Cobb, Akin, Kremer, Lowther
Bullpen: Givens, Harvey, Scott, Tate, Bailey, Bleier or Fry, Wojciechowski, Armstrong or Castro
AAA SP: Baumann, Wells, Zimmermann, Hess
AAA BP: Carroll, Kline, Phillips

Will the Orioles do that? No, I don’t think there is much chance.

Should the Orioles do that? I’m fine if you don’t think so. I’m fine with wanting Kremer and Lowther to go to AAA, and produce there first.

Would the Orioles be a more interesting product?  I’d be more excited watching that trio vs. watching Wojciechowski, LeBlanc, Milone, etc; but I understand the counter.

Regardless, Akin, Kremer, Lowther, Bailey, Baumann, Wells, Zimmermann probably all get starts this year the ML level, and that will be a better watch vs. the 76 starts Brooks, Hess, Ynoa, Straily, Yacabonis, Eshelman, Blach, and Wojciechowski got in ’19.