Exploring Matt Judon’s Worth, and the Ravens Options

Matt Judon is set to become a free agent if he and the Ravens don’t reach a deal within the next three to four weeks. Free agency, and the new league season officially starts on March 18^th at 4pm. Teams often negotiate with free agents to be in the days leading up to the red-letter date. Keep in mind that starting on Feb. 25^th, teams can assign tags to players, and must do so by March 10^th. So there will be about a one week period where if Judon isn’t signed, or tagged, then we’ll know he’s going to test the open market.

To re-sign him, to franchise/transition tag him, to let him walk. Reading the tea leaves, there are people on all sides.

Let’s dive in and see where Judon stacks up.

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Going back to his testing at the NFL Combine, he was the most explosive edge rusher that attended in 2016. His explosion score (bench reps + vertical in inches + broad jump in feet) was 74.08. It’s not an end all be all, but a tool to use. Over 70.0 is considered “explosive”. J.J. Watt posted an 81.0 in that metric at his combine. Teams like the Ravens did with Judon, can find value there given that in the same draft as Watt, the Kansas City Chiefs drafted Justin Houston in round three with an explosion score of 76.92. Houston led the NFL in 2014 with 22 sacks. He’s been to four Pro Bowls, was once an All-Pro, and after three years of injuries cutting his seasons very short, now at age 30 with the Colts, he racked up 11 sacks this past season.

Matt Judon, former fifth round pick, is not Justin Houston, nor J.J. Watt, but could be an asset given that he just now started a full 16 games and has 9.5 sacks in 2019. The learning curve for Judon may have been steeper coming from Grand Valley State and that level of competition. He notched his highest snap count playing 837 of them. 450 in a pass rush capacity.

Breaking down his pass rush stats:

 

While Judon is struggling to reach the quarterback, perhaps that isn’t always his fault. A quarterback can throw the ball away, elude him, quarterbacks are playing more and more shotgun and getting the ball out quicker. Pressures disrupt the quarterback, the timing of a play, it can lead to turnovers. We know this. Pressures may be more important, and sacks would be a bonus. I’ll look more into this.

Matt Judon pressures per pass rush attempt:

2016 – 0.11

2017 – 0.11

2018 – 0.13

2019 – 0.14. 9.5 sacks

How does 0.14 rack up against other free agent edge rushers? (Playoffs included).

Shaq Lawson – 0.13 (40/298. 7 sacks)

Dante Fowler – 0.13 (67/507. 15 sacks)

Bud Dupree – 0.09 (51/542. 13 sacks)

Robert Quinn – 0.14 (57/404. 12 sacks)

Kyle Van Noy – 0.13 (60/464. 8 sacks)

Arik Armstead – 0.12 (73/593. 13 sacks)

Yannick Ngakoue – 0.10 (50/489. 8 sacks)

Shaq Barrett – 0.14 (82/580. 20 sacks)

Jadeveon Clowney – 0.12 (58/482. 4 sacks)

Based on those numbers, it seems to me like Matt Judon didn’t rush the passer enough. Of the 10 free agents in question here, Judon was eighth in pass rush attempts. If he would have gotten 100 more, that puts him on pace for 77 pressures, which of this group would have been second behind Barrett and tied for seventh in the league with Von Miller. If Judon got 77 pressures, it puts him around 12.5 sacks, 10^th in the league along with Joey Bosa.

Perhaps part of Judon not racking up the snaps is the Ravens ball control, running first, letting the clock run type of offense, taking up the field for much of the game?

I feel like there is a lot of variability in pass rushing. A player with 80 pressures could notch anywhere from 12 to 20 sacks. That is a wide range. Given the variable that the quarterback has to take the sack, especially in the case that it isn’t coming from his blind side, pressures seem like the best measurement of pass rushers.

Let’s look at Za’Darius Smith (Playoffs included). His last year in Baltimore he was tasked with 485 pass rush assignments on 741 snaps played. 65.5% pass rush% which Judon hasn’t sniffed yet. Smith was 0.13 in pressures per pass rush snap in 2018 with 61 pressures on those 485 tries. 10 Sacks.

Smith goes to Green Bay in free agency for 2019 and his snap count jumps up to 976 (playoffs included), with 594 of them as a pass rusher. 60.9%. Down from how the Ravens used him, but still more than the Ravens are using Judon other than his rookie year. He notches 104 pressures, good for a rate of 0.18. 18 sacks.  If Judon were to have gotten to rush on 60.9% last year, his pass rush attempts would have increased by 60. That’s an extra eight to nine pressures, an extra sack or two, pushing him over double digits.

The Ravens have found a couple of upper tier pass rushers in recent drafts. But are they getting the most out of them? Is Judon worth the risk of a long-term contract? What is he worth?

Za’Darius Smith earned four years, $66M from Green Bay. That puts the total value of his contract at 10^th in the NFL among edge rushers. The highest paid edge rusher is Khalil Mack at six years, $141M. Mack also pressured the passer at a 0.13 rate, 9 sacks. 2019 advantage, Green Bay.

Justin Houston got a two-year deal for $23M to essentially prove he could get past the injuries at age 30. $11.5 AAV.

Joey Bosa will have his fifth-year option picked up and make $14.36M this upcoming year.

Shaq Barrett wasn’t extended by the Broncos after notching just 14 sacks combined over his first four years. Tampa brings him in for a look at one-year, $4M. Then he racks up 19.5-20 sacks, depending on the publication.

Kind of all over the map here. Let’s go back to Green Bay but to the other Smith. Preston Smith. Green Bay acquired him in 2019 as well after four years in Washington at four-years, $52M. Let’s line up Judon, and the Smith pair.

 

Why is it the fifth year, including Shaq Barrett, when these guys really take off? Can Judon do the same is a big question?

Afraid to say, the extension for Judon is going to have to be similar to what Za’Darius Smith got on the open market, at a minimum. That is just the price teams are paying for pass rushers that aren’t in the elite level like Von Miller a few years back, and Khalil Mack. Judon outpaced Za’Darius Smith in pressures every step of the way under their rookie contracts. If the Ravens extend him, they hope Judon takes a massive step forward. Like Za’Darius did as well.

Now if someone can find the next Shaq Barrett, a cast off that a team takes a flier on and racks up 20 sacks, be my guest. But for now, expect the contract Judon could get on the open market to be around the $60M in total value mark.

Should the Ravens go that high? Should they wish him well and address the vacancy in the draft?

Third option is the franchise tag or transition tag. In the final year of the CBA, teams can use both tags in the same season. The franchise tag would put Judon on a one-year deal worth an estimated $16.2M. Mind you, $16.2M would eat up about half of the Ravens available cap space, and make Judon the highest cap hit on the team, ahead of Earl Thomas’ $15M cap hit in 2020. But it buys you an extra year of development, evaluation, without the long-term commitment if he regresses. Possibly a risk you can afford to take while your star quarterback is still under a rookie contract.

Another way to look at it is you franchise tag Judon at $16.2M. If the long-term contract comparison is Za’Darius Smith at 4/$66M, the average annual value of his deal is $16.5M. However, in the long-term contract case you would backload the contract to lower the cap hit in 2020, but if things go sour you are facing dead money in the 22’, 23’ seasons.  If he plays like Smith just did in 2019, you are getting great value compared to the Khalil Mack contract.

The transition tag a is a bit cheaper, estimated to be about $14M. But with the transition tag, Judon could field offers from other teams, sign an offer sheet, then the Ravens would be able to match said offer in order to retain him. They could end up paying the $14M, or a team could offer far more, and the price is out of the Ravens comfort zone and you lose him. Or you pay him the $14M but no team offers anything higher and you wonder if you could have retained him for less money, longer term. He has a great 2020 season, then is priced out of here for 2021 and beyond.

Decision, decisions, decisions. This is why Eric DeCosta and company make the big bucks. This is also why DeCosta has been proactive on signing guys before they get close to the open market, like Chuck Smith, Marcus Peters, Patrick Ricard, Tavon Young, and others who will be key players going forward. Being proactive gets the team a small discount, but also gets players paid, making it a win-win for both sides.

The next few weeks should be interesting regarding Matt Judon and the number one thing Ravens fans should keep an eye on. He could be tagged as early as next Tuesday. It would certainly affect draft strategy. Don’t look now, but the 2020 combine is about to start. It’s football season folks!