As any office park middle manager knows, you must define your goals before beginning a project. The Orioles are a project. Given they project to win the fewest games in baseball according to Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system, perhaps “product” is even an overly kind description, akin to calling a serial cannibal, “hungry.” The success of the 2020 Orioles won’t be defined on the field, which is fortunate, because that would be like writing an huge X next to “Name” on the S.A.T. and then turning the test in. So, how will it be defined? Glad you should ask because, as it turns out, that’s the subject of this article!
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GM Mike Elias and the Orioles front office clearly don’t expect to compete for the playoffs this season. I know that because they still have jobs. They are targeting a specific future season in which they want to compete for the playoffs. Given the current state of the major league roster and the overall organizational talent level, it’s likely that target season is a few years down the road, 2022 or even 2023. That’s important to know because all roster planning is done with that date in mind. Players who will pass their peak or reach free agency before that season can and should be traded for players with team control past that date. Any player on the current Orioles roster is expendable if another major league team is willing to part with prospects who could potentially impact that mythical 2022 (or later!) roster.
This is particularly true for players who aren’t signed through the 2022 season. Building up the value of those players is, I would argue, the primary on-field goal of the 2020 Orioles. Trey Mancini projects to have another good season with the bat. He’ll be a free agent following the 2022 season and is already 27 years old. He should be the team’s primary trade piece at or before the deadline as his combination of above-average offense and team control could net real value in return. A decent half season by Jose Iglesias, Mychal Givens, Wade LeBlanc, or Alex Cobb could make those players desirable to contenders at the deadline. If they are, Elias should make sure they’re on the first plane out of town. If anyone ever offers anything for Chris Davis the Orioles should agree quickly before the other GM on the phone is fired or wakes up.
Moving major league pieces for value at the deadline is one of two markers of success for the major league club in 2020. The other is losing as many games as possible. Tanking has a bad name nowadays and, yes, bad baseball teams are up there with drinking a gallon of water and then sitting in traffic for two hours in terms of fun, but there is a reason teams do it (tanking, not the water thing). Despite the last three seasons being pretty awful, the Orioles still desperately need to improve their minor league talent base and the quickest way to do that is to lose more baseball games than any team in baseball in 2020. This isn’t just about getting a higher first round pick, either. This isn’t a snake draft. Teams that pick high in the draft pick high in every round, thus every pick is higher, not just the one in the first round. Even more importantly, picking higher in the draft means a larger draft budget to work with. The 2019 draft saw the Orioles with the first overall pick receive a draft budget of $13,821,300. Had the Orioles picked just four slots lower, they would have had $2 million fewer dollars to sign players with. Teams can bring in multiple high-ceiling players with that money, so more than losing a lot of games, the 2020 Orioles need to lose the most games in order to win more games in 2022 and beyond.
That’s a pretty bleak picture for the 2020 Orioles. Fortunately for O’s fans, there is a whole lot to be excited about in 2020 outside of Baltimore. 2019 first overall draft pick Adley Rutschman is at the top of that list. The most important thing the Orioles can do in 2020 is help Rutschman along the path towards developing into the star he projects to be. Catching is notoriously difficult and thus developmental timelines for catchers tend to be longer than for other position players, so patience needs to be stressed. That said, a strong season for Rutschman will be a massive step towards making 2020 a success.
Fortunately for the Orioles, Rutschman isn’t the team’s only prospect, even if he is the most prominent. Development for other top prospects is important, too. Can Grayson Rodriguez stay healthy and while continuing to refine his pitches as he moves towards the upper minors? Will DL Hall throw enough strikes to make his great stuff from the left side play up to their potential? Can Ryan Mountcastle begin to learn the strike zone enough that he can project as an above average regular at the major league level? If the answer is yes to most of these questions, the O’s are cooking with gas.
Then there are the talented but more questionable prospects in the minors. Yusniel Diaz, the prize of the Manny Machado trade (at least initially), needs to stay healthy enough that the team can assess what it has in him. A similar statement could be made, though to a lesser degree, about Austin Hays, who projects to start for the Orioles in center field. If things go well, O’s fans could start to see the fruits of the teams labors this season, with Hays, Diaz, and Mountcastle in the field and starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Michael Baumann in the rotation. Giving those players playing time now will help them prepare and improve for that mythical contending season in the near future.
Finally, there is the 2020 draft and international market. Baltimore has the second overall pick, meaning they will be able to draft a premium player in the first round, like shortstop Austin Martin, first baseman Spencer Torkelson, or pitcher Emerson Hancock. It also means they will have among the most money to buy players out of returning to school later in the draft. It’s a real opportunity on top of last year’s draft to add lots of talent to the system. Further, while Baltimore has traditionally sat out of the international market, that other way of acquiring amateur talent, that practice needs to end. Ignoring the international market while in this organizational state is tantamount to malpractice. The Orioles aren’t spending money on the major league product because they are rebuilding. Fine. But that means spending money on rebuilding, both in the draft and the international market.
The Orioles on the field at Camden Yards won’t be very good in 2020. Fortunately that doesn’t much matter. It’s like expecting to drive a car that hasn’t been put together yet. This will take years, but the car won’t run if the engine isn’t built properly, and that starts now. Enjoy 2020 O’s fans. It might not look like it in the standings, but it is an important year, and with any luck you’ll look back at the 2020 season in a few years as the first step towards the perennially contending baseball team playing in Baltimore.
Orioles Analyst
Matthew Kory is a Orioles / MLB Analyst for BSL. He has covered baseball professionally for The Athletic, Vice Sports, Sports On Earth, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. He lives in Portland, Oregon with his wife, two boys, and his cats, Mini Squeaks and The President. Co-Host of The Warehouse.