As the top two pitching prospects in the Baltimore Orioles’ farm system, DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez are important to the organization’s rebuild. Both players, however, still have some time to go in their development, leaving questions about when they could ultimately reach the majors.
Hall and Rodriguez posted solid 2019 seasons, with Hall delivering a promising campaign at High-A Frederick and Rodriguez dominating at Low-A Delmarva in his first full season. Coming into 2020, they are regarded as the best hurlers in the farm system, with most lists ranking Rodriguez as the Orioles’ second-best prospect, behind only catcher Adley Rutschman, and placing Hall third. We followed that precedent in our Top-30 Prospects list for Baltimore Sports and Life’s The Verge podcast, noting the particularly high upside that both pitchers have. (My The Verge co-host Nick Stevens wrote the scouting reports, which can be read here.)
If the 2020 minor-league season does eventually get underway, Hall and Rodriguez figure to receive time at Double-A Bowie and Frederick, respectively. Both pitchers are still a few years out from reaching the majors, with their timelines depending on a few unknowns that go beyond typical questions about development and potential injuries. In the immediate future, we still do not know if/when the minor-league season will begin and how it will look if it does launch, as the 2020 MLB and MiLB campaigns remain on hold amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, there is the question of service time, and whether the same rules currently in place—which typically result in MLB clubs leaving top prospects in the minors for roughly the first month of the season in order to gain another year of team control—will be part of the game beyond the current collective bargaining agreement, set to expire after the 2021 season.
(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)
Regarding the more immediate issue, the minor-league season is unlikely to get underway until late spring/early summer in the best-case scenario. If there is a reduced MiLB schedule in 2020, then I would not be surprised to see Hall and Rodriguez repeat levels at the beginning of the 2021 season, short of them flat-out dominating over the span of a shortened 2020. For Hall, this could mean an abbreviated stint back at Bowie at the start of 2021, while Rodriguez would return to Frederick for a likewise limited period.
That being said, that delay should not necessarily set either player too far off their timelines. As for the CBA issue, while service-time rules might look very different after the 2021 season, changes to the current practices might not tweak the Orioles’ approach too much, especially if they do not believe there is a need for either player to be on the roster at the start of the MLB season.
The reason I mentioned the service-time issue is that I do not currently expect either pitcher to make his major-league debut before 2022. Barring a surprising run at contention in 2021, there will be no practical reason to rush either hurler, and even at that, the Orioles would probably only promote one as a late-season option to bolster the bullpen or rotation. (In that very optimistic best-case hypothetical, I give the edge to Hall for now, because he has a year of experience over Rodriguez.)
In the most likely scenario, I expect Hall to reach the majors first, with an MLB debut during the 2022 season possible. That is predicated on him pitching about half of 2021 at Triple-A Norfolk (barring the complete cancellation of the 2020 season, which could stall his timeline for reaching the majors), with at least a couple of months there in 2022. The Orioles have so far been conservative with their top pitching prospects under the Mike Elias-led baseball operations department, and I don’t expect that to change in the near future, especially given that Hall is just 21 years old right now. There is also the prospect of his debut being pushed to early 2023, a route the Orioles could take if they have nothing to play for over the final weeks and months of the 2022 season and believe that shutting him down would be the more beneficial option.
Rodriguez, at this point, is likely to run behind Hall, with a debut during the 2023 season possible. As with the timeline I mentioned for Hall, the Orioles could bump that back a season if they are not contending at the major-league level. However, I’m a bit more hopeful that the Orioles will have something to play for in 2023, especially if Rutschman meets expectations, and the organization builds around him with a mix of current prospects, players picked up in the 2020 and 2021 drafts, solid trade acquisitions, and potentially some additions via the major-league free agent market. (My BSL colleague Matthew Kory took a look at what the team’s next playoff roster could look like earlier this week.)
Now, what I have presented so far is the best and middle-of-the-road case scenarios for Hall and Rodriguez. What are the worst-case scenarios? That either or both stall in their development because of injuries, leaving the Orioles in the position where they are now with Hunter Harvey—where they hope he can stay healthy enough to emerge as a dominant late-inning reliever at the major-league level. While I’m hopeful that Harvey is part of the Orioles’ nucleus during their next run of contention, the organization’s outlook would be much brighter if either Hall or Rodriguez emerge as a middle-to-top-of-the-rotation starter rather than a reliever.
There are also, of course, questions of whether both pitchers can maintain their success at the higher levels. For Hall, this is going to mean cutting back on his walks (he posted a 6.0 BB/9 rate in 80 2/3 innings at Frederick last year), while some question if Rodriguez’s delivery will cause him problems in the long run.
With both players having plenty of time to develop, however, there is time for those questions to sort themselves out. For the time being, they are two prospects that give the Orioles hope for a brighter future.
Orioles Analyst
A graduate of the University of Massachusetts, and Loyola University; Spedden has previously spent time in the Washington Nationals organization as a videographer for the Hagerstown Suns. As a blogger, Spedden is an Editor / Writer for the Suns fan club. Additionally, he contributes to The Nats Blog as a prospect writer, and Ballpark Digest. For BSL, Spedden covers the Orioles Minor Leagues. Co-Host of The Verge: https://anchor.fm/the-verge