Analytics versus J.K. Dobbins

One of the most riveting things about this year’s NFL draft was watching the Baltimore Ravens, who have become a bit of an idealized organization in the eyes of the broader analytics community after a season of fourth-down attempts and aggressiveness, draft a running back in the second round. 

General manager Eric DeCosta has already spoken about drafting Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins multiple times, including calling him a three-down back on Wednesday and saying that it would have been “irresponsible” not to draft him. 

With Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill already in the backfield, the Ravens looked to have created an ideal backfield mix of power, speed, and receiving ability last season. Of course, having Lamar Jackson on the team will make most backs look good, but contextually this felt like a bit of an odd move considering what we know about running backs. 

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

The recent history of highly-drafted backs is not full of hits

Over the last 10 seasons, there have been many success stories from late-round or undrafted running backs. Arian Foster is probably the best undrafted back, but we’ve also got names like Devonta Freeman, Alfred Morris, Austin Ekeler, Chris Carson, and Matt Breida in the camp. 

Meanwhile, for every success story like Ezekiel Elliott or Christian McCaffrey, you get two or three backs like Sony Michel, Beanie Wells, Trent Richardson, and Jahvid Best. Even the “successful” picks at running backs early on, like Eddie Lacy, don’t really return as much as you’d like. Only 11 backs made an All-Pro first team in their first three years in the NFL over the past 10 years, and of those 11, only seven were actually drafted in the first two rounds: Le’Veon Bell, Elliott, Todd Gurley, McCaffrey, Chris Johnson, LeSean McCoy, and Adrian Peterson.

There’s also the fact of the matter that running back happens to be a position of attrition. Many good running backs don’t make it to a real second contract because of wear and tear. And for the most part, running backs on second contracts don’t retain the skill sets that they had earlier because of the banging they take between the tackles. It’s not a position that ages well.  

So given those facts, most analytical thought would devalue running back as a position to the point where they’d rather throw a bunch of low-round and UDFA picks at a wall and see what sticks. The Ravens have had success with this model from both Edwards and Alex Collins in the seasons since Ray Rice’s tenure ended. They seemed well on this track with Edwards and Hill, with Ingram caretaking the position as a difference-maker for the moment. 

Here’s an argument for why I think DeCosta was right to select Dobbins

Clearly there’s no denying Dobbins’ talent. Rookie Scouting Portfolio guru Matt Waldman labeled Dobbins as the best back in this class.

The most important phrase to me is the classification of “three-down back” that was uttered by DeCosta. I don’t think the Ravens have a player that fits that mold perfectly right now. Ingram can fake it, and he had a solid season as an underneath receiver last year, but he’s not a game breaker in that sense. 

One of the things that I think will matter more in the coming years in the NFL — and has already mattered a lot in cases such as the Patriots dynasty — is the concept of “positionless” football. Basically: the more a player is good at, the harder it is for a defense to key on any one thing. The Pats were able to exploit this to some extent because Rob Gronkowski was a difference maker as both a blocker and a receiver. When they had Aaron Hernandez as well, they became a team that was impossible to key on. Do you keep the linebackers on the field and let the tight ends embarrass them, or do you go to safeties and corners that those tight ends can still beat and give an edge in the run game?

That is one of Lamar Jackson’s biggest strengths right now: He is a positionless football quarterback archetype. (It unfortunately is also why loud analysts spend a lot of time pretending he isn’t a good traditional quarterback, but I digress.) Jackson gives a numbers edge on run plays, and he’s also terrific just dropping back and slinging the ball. That dynamic is a big reason why Baltimore was able to do what they did last year in taking the league by storm with the run game. 

Dobbins is a stab at a guy who can play in the backfield, but can also operate as a real receiver. That allows some level of disguise, play sophistication, and defensive honor that wouldn’t otherwise exist. When Gus Edwards comes in, teams know the Ravens will run more often than they would if Justice Hill was out there. The idea behind the Dobbins pick being a good one in my eyes is that if he hits his upside, he changes that sort of calculus entirely. 

The Ravens earned the right to take this shot

That’s where I ultimately fall on it. 

Baltimore had six picks in the first three rounds thanks to trading around and compensation selections being awarded. When you have that many stabs at the apple, and the process is good, I mind the sort of “heat check” selection less. I think heat check as a term probably undersells how good Dobbins is, but I think that’s how it should be thought of analytically. 

When the biggest argument flashpoints of a franchise become things like “this good running back might have been drafted early,” you know things are going well.