2020 MLB Draft: Rounds 3 Through 5

The 2020 MLB Draft is less than a week away. With the largest draft pool and three picks on Day 1, the Orioles have a huge opportunity to add to and improve on Baseball America’s 12th-ranked minor league system. While the majority of that work will happen on Day 1, rounds three through five—plus the bevy of undrafted free agents—still represent several more shots at finding the next J.T. Realmuto (3rd round, 2010), Cody Bellinger (4th round, 2013), or Max Muncy (5th round, 2012).

The Orioles three picks—74th, 103rd, and 133rd—carry a total draft pool of $1.8 million. Depending on how the Orioles spend their money on Day 1, this pool may be much smaller. As such, we’re going to look at several players through the lens of their DRAFT Score: players who may fall to the Orioles, players whose rankings fall right in line with the three picks, and players who may represent a significant cost savings.

As always, these players are being evaluated through my DRAFT (Data-Reasoned Amateur Future Talent) model. For more information on the model as well as a list of the top 100 scores (More scores available on request), visit my site at Sabermetric Sandlot.

Round 3

The Prep Shortstops: The three likely-available at #70 players with the highest model scores are three high school shortstops: Colt Keith (7.26 DRAFT score, ranked 43rd), Drew Bowser (7.23, 44th), and Yohandy Morales (6.65, 46th). All three are big players, each reaching a height of 6’3″ or taller. As such, they’re expected to likely move off the position, and they each have questionable swings—although there could be adjustments that would improve them. But the potential of young shortstops is still enough to put them in the top 50.

Freddy Zamora: With a DRAFT score of 6.54, Zamora comes in ranked 48th. He could have wound out even higher had he played in his Junior year, but a knee injury ended it before he took the field. Zamora avoids strikeouts (-0.099 adjusted strikeout rate) and had started to improve his power to passable levels (ISO up 70 points from his Freshman to Sophomore years). Unlike the high school crew above, Zamora is likely to stick at shortstop and grades out as an excellent defender there. He’s the type of all-around player who could be a solid regular for the Orioles in a few of years.

Tommy Mace: Mace mixes a solid two-seamer in with questionable secondaries in a slider and changeup. That said, he’s started in the SEC and limited his walks in his three seasons—adjusted walk rate of -0.022. His DRAFT score is 6.12, ranked 52nd overall, and he has a groundball specialist innings-eater expectation.

The Cost Savers: While Ian Seymour and Landon Knack would seemingly fit better at #103, their relatively high DRAFT score rankings indicate they may be intriguing cost-saving options at #70. Seymour’s made a huge jump in the past year, following up an impressive Cape Cod campaign with 40 strikeouts in 20 innings this Spring. Knack is the highest-ranked Senior in the draft, also putting up incredible numbers in the short season—51 strikeouts to a single walk. Both have questions about their ability to stay in the rotation, but their stats drive up their DRAFT scores. Seymour comes in at 6.14, ranked 51st, and Knack has a score of 5.77, good for 54th.

Round 4

Trenton Denholm: Denholm is an undersized righty with steady stuff who keeps the walks down and strikeouts up. He might have more questions if he hadn’t performed so well in Cape Cod, throwing over 30 innings without an earned run. His DRAFT score of 4.37 comes in as the 72nd-best score.

Nick Frasso: He might be higher is he hadn’t had forearm tightness this Spring. Frasso brings huge strikeout numbers (0.134 adjusted strikeout rate) and control (-0.024 adjusted walks) with potentially two plus pitches. He is the 61st-ranked player with a DRAFT score of 6.07.

Zach DeLoach: After two pedestrian seasons at Texas A&M, DeLoach went on a tear in Cape Cod last summer and carried it over to the early spring, slashing .421/.547/.789 in 77 PAs. He has no plus tools but represents a solid all-around game that will likely see him in a corner outfield spot. His DRAFT score of 4.97 is good for the 63rd ranking.

Adam Seminaris: Another college performer with average stuff (He does have a plus changeup). The strikeouts rocketed up in the small sample and being a lefty is a nice plus. His DRAFT scores in 4.3, 76th overall.

Round 5

Braden Olthoff: Olthoff is an interesting player. He started pitching as a high school Senior, went to a JuCo, and came to Tulane this year as a Junior. He then put up 47 Ks, 3 BBs, 1 ER, and a start with six innings of no-hit ball. The stuff is all average and up with plus command, but the track record is very short. He has a DRAFT score of 4.63, slotting in as 68th, meaning he could be a major cost-savings for the Orioles.

Mason Hickman: Average-ish stuff, big college numbers. 12.5 K/9 in his Sophomore and Junior years, 1.5 BB/9 this spring. DRAFT score of 4.48 comes in at 70th, well above his Baseball America ranking of 161st.

Zavier Warren: Utility player in the truest sense, having played catcher, shortstop, third base, and first base at Central Michigan. Huge walk totals (0.062 adjusted walk rate), with some nice gap power. DRAFT Score of 2.86, 94th overall.

Jack Leftwich: A stuff over results guy. Strikeouts and walks are there, but gets hit around a bit. This is likely due to a fastball that doesn’t play up to its 95-96 MPH. He has a starter’s frame, but it will be a backend guy. DRAFT score of 3.51, 83rd overall.

Undrafted Free Agents

The undrafted free agent market is going to be very difficult to project this year, as it’s uncertain what players may be willing to sign for only $20,000, and it’s also unknown who will be available. On a recent conference call Kiley McDaniel of ESPN commented that many teams are drastically shortening their list of high school players who they are willing to pay this year, meaning that many extra college players will likely be drafted this year compared to years past. That said, here are a few names of players—specifically older players as they are more likely to sign a UFA deal than a younger ones—who may be available after June 11th.

Chase Walter: Big, wild righty out of Western Carolina who was drafted last year in the 32nd round and didn’t sign. Big strikeouts, big walks, possible pluses on a fastball and slider. Relief possibility. DRAFT score 1.44, 219th overall. Redshirt Junior.

Ernie Yake: Small and skinny 2B type. Makes contact and doesn’t strike out (-0.089 adjusted strikeout rate). Seems like a possible AAAA type of player with some generic utility potential. DRAFT score 1.18, 261st overall. Redshirt Junior.

Cam Shepherd: Senior drafted in 2019 as a Junior in the 20th round and didn’t sign. May go back for one more year regardless. Can play shortstop solidly, but that’s his only real selling point. DRAFT score of 1.06, 280th overall.

Tucker Bradley: Undersized lefty corner outfielder with a solid hit tool and no to developing power (He did tap into it a bit more in 82 PAs this spring). 0.74 DRAFT score, 345th overall.

Wil Jensen: Coming off a Tommy John sugery in 2019, put up his best strikeout numbers of his career. Starter pitch mix and control, but the stuff is average to fringy. DRAFT score of 0.78, 337th overall.

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Next week, we’ll look back at the drafting, analyzing the players the six players Orioles take along with taking a look at the draft as a whole.