Ranking Baltimore’s best draft classes of the 2010s

As the football industry teeters into an offseason where it doesn’t even get mini-camps, news has become pretty scarce. This is a time in the football writing industry that we’d call “the dead zone,” and it’s a great place to step back and read some broader trend pieces. One of those that I fully recommend was a guest study done at Football Outsiders by Benjamin Ellinger that quantified how efficient a team was at drafting by the pro-football-reference stat Approximate Value — “AV” for short — that attempts to put a seasonal value on each player’s numerical contributions. 

The article came to the conclusion that over the past 10 years, the Ravens have had the second-highest return on their draft capital. And over the past 5 years, they’ve tied for first. Now, the Ravens have had a lot of picks over that time — if you compare their return to their capital, they’re top-10 instead of top-3. But it’s a testament to Ozzie Newsome and Eric DeCosta that they have continually overperformed the system and recognized the importance that more picks have brought to the table. 

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

So let’s look back at Baltimore’s last 10 years and pick the six best by these numbers, then let’s organize them subjectively because I have some takes.

1 — 2018

Draft Return: 7.16% (1)

Draft Return vs. Draft Capital: 185% (1)

This is pretty much a layup — getting Lamar Jackson at 32 was one of the biggest tone-shifters in the history of the Ravens franchise. They nailed two third-round picks in Mark Andrews and Orlando Brown. Bradley Bozeman has been a worthwhile find at 215th overall. Even the players the Ravens didn’t hit on have contributed a lot to today’s team: Kenny Young was part of the package to bring in Marcus Peters, and Hayden Hurst was turned into a second-round pick this offseason. That pick? J.K. Dobbins. 

2 — 2016

Draft Return: 4.37% (3)

Draft Return vs. Draft Capital: 94% (19)

In retrospect, there wasn’t really a wrong answer to Ronnie Stanley versus Laremy Tunsil at No. 6 overall, but the Ravens picked the better overall player there. The high point of the other picks was finding Matt Judon at 146th overall — he’s been a stellar edge presence for four years in Baltimore and earned the franchise tag this offseason. Tavon Young has shown a lot of promise in his two healthy seasons, something that doesn’t show up in AV. Chris Moore has been a useful special teams player and deep threat. There are a lot of guys from this draft still kicking around the league as well: Alex Lewis with the Jets and Kamalei Correa with the Titans are useful role players. 

3 — 2011

Draft Return: 3.69% (8)

Draft Return vs. Draft Capital: 138% (4)

This was a two-player draft with some sneaky depth as far as Baltimore is concerned, but it shows how good your team does if it nails it’s top two picks. Jimmy Smith has been a lifetime Raven out of the 27th pick, and Torrey Smith was a very successful deep threat wideout for four years with Baltimore before leaving in free agency. Further down the depth chart you have Pernell McPhee at 165th overall, a guy that doesn’t score very well in AV because of his lack of starts but an incredibly useful role player who even played well last season. Finally, at 180th they got Tyrod Taylor. Taylor did almost nothing for the Ravens, because they were committed to Joe Flacco, but peaked as a solid starting quarterback with the Bills and even made a playoff start. That’s a great return out of a pick that low. 

4 — 2013

Draft Return: 4.68% (3)

Draft Return vs. Draft Capital: 175% (3)

Unlike 2011, which was more of a star-studded draft, this draft wildly flubbed its top two picks, but still makes the list because of the lower-round talent. Arthur Brown and Matt Elam are two of the biggest busts I can think of in recent memory. But each of the next four picks were long-time starters at worst. Brandon Williams has been an excellent nose tackle for the Ravens since the day he was picked. Rick Wagner played so well in Baltimore he priced himself out of their plans and signed a big-money deal with the Lions. John Simon has become a reliable set-the-edge OLB who has kicked around with the Texans, Colts, and Patriots. Kyle Juszczyk is the best fullback in the NFL. Oh, and at 203rd overall, they added on to the pile with the late-blossoming Ryan Jensen, one of the NFL’s highest-paid centers. 

5 — 2019

Draft Return: 3.42% (12)

Draft Return vs. Draft Capital: 118% (14)

In three years, we’ll know a lot more about how we need to judge this class. I’m taking the optimistic point of view on it right now. I think Marquise Brown showed star-level tools when he was healthy last season, and I think Jaylon Ferguson will get his chance at a real role in 2020. While I think the J.K. Dobbins pick kind of robs some upside from Justice Hill, I think both Miles Boykin and Ben Powers have ceilings that could change how we think of this draft class in 2022. I’m weighting that upside pretty high here, but with three players who could still blossom into good-to-great players, I think this class could turn out pretty well for Baltimore.

6 — 2014

Draft Return: 3.65% (10)

Draft Return vs. Draft Capital: 108% (13)

Hitting on C.J. Mosely is a pretty great start to a draft. Unfortunately, a lot of the rest of this draft has had some star-crossed luck. Michael Campanaro looked like he’d be a thing for a bit but never could stay healthy. Tim Jernigan has been a solid interior defensive lineman but was kind of priced out of Baltimore by Michael Pierce’s development and hasn’t been able to stay healthy in Philadelphia. Brent Urban is a solid interior run stuffer, and Terrence Brooks has been a reliable special teamer for four different organizations.