Retaining Key Ravens Should Take Precedent Over Adding Jamal Adams

Rumors of Jamal Adams wanting out of New York, and being linked to Baltimore, came out a couple months back, but the talk picked up steam this week with Adams officially demanding a trade, and the Ravens being one of the seven teams he listed as a place he would like to go. The only other team on the list the Ravens have to worry about…the Chiefs.

Adams, 2017 sixth overall pick out of LSU, has made an impact since day one. Starter as a rookie. Pro Bowl in 2018. All-Pro in 2019. That said, he’s only picked off two passes in his career. Though he’s got 12 sacks and six forced fumbles as a strong safety rather than a ball hawking free safety.

Ravens fans begin salivating at the idea of adding Adams to the Ravens secondary with Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, and Earl Thomas. The Ravens already sport the NFL’s best secondary and adding Adams would make it seemingly unfair for opposing quarterbacks.

But let’s take a step back.

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If you add Adams, you push Chuck Clark out of the starting lineup. Chuck Clark wears the green dot and quarterbacks the defense. He’s been heralded for his football IQ and his leadership ability, and it wasn’t much of a coincidence that the Ravens defense found its groove in 2019 when Clark took over the dot. Is this a responsibility you want to pass on to someone else? It’s not broke, why try to fix it? Could Patrick Queen wear it in his rookie year? Could an outsider like Adams wear it while trying to learn a new system, in this awkward offseason we’ve had where meetings are virtual and nothing happing on the practice field yet? Earl Thomas, maybe?

You can’t ignore the cost it would take to acquire Adams. He can demand trades all day long, but the Jets have to get a deal they like, or else Adams plays, or holds out, under his rookie contract with them. Jalen Ramsey was traded from the Jaguars to the Rams in 2019 for two, first round picks, and a fourth-round pick. The Ravens are the best drafters in the NFL. If that is close to the asking price, do you want them to be absent from the first round of the next two drafts? Even if they go on to do big things in 2020 and 2021, there are still needs. There are always needs.

Those needs become compounded when you consider that giving up what it likely takes to get Adams, means you better look to give him a contract extension upon arrival. He’s coming off an All-Pro nod, so you aren’t getting a value deal. You’ll pay top dollar. When you extend Adams, you won’t be able to extend Matt Judon. What is more important, All-Pro safety, or Pro Bowl edge rusher? You won’t be able to extend Ronnie Stanley. What is more important. All-Pro Safety or All-Pro left tackle? That one is easy, and I’ll circle back to Stanley in a moment.

In short, adding Jamal Adams costs possibly two first round picks and a contract extension. It could also cost you Ronnie Stanley, or Matt Judon, or Marlon Humphrey in the long run if you can’t find money for them under the cap. You have to then fill some more important positions than safety, and don’t have the first-round picks to do it.

Trading for Jamal Adams would be a good move if you have one last bullet to fire. If the window is just about closed on your championship dreams before your team needs an overhaul. But the Ravens aren’t in that position. They have a three-year window with reigning MVP Lamar Jackson at the helm on his team friendly rookie contract assuming the fifth year option is exercised as well.

Maybe if you are the Saints you can make this deal, where you know Drew Brees is on his way out, and you have been burned in the playoffs by game winning TD passes in recent year. You have Taysom Hill waiting in the wings and wouldn’t need that first round pick on a quarterback. You likely aren’t going 2-14 so “Tanking for Trevor” [Lawrence] is out of the question. Dare I say the Steelers are a fit as Ben Roethlisberger has taken a beating over the years and the Steeler defense is back to elite unit status. They need to be even better to make up for the offenses short comings and need a topflight secondary to thwart guys like Jackson and Patrick Mahomes whom they will likely face in important, probably playoff games for the next decade plus. They also have only 38 guys under contract for 2021 so the extension part of Adams deal is easy to figure out.

Alas, the teams Adams decided he would go play for are not the Saints, or Steelers. They are the Ravens, Cowboys, Texans, Chiefs, Eagles, 49ers, Seahawks. Now you can see why I said the only team the Ravens have to worry about is the Chiefs. The Texans are a poorly run team that I can’t ever see being dominant in the AFC, and the other places Adams would welcome going to are all NFC clubs.

I find it hard for the Ravens to be able to make any other major moves, like a Jamal Adamas move, and fit Ronnie Stanley and Matt Judon under next year’s salary cap. But without a splash signing or trade, it can be done.

At a glance, this could be Mark Ingram, Willie Snead, and Jimmy Smith’s final season on the team. Could be, as the Ravens drafted running backs two straight years in Justice Hill and J.K. Dobbins. They stacked up on receivers twice in a row, this year in Devin Duvernay and James Prosche. While using a first-round pick on Marquise Brown in 2019 as well as Miles Boykin in that draft. Jimmy Smith is another year older and doesn’t hardly ever play the full 16-game slate. Clearing those three out creates about $13.9M in cap space in 2021. But Marlon Humphrey’s fifth year option kicks in in 2021, costing them around $10.2M. Call it $3.7M more to work with. Also, the issue of dead money. They stand to recoup $16.7M for next year when dead money from 2020 clears the books, but they will also put some back on. Hopefully it’s minimal, call it under $5M depending on other moves.

Figure these few moves alone, create $15M in cap space. Other variables include how much money the Ravens carryover from the 2020 cap, how much the league increases the 2021 cap which could be a lower amount than normal if the season is affected by Covid-19. Increases on the books from other players cap numbers going up. Cap space set aside for draft picks, and in-season additions due to injuries.

A contract extension for Stanley would likely carry an average annual value of $23M+. Five years, at $115M maybe? Texans recently extended Laremy Tunsil at three years for $66M ($22M AAV). The Ravens could get Stanley’s first year cap number to land around the $15M range.

A lot can happen salary cap wise between now and 2021. They can get creative with restructuring deals of existing players. One thing is clear. There just is no room for Jamal Adams and an All-Pro sized extension if you wish to retain All-Pro Ronnie Stanley, Matt Judon, and keep valuable draft picks that the Ravens use wisely.

Priority number one needs to be locking in Ronnie Stanley, while crossing your fingers that Adams lands in the NFC or stays part of the woeful Jets.