Looking At Austin Hays

The Orioles struggled to replace Adam Jones in 2019. Austin Hays could solve that problem.

Entering the 2019 season, even the most casual Orioles fan could have identified one of the main issues with last year’s team: replacing Adam Jones was going to be a challenge.

During his time in Baltimore from 2008 to 2018, he played in the third-most games of anyone in baseball while having the fourth-most hits during that span. His power production at center field was also excellent, finishing tied with Matt Kemp for the second-most homers from a center fielder, while he ranked fourth at the position for doubles. While every position went through multiple starters during his 11 years in Baltimore, Jones was a mainstay at the position who started over 100 games every year he called Camden Yards his home. Jones appeared in all 162 games when the Orioles returned to the playoffs in 2012 and similarly played in 159 games during the 2014 division title season.

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As most everyone was already aware, Jones was an important member of the Orioles, but it’s important to put these numbers in context when looking at the production the Orioles got out of the position in 2019 and what we could expect from it in 2020.

As the 2018 season ended, the Orioles went into the offseason seeming like they had found the heir apparent to Jones: Cedric Mullins. Starting on August 10 against the Red Sox, Mullins started in center for 42 of the last 46 games of the season, with Jones moving to the corner OF positions. In August, Mullins delivered a hot start that provided real optimism: in 18 games, he had nine extra base hits, good for a .556 slugging percentage that month. However, he cooled down massively in September with a .243 slugging percentage and a .187 batting average.

While his September was concerning, going into 2019, all indications were Mullins was going to be the Orioles regular center fielder. He was installed as the Opening Day starter and proceeded to start 18 of the first 22 games of the season. There was just one, very big problem as he patrolled center: he had a .337 OPS and his 6-for-64 start produced a .094 batting average. One of the main problems for Mullins wasn’t that he was starting to strike out more often, but simply when he put the ball in play, nothing happened. According to Fangraphs, 34% of the balls he put in play were hit softly, compared to under 20% in 2018. That lackluster production resulted in Mullins being sent down, where he continued to struggle to hit at Norfolk before somewhat finding his footing at Bowie.

This demotion, which happened less than one month into the season, started a chaotic game of musical chairs for the position. Keon Broxton, who was acquired from the Mets, started in center 29 times, but produced a .611 OPS in a pretty dreadful display of offensive production. Anthony Santander, a corner outfielder, found himself in center for 20 games. Joey Rickard started there 14 times before heading to San Francisco, while Mason Williams spent seven games at the position. There was also a single occasion where Drew Jackson occupied the former position of Adam Jones. Of course, no one I’ve listed started the most games in center that year. That honor belongs to Stevie Wilkerson.

Wilkerson spent the majority of his career in the minors as a second baseman, having spent  2,523 innings at the position before making it to MLB. Meanwhile, he played just 121 innings in the outfield as a minor leaguer. Yet, no one started more games in center than Wilkerson. While he did make perhaps the best catch in Orioles history at Fenway Park, his defense was what you’d expect from an infielder being asked to play the toughest outfield position.

The medley of players at center last season stood out in contrast to the stability at the position from some of the league’s most successful teams. While no one started more than 60 games as the center fielder for the Orioles, the Nationals had Victor Robles starting there 135 times while the Rays had Kevin Kiermaier at the position 117 times. The A’s and Brewers both lost in the Wild Card Game, but Ramon Laureano and Lorenzo Cain each started in center over 100 times in helping to get their teams to that game.

The offensive production generated from Baltimore’s center field committee was one of the worst in the league. They ranked 27th in OPS, trailing just the Marlins, Mariners and Royals. For comparison, when the Orioles won 89 games in 2016, their OPS at the position ranked 11th in the league. Last season, the A’s, Astros, Yankees, Braves, Dodgers and Twins all made the postseason with a top-ten OPS from the position, proving the value of offense from the position.

While trying to replace Jones didn’t go well in 2019, there was a September call up that gave people reason to think 2020 and beyond will go better: Austin Hays. Starting on September 7th, Hays provided a .947 OPS over 75 PA, hitting the ground running in his first taste of the big leagues since a September 2017 callup.

He had a higher September OPS than established players at the position like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Lorenzo Cain, as well as other hitters like NL Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso and NL MVP Cody Bellinger. It is unlikely Hays will have a better career OPS than Alonso or Bellinger, but it demonstrates that once he got called up, he started crushing the ball. He also made an impact defensively, thanks to his home run robbery of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on September 19th.

75 PA and 21 games isn’t a reliable predictor of future success, but it’s enough to project that Hays will have a chance to be the reliable, everyday center fielder that didn’t exist in Baltimore last year. MLB.com ranks Hays as the #5 O’s prospect, while FanGraphs lists him at #7, reflecting the expectation that Hays will be a major league player going forward. He’s not going to have a .947 OPS for the rest of his career and it’s quite likely he won’t exactly be Adam Jones. However, he doesn’t need to do either of those things to be an important part of the next successful Orioles team. Simply being able to provide stability at the position and being able to start 100+ games at the position each year would go a long way towards the Orioles getting back to winning in the future.

Replacing a franchise legend is never easy, but it went especially poorly for the Orioles in 2019. 2020 going forward can be different, but only if Austin Hays makes it happen. We’ll have to see if he can do it.